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Effects of climate change on sugarcane production in the state of Paraíba (Brazil): a panel data approach (1990–2015)

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Abstract

Climate change is one of the most relevant challenges faced by contemporary societies. The effects of climate variability emphasize the agricultural vulnerability of a location, especially through the dependence of agriculture on climatic factors. This work analyzed the impacts of climatic elements on sugarcane production for municipalities of the state of Paraíba, Brazil, from 1990 to 2015. We investigated how the behavior of climatic elements influenced each mesoregion. Through the production function, a regression with panel data was estimated using the pooled, fixed, and random effects models. To verify which model was most appropriate, the Chow, Hausman, Breusch-Pagan, and Wooldridge tests were performed. According to the tests, the most suitable model was the pooled model. The results showed the impacts of climatic parameters on sugarcane production in the municipalities of Paraíba state, Brazil. Rainfall was positively correlated with production, whereas the temperature negatively influenced production. A heterogeneous response of the impacts on the mesoregions was noted, with the municipalities belonging to the mesoregion of Mata Paraibana having a higher probability of producing sugarcane than other mesoregions.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) (Projects 305419/2015-3 and 401687/2016-3) for their support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center of Alternative and Renewable Energy, Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB), Cidade Universitária, Campus I, 58, João Pessoa, Paraíba, 051-900, Brazil

    Wallysson Klebson de Medeiros Silva, Graziela Pinto de Freitas, Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior & Raphael Abrahão

  2. Department of Business Administration, University of Pernambuco (UPE), Salgueiro, Pernambuco, Brazil

    Pablo Aurélio Lacerda de Almeida Pinto

Authors
  1. Wallysson Klebson de Medeiros Silva
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  2. Graziela Pinto de Freitas
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  3. Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior
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  4. Pablo Aurélio Lacerda de Almeida Pinto
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  5. Raphael Abrahão
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Correspondence to Raphael Abrahão.

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de Medeiros Silva, W.K., de Freitas, G.P., Coelho Junior, L.M. et al. Effects of climate change on sugarcane production in the state of Paraíba (Brazil): a panel data approach (1990–2015). Climatic Change 154, 195–209 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02424-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02424-7

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