Advertisement

Past and future climate change over the Himalaya–Tibetan Highland: inferences from APHRODITE and NEX-GDDP data

  • Saroj K. Mishra
  • Shipra JainEmail author
  • Popat Salunke
  • Sandeep Sahany
Letter

Abstract

The Himalaya–Tibetan Highland (HTH) is highly vulnerable to climate change for multiple reasons. In this work, we present past and future changes in HTH climate, using temperature and precipitation from APHRODITE, CMIP5 and NEX-GDDP. To assess observed climate change, we analysed APHRODITE and found significant warming (up to 3 °C) during all seasons but no significant change in precipitation. We validated CMIP5 and NEX-GDDP against APHRODITE and found the latter more accurate. Future climate projections under RCP8.5 using NEX-GDDP suggest widespread warming (~5–8 °C) and increase in monsoon and post-monsoon precipitation (up to ~50%) over HTH by the end of the twenty-first century.

Keywords

Himalaya Tibetan plateau Climate change APHRODITE NEX-GDDP CMIP5 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP5. We also thank different modelling and observation centres for providing the NEX-GDDP, CMIP5 and APHRODITE data. The work is partly supported by the DST Centre of Excellence in Climate Modeling. PS is thankful to MHRD, India and IIT Delhi for providing his PhD fellowship. We are also thankful to the three anonymous reviewers and editors for their comments and suggestions on this paper.

Supplementary material

10584_2019_2473_MOESM1_ESM.docx (2.2 mb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 2254 kb)

References

  1. Chen D, Xu B, Yao T et al (2015) Assessment of past, present and future environmental changes on the Tibetan plateau. Chin Sci Bull 60:3025–3035Google Scholar
  2. Chen L, Frauenfeld OW (2014) A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation simulations over China based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections. J Geophys Res-Atmos 119(10):5767–5786Google Scholar
  3. Dash SK, Mishra SK, Pattnayak KC et al (2015) Projected seasonal mean summer monsoon over India and adjoining regions for the 21st century. Theor Appl Climatol 122(3-4):581–593CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Duan AM, Wu GX, Zhang Q, Liu YM (2006) New proofs of the recent climate warming over the Tibetan plateau as a result of the increasing greenhouse gases emissions. Chin Sci Bull 51(11):1396–1400CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. IPCC (2013) Climate change (2013) the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  6. Jain S, Mishra SK, Salunke P, Sahany S (2019) Importance of the resolution of surface topography vis-à-vis atmospheric and surface processes in the simulation of the climate of Himalaya-Tibet Highland. Clim Dyn 52:4735.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4411-0
  7. Kang S, Xu Y, You Q, Flügel W, Pepin N, Yao T (2010) Review of climate and cryospheric change in the Tibetan plateau. Environ Res Lett 5:015101.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/015101 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Lin C, Yang K, Qin J, Fu R (2013) Observed coherent trends of surface and upper-air wind speed over China since 1960. J Clim 26:2891–2903CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Liu X, Chen B (2000) Climatic warming in the Tibetan plateau during recent decades. Int J Climatol 20:1729–1742CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Liu X, Yan L (2017) Elevation-dependent climate change in the Tibetan plateau. In: Oxford research encyclopedia of climate science.  https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.593
  11. Niu T, Chen LX, Zhou ZJ (2004) The characteristics of climate change over the Tibetan plateau in the last 40 years and the detection of climatic jumps. Adv Atmos Sci 21:193–203CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Thrasher B et al (2012) Technical note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16:3309–3314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Wu J, Xu Y, Gao XJ (2017) Projected changes in mean and extreme climates over Hindu Kush Himalayan region by 21 CMIP5 models. Adv Clim Chang Res 8(3):176–184CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Xu X et al (2008) A new integrated observational system over the Tibetan plateau. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:1492–1496CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Yang K et al (2012) Can aerosol loading explain the solar dimming over the Tibetan plateau? Geophys Res Lett 39:L20710.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053733 Google Scholar
  17. Yao T, Wang Y, Liu S et al (2004) Recent glacial retreat in high Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China. Sci China Ser D47:1065–1075Google Scholar
  18. Yasutomi N, Hamada A, Yatagai A (2011) Development of a long-term daily gridded temperature dataset and its application to rain/snow discrimination of daily precipitation. Glob Environ Res V15N2:165–172Google Scholar
  19. Yatagai A, Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O et al (2012) APHRODITE: constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1401–1415.  https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00122.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. You Q, Min J, Kang S (2016) Rapid warming in the Tibetan Plateau from observations and CMIP5 models in recent decades. Int J Climatol 36(6):2660–2670CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. You QL, Kang S, Pepin N, Flügel W-A, Sanchez-Lorenzo A, Yan Y, Zhang Y (2010) Climate warming and associated changes in atmospheric circulation in the eastern and central Tibetan plateau from ahomogenized dataset. Glob. Planet. Change 72(1):11–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Zhang D, Xiao C, Qin D (2009) Himalayan glaciers fluctuation over the latest decades and its impact on water resources. J Glaciol Geocryol 31:885–895Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Saroj K. Mishra
    • 1
  • Shipra Jain
    • 1
    Email author
  • Popat Salunke
    • 1
  • Sandeep Sahany
    • 1
  1. 1.Centre for Atmospheric SciencesIndian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi)New DelhiIndia

Personalised recommendations