Climatic Change

, Volume 153, Issue 1–2, pp 91–103 | Cite as

Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran

  • Hamzeh Ahmadi
  • Gholamabbas Fallah GhalhariEmail author
  • Mohammad Baaghideh


Climate change is the most important challenge for human advance in the future. The horticultural sector is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. In the present study, to reveal the climate change of the future period on the apple tree cultivation areas in Iran, the simulated data from the HadGEM2-ES coupled model output from the CMIP5 model series under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios as cynical and optimistic scenarios. The results showed that the increase of air temperature under the conditions of climate change is a serious stress for the deciduous trees in cold regions of Iran because it will reduce the regions for cultivating trees like apples. Climate change and changes in temperature patterns will cause changes in agroclimatic indexes associated with fruit trees. Typically, the minimum and maximum temperature of the apple tree growth period during the baseline will change according to the pessimistic scenario from 11.6 and 27.3 °C to 16.7 and 33.4 °C in the 2090s. Changes in the temperature indices and agroclimatic indices are higher than the vulnerability threshold for apple trees, showing the effect of climate change on fruit trees. In the upcoming period, the suitable area for apple tree cultivation in Iran will reach 29,073,448 ha. In fact, 46.7% of apple tree cultivation areas will be lost. Under the climate change conditions, the cultivation of apple trees in Iran will be extended to higher regions. An increase in air temperature will threaten deciduous trees in the cold regions of Iran.



The authors also thank the Iranian Meteorological Organization for providing the required research data.


  1. Ahmadi H (2018) The assessment of climate change impacts on apple trees in Iran. PhD Thesis, Hakimsabzevary University, Sabzevar, IranGoogle Scholar
  2. Avolio A, Orlandi F, Bellecci C (2012) Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy). Theor Appl Climatol 107(3–4):531–540CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bani Hashemi Z (2016) Climate change and plant diseases. Journal of strategic research in agricultural sciences and natural. Resources 1(2):172–165Google Scholar
  4. Bellouin N, Collins WJ, Culverwell ID, Halloran PR, Hardiman SC, Hinton TJ et al (2011) The HadGEM2 family of Met Office unified model climate configurations. Geosci Model Dev 4:723–757Google Scholar
  5. Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M, Gedney N, Halloran P, Hinton T, Hughes J, Jones CD (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system model – HadGEM2. Geosci Model Dev 4:1051–1075CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Darbyshir R, Webb L, Goodwin I, Barlow EWR (2013) Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia. Int J Biometeorol 57(3):355–366CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Erez A, Fishman S (1997) The dynamic model for chilling evaluation in peach buds. In IV International Peach Symposium 465:507–510Google Scholar
  8. Ferree DC, Warrington IJ (2003) Apples: botany, production and uses. CABI, LondonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Georgopoulou E, Mirasgedis S, Sarafidis Y, Vitaliotou M, Lalas DP, Theloudis I, Giannoulaki KD, mopoulos D, Zavras V (2017) Climate change impacts and adaptation options for the Greek agriculture in 2021–2050: a monetary assessment. Clim Risk Manag 16:164–182CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ghahraman N, Babayan I, Tabatabaee SMR (2016) Investigation the effect of climate change on sugarcane growing season and water requirement under RCP scenarios. J Water Soil Conserv 6(1):63–74Google Scholar
  11. Grab S, Craparo A (2011) Advance of apple and pear tree full bloom dates in response to climate change in the southwestern cape, South Africa: 1973–2009. Agric For Meteorol 151(3):406–413CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gutierrez AP, Ponti L, Cossu QA (2009) Effects of climate warming on olive and olive fly Bactrocera oleae (Gmelin) in California and Italy. Clim Chang 95(1–2):195–217CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hur A, Ahn JB (2015) The change of first-flowering date over South Korea projected from downscaled IPCC AR5 simulation: peach and pear. Int J Climatol 35:1926–1937CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Jones PG, Thornton PK (2013) Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications. Agric Syst 114:1–5CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Machovina B, Feeley KJ (2013) Climate change driven shifts in the extent and location of areas suitable for export banana production. Ecol Econ 95:3–95CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Nouri M, Homaee M, Bannayan M, Hoogenboom G (2017) Towards shifting planting date as an adaptation practice for rainfed wheat response to climate change. Agric Water Manag 186:108–119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Parker LE, Abatzoglou JT (2018) Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change. Climate Change 147:211–224CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Ramirez A, Davenport TL (2013) Apple pollination: a review. Sci Hortic 162:188–203CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Ramirez F, Kallarackal J (2015) Responses of fruit trees to the global climate change. Springer Cham Heidelberg New York, DordrechtGoogle Scholar
  20. Sabziparvar AA Valashedi RN (2015) The Effect of climate change on chilling requirement supplying trend decidous plants (Case study: Hamedan province). J Hortic Sci 293:358–367Google Scholar
  21. Samadi Yazdi B (2017) Application of prospective Technologies in Food Security in Iran and the world, journal of strategic research in agricultural science and natural. Resources 2(1):28–15Google Scholar
  22. Turkman M (2015) Study of the effect of climate change and heating on crop properties and potato production in Iran. PhD dissertation. Ferdowsi University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Ecology of Crops, MashhadGoogle Scholar
  23. Vlashedi R N Sabziparvar A A (2015) Evaluation of winter chill requirement models using the observed apple tree phenology data in Kahriz (Urmia, Iran). Iranian Journal of Horticultural Science 47(3):570–561Google Scholar
  24. Wang HQ, Ge J, Dai Z, Tao N (2015) Geographical pattern in first bloom variability and its relation to temperature sensitivity in the USA and China. Int J Biometeorol 59:961–969CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Wang W, Sun F, Luo Y, Xu J (2012) Changes of rice water demand and irrigation water requirement in Southeast China under future climate change. Proc Eng 28:341–345CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Yacobzada M, Ahmadi M, Boroumand Nasab S, Haghayeghi Moghaddam SA (2016) The effect of climate change on the evolution-transpirational changes during growth of plants in hydroponic and dryland plants using paired models. J Water Res Agric 30(4):523–512Google Scholar
  27. Yoo SH, Choi JY, Nam WH, Hong E (2012) Analysis of design water requirement of paddy rice using frequency analysis affected by climate change in South Korea. Agric Water Manag 112:33–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Zaied YB, Zouabi O (2016) Impacts of climate change on Tunisian olive oil output. Climate Change 139:353–549CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Zhang Y, Wang Y, Niu H (2017) Spatio-temporal variations in the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize in China under future climate scenarios. Total Environ 601–602:518–531CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Zhao L, Xu J, Powell AM, Jiang Z (2015) Uncertainties of the global-to-regional temperature and precipitation simulations in CMIP5 models for past and future 100 years. Theor Appl Climatol 122:259–270CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental SciencesHakim Sabzevari UniversitySabzevarIran

Personalised recommendations