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Projected climate change impacts on Indiana’s Energy demand and supply

  • Leigh RaymondEmail author
  • Douglas Gotham
  • William McClain
  • Sayanti Mukherjee
  • Roshanak Nateghi
  • Paul V. Preckel
  • Peter Schubert
  • Shweta Singh
  • Elizabeth Wachs
Article

Abstract

This paper estimates changes in future energy demand and supply for Indiana due to projected climate change impacts. We first estimate demand changes under both the business-as-usual emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and a scenario based on reduced emissions consistent with a 2-degree increase in global mean temperature (RCP 4.5), on both a statewide basis and for major urban areas. We then use our adjusted statewide energy demand projections as an input to a comprehensive model of Indiana’s energy system, to project expected changes in the state’s energy supply under both scenarios. Finally, we consider the potential impacts of two policy scenarios—a carbon pricing scheme and a renewable energy investment tax credit—on emissions and future energy supply choices. Our results suggest that climate change will have a relatively modest effect on energy demand and supply in Indiana, slightly increasing commercial demand and decreasing residential demand but having little effect on energy supply choices. In addition, our results suggest the potential for policy proposals currently being adopted in other states, such as a relatively small carbon price or investment credits for renewable energy sources, to have a larger impact on the state’s future energy mix, increasing production from low or zero carbon energy sources and reducing emissions.

Notes

Acknowledgments

This paper is a contribution to the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (INCCIA). The IN CCIA is managed and supported by the Purdue Climate Change Research Center. The authors would like to acknowledge support for this research from the Purdue Center for the Environment, the Purdue Climate Change Research Center, as well as National Science Foundation grants #1728209 and #1826161, and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Hatch project 1016213.

Supplementary material

10584_2018_2299_MOESM1_ESM.docx (478 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 478 kb)
10584_2018_2299_MOESM2_ESM.docx (28 kb)
ESM 2 (DOCX 28 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Leigh Raymond
    • 1
    Email author
  • Douglas Gotham
    • 2
  • William McClain
    • 2
  • Sayanti Mukherjee
    • 3
  • Roshanak Nateghi
    • 3
  • Paul V. Preckel
    • 2
  • Peter Schubert
    • 4
  • Shweta Singh
    • 5
  • Elizabeth Wachs
    • 5
  1. 1.Department of Political Science and Purdue Climate Change Research CenterPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA
  2. 2.State Utility Forecasting Group, Discovery ParkPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA
  3. 3.Department of Industrial Engineering and Department of Environmental and Ecological EngineeringPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA
  4. 4.Richard G. Lugar Center for Renewable Energy, Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringIndiana University Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)IndianapolisUSA
  5. 5.Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering and Department of Environmental and Ecological EngineeringPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA

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