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Environmental and Resource Economics

, Volume 72, Issue 2, pp 365–410 | Cite as

Global Energy Consumption in a Warming Climate

  • Enrica De CianEmail author
  • Ian Sue Wing
Article
First Online:

Abstract

We combine econometric analysis of the response of energy demand to temperature and humidity exposure with future scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development to quantify the impacts of future climate warming on final energy consumption across the world. Globally, changes in climate circa 2050 have a moderate impact on energy consumption of 7–17%, depending on the degree of warming. Impacts vary in sign and magnitude across regions, fuels, and sectors. Climatically-induced changes in energy use are larger in tropical regions. Almost all continents experience increases in energy demand, driven by the commercial and industrial sectors. In Europe declines in energy use by residences drive an overall reduction in aggregate final energy. Energy use increases in almost all G20 economies located in the tropics, while outside of Europe G20 countries in temperate regions experience both increasing and declining total energy use, depending on the incidence of changes in the frequency of hot and cold days. The effect of climate change is regressive, with the incidence of increased energy demand overwhelmingly falling on low- and middle-income countries, raising the question whether climate change could exacerbate energy poverty.

Keywords

Panel data Climate change Adaptation Energy 

JEL Classification

N5 O13 Q1 Q54 
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Notes

Acknowledgements

Funding was provided by European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) (Grant no. REA grant agreement No. 298436 (DYNAMIC)). Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea (Grant no. GEMINA).

Supplementary material

10640_2017_198_MOESM1_ESM.xlsx (75 kb)
Regression summary tables are available in the online Appendix (Excel 76 KB)

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici and Fondazione Eni Enrico MatteiVeniceItaly
  2. 2.Department of Earth and EnvironmentBoston UniversityBostonUSA

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