Heat in the Heartland: Crop Yield and Coverage Response to Climate Change Along the Mississippi River
Farmers may adapt to climate change by substituting away from the crops most severely affected. In this paper we estimate the substitution caused by a moderate change in climate in the US Midwest. We pair a 10-year panel of satellite-based crop coverage with spatially explicit soil data and a fine-scale weather data set. Combining a proportion type model with local regressions, we simultaneously address the econometric issues of proportion dependent variables and spatial correlation of unobserved factors. We find the change in expected crop coverage and then we link those changes to the expected changes from an estimated climate dependent yield equation. Ceteris paribus, we find that climate induced changes in yield are offset by land coverage changes for rice and cotton but they are strongly amplified for corn and soy.
KeywordsAdaptation Climate change Crop choice Yield Production
JEL ClassificationQ15 Q54
We are grateful to Michael Roberts and Wolfram Schlenker for sharing both their weather data and expertise. The remaining errors are those of the authors.
This project was funded by the Environmental Biosciences Institute at Berkeley and Illinois.
- Huang H, Khanna M (2010) An econometric analysis of US crop yield and cropland acreage: implications for the impact of climate change. Denver, Colorado, pp 25–27Google Scholar
- Lin W, Dismukes R (2007) Supply response under risk: implications for counter-cyclical payments’ production impact. Appl Econ Perspect Policy 29(1):64–86Google Scholar
- Mueller R, Seffrin R (2006) New methods and satellites: a program update on the NASS cropland data layer acreage program. In: Remote sensing support to crop yield forecast and area estimates, ISPRS archives, vol 36, no. 8, p W48Google Scholar