Quantifying the effect of temporal variability of agro-meteorological disasters on winter oilseed rape yield: a case study in Jiangsu province, southeast China
- 44 Downloads
To address the increasing hazards of climate change to winter oilseed rape production in Jiangsu province, southeast China, a total of 12 agro-meteorological disaster indices (MDI) during 1961–2012 was applied to quantify the disaster impacts of spring precipitation extremes, autumn droughts, winter freezing injuries, and spring chilling injuries. The main findings were as follows: (1) due to the obvious north-south gradient of MDI, this province was classified as four climactic sub-regions: north, central-north, central-south, and south Jiangsu, respectively; (2) in central-north, central-south, and south Jiangsu, the maximum length of dry spell during autumn (DI3), the maximum duration of consecutive rainfalls during spring (PI3), and number of rainy days during spring (PI1) were selected as the leading MDI affecting oilseed rape yield, respectively; (3) each 1d of DI3, PI3, and PI1 increase would result in yield losses of 0.7%, 3.6%, and 1.7% in central-north, central-south, and south Jiangsu, respectively; (4) compared to the weak changes in spring rainfall and autumn drought, the significant weakening of winter-spring cold extremes across Jiangsu had more notable yield increasing effects, especially the strong decrease of freezing events during winter had increased yield by up to 1.4–3.0%.
KeywordsWinter oilseed rape Jiangsu China Agro-meteorological disaster indices
This paper is mainly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC1506606), Jiangsu Province Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars (BK20170102), Climate Change Program of China Meteorological Administration (CCSF201809), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu, China (BK20180939), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41801013).
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
- Ding, Y. H. (1990). Buildup, air-mass transformation and propagation of Siberian High and its relations to cold surge in East Asia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 44(1–4), 281–292.Google Scholar
- Gong, D. Y., & Wang, S. W. (1999). Long-term variability of the Siberian High and the possible connection to global warming. Acta Geographica Sinica, 54(2), 125–133.Google Scholar
- Hou, W., Chen, C., Qiao, H., Sun, X., & Zhou, S. (2018). Temporal-spatial characteristics of rape freezing injury in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1980-2009. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin., 27(7), 1501–1508 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Huang, J., Zhou, L., Zhang, F., Hu, Z., & Li, Y. (2019). Regional climate-yield relationship for winter oilseed rape in Jiangsu Province, Southeast China. International Journal of Plant Production. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42106-019-00038-8.
- Ju, Y. Q., Yang, F. Y., Ma, D. L., et al. (2017). Temporal and spatial analysis of rape waterlogging in Jianghuai region. Journal of Natural Disasters., 26(6), 136–146 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Li, B., Che, Y., & Shi, X. (2012). Why does the temperature rise faster in the arid region of northwest China? Journal of Geophysical Research, 117(D16).Google Scholar
- Liu, T., & Yan, T. C. (2011). Main meteorological disasters in China and their economic losses. Journal of Natural Disaster, 2, 92–95 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Lu, K. D., Peng, L. L., Huang, W. H., & Zhou, W. (2013). Meteorological disaster risk assessment of oilseed rape under climate change conditions. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 34(2), 191–196 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Soltani, M., Laux, P., Kunstmann, H., Stan, K., Sohrabi, M. M., Molanejad, M., Sabziparvar, A. A., Ranjbar SaadatAbadi, A., Ranjbar, F., Rousta, I., Zawar-Reza, P., Khoshakhlagh, F., Soltanzadeh, I., Babu, C. A., Azizi, G. H., & Martin, M. V. (2016). Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 126(3–4), 775–795.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Xiong, J., Zou, X., Zou, X., Li, S., Chen, L., & Song, L. (2015). Effects of drought stress on agronomic traits and yield of different rapeseed genotypes. Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences, 31(3), 494–499 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Yang, X. G., Li, M. S., & Huo, Z. G. (2010). Agro-meteorological disasters and mitigation technologies. Beijing: Chemical Industry Press.Google Scholar