European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research

, Volume 25, Issue 4, pp 379–390 | Cite as

Evolution and Predictors of the Homicide Rate in Turkish Provinces: Evidence from Panel Data

  • Ceyhun ElginEmail author


This study explores the evolution and predictors of the homicide rate in 81 Turkish provinces from 1997 to 2015. Using regression analysis, it is demonstrated that several socio-economic factors are significantly associated with the level of the homicide rate. Moreover, the effects of the socio-economic factors change when the breakdown of the homicide rate with respect to two key demographic factors, age and gender, are also incorporated into the analysis.


Homicide rate Turkey Panel data 



I thank Elif Sercen Nurcan for excellent research assistance.


  1. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Arvanites, T. M., & Defina, R. H. (2006). Business cycles and street crime. Criminology, 44, 139–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Baller, R. D., Anselin, L., Messner, S. F., Deane, G., & Hawkins, D. F. (2001). Structral covariates of U.S. county homicide rates: incorporating spatial effects. Criminology, 39, 561–588.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Becker, G. S. (1968). Crime and punishment: an economic approach. Journal of Political Economy, 76, 169–217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Blumstein, A., & Rosenfeld, R. (1998). Explaining recent trends in US homicide rates. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 88(4), 1175–1216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Buonanno, P., Fergusson, L., & Vargas, J. F. (2017). The crime Kuznets curve. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 33(4), 753–782.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bursik, R. J., & Grasmick, H. G. (1993). Neighbourhood and crime: The dimensions of effective community control. New York: Lexington Book.Google Scholar
  8. Bushway, S., Cook P. J., & Phillips, M.(2012). “The Overall Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime,” German Economic Review, 13(4), 436–446.Google Scholar
  9. Cantor, D., & Land, K. C. (1985). Unemployment and crime rates in the post-world war II United States: a theoretical and empirical analysis. American Sociological Review, 50, 317–332.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Cantor, D., & Land, K. C. (2001). Unemployment and crime rate fluctuations: a comment on greenberg. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 17, 329–342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Cole, J. H., & Gramajo, A. M. (2009). Homicide rates in a cross-section of countries: evidence and interpretations. Population and Development Review, 35, 749–776.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Daly, M., Wilson, M., & Vasev, S. (2001). Income inequality and homicide rates in Canada and the United States. Canadian Journal of Criminology, 43(2), 219–236.Google Scholar
  13. Doğan, R. (2014a). Different cultural understandings of honor that inspire killing: an inquiry into the defendant’s perspective. Homicide Studies, 18(4), 363–388.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Doğan, R. (2014b). The profiles of victims, perpetrators, and unfounded beliefs in honor killings in Turkey. Homicide Studies, 18(4), 389–416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Doğan, R. (2016). The dynamics of honor killings and the perpetrators’ experiences. Homicide Studies, 20(1), 53–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ehrlich, I. (1973). Participation in illegitimate activities: a theoretical and empirical investigation. Journal of Political Economy, 87, 521–565.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Fedakar, R., Gündoğmuş, U. N., & Turkmen, N. (2007). Firearm-related deaths in two industrial cities of Turkey and their province. Legal Medicine, 9(1), 14–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hansmann, H. N., & Quigley, J. M. (1983). Population heterogenity and the sociogenesis of homicide. Social Forces, 61(1), 206–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hirschi, T., & Gottfredson, M. (1983). Age and the explanation of crime. American Journal of Sociolology, 89, 552–584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Hirschi, T., & Gottfredson, M. (1990). A general theory of crime. Stanford: Stanford Univ. Press.Google Scholar
  21. Krahn, H., Hartnagel, T. F., & Gartrell, J. W. (1986). Income inequality and homicide rates: cross-national data and criminological theories. Criminology, 24, 269–294.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Merton, R. (1938). Social structure and anomie. American Sociological Review, 3, 672–682.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Nolan, J. J. (2004). Establishing the statistical relationship between population size and UCR crime rate: its impact and implications. Journal of Criminal Justice, 32, 547–555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. O’Brien, R. (1983). Metropolitan structure and violent crime: which measure of crime. American Sociological Review, 48, 434–437.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Ogburn, W. (1935). Factors in the variation of crime among cities. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 30(189), 12–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Ouimet, M. (2012). A world of homicides: the effect of economic development, income inequality, and excess infant mortality on the homicide rate for 165 countries in 2010. Homicide Studies, 16(3), 238–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Pridemore, W. A., & Trent, C. L. S. (2010). Do the invariant findings of land, McCall, and Cohen generalize to cross-national studies of social structure and homicide? Homicide Studies, 14, 296–335.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Rosenfeld, R., & Fornango, R. (2007). The impact of economic conditions on robbery and property crime: the role of consumer sentiment. Criminology, 45, 735–769.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Rosenfeld, R., & Messner, S. F. (2009). The crime drop in comparative perspective: the impact of the economy and imprisonment on American and European burglary rates. British Journal of Sociology, 60, 445–471.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Rosenfeld, R. (2014). “Crime and Inflation in Cross-National Perspective.” Crime and Justice, 43, 341–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Sampson, R. J., & Groves, W. B. (1989). Community structure and crime: testing social-disorganization theory. American Journal of Sociology, 94(4), 774–802.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Skogan, W. G. (1974). The validity of official crime statistics: an empirical investigation. Social Science Quarterly, 54, 25–28.Google Scholar
  33. South, S. J., & Messner, S. F. (2000). Crime and demographie: multiple linkages, reciprocal relations. Annual Review of Sociology, 26, 83–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Wilson, J. Q. (1975). Thinking about crime. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of EconomicsBogazici UniversityIstanbulTurkey

Personalised recommendations