Abstract
Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO2 fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.
References
Aggarwal PK, Mall RK (2002) Climate change and rice yields in diverse agro-environments of India. II. Effect of uncertainties in scenarios and crop models on impact assessment. Clim Chang 52:331–343
Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Chang 5(2):37–64
Balkovič J, van der Velde M, Skalský R et al (2014) Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways. Glob Planet Chang 122:107–121
Batjes NH, 2006 ISRIC-WISE derived soil properties on a 5 by 5 arc-minutes global grid. International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), Wageningen, the Netherlands
Cai C, Yin X, He S et al (2016) Responses of wheat and rice to factorial combinations of ambient and elevated CO2 and temperature in FACE experiments. Glob Chang Biol 22(2):856–874
Cai H, Chen Q (2000) Rice research in China in the early 21st century. Chinese Rice Res Newsletter 8:14–16
Cantelaube P, Terres JM (2005) Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modeling in Europe. Tellus A 57A:476–487
Cao XX, Wan SQ, Ming WU (2014) Determination of optimum sowing date and analysis of climate risk for early-rice in Hubei Province. Chin J Agrometeorol 35(4):429–433
Cassman KG, Dobermann AD, Walters D, Yang H (2003) Meeting cereal demand while protecting natural resources and improving environmental quality. Annu Rev Environ Resour 28:315–358
FAO (2013) FAO statistical yearbook world food and agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, pp 1–289
Hnilica J, Hanel M, Puš V (2016) Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models. Int J Climatol, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4890
Hu Q, Yang N, Pan F, Pan X, Wang X, Yang P (2017) Adjusting sowing dates improved potato adaptation to climate change in semiarid region, China. Sustainability 9:615
Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ et al (2003) The DSSAT croppingsystem model. Eur J Agron 18:235–265
Jones PG, Thornton PK (1993) A rainfall generator for agricultural applications in the tropics. Agric Forest Meteorol 63:1–19
Jones PG, Thornton PK (1997) Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall related to a third-order Markov model. Agric Forest Meteorol 86:127–138
Jones PG, Thornton PK (2013) Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications. Agr Syst 114:1–5
Jones PG, Thornton PK (2015) Representative soil profiles for the Harmonized World Soil Database at different spatial resolutions for agricultural modelling applications. Agr Syst 139:93–99
Katz RW (2002) Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Clim Res 20:167–185
Li Z, Liu S, Guo S, Wang D (2015) Predicting the impact of future climate change on rice yield in Northeast China. J China Agricultural University 20(2):223–228
Liu L, Wang E, Zhu Y et al (2013) Effects of warming and autonomous breeding on the phenological development and grain yield of double-rice systems in China. Agric Ecosyst Environ 165(3):28–38
Ludwig F, Asseng S (2010) Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates. Agric Syst 103:127–136
Lv Z, Liu X, Cao W, Zhu Y (2013a) Climate change impacts on regional winter wheat production in the mainly wheat-growing regions of China. Agric For Meteorol 171–172:234–248
Lv Z, Liu X, Tang L, Liu L, Cao W, Zhu Y (2013b) A method for correcting the meteorological data from regional climate model and its application in crop simulation. Sci Agric Sin 46(16):3334–3343
Lv Z, Liu X, Tang L, Liu L, Cao W, Zhu Y (2013c) Regional Prediction and Evaluation of Wheat Phenology Based on the WheatGrow and CERES Models. Scientia Agricultura Sinica 46(6):1136–1148
Lv Z, Liu X, Tang L, Liu L, Cao W, Zhu Y (2016) Estimation of ecotype-specific cultivar parameters in a wheat phenology model and uncertainty analysis. Agric For Meteorol 221:219–229
Lv Z, Liu X, Cao W, Zhu Y (2017) A model-based estimate of regional wheat yield gaps and water use efficiency in main winter wheat production regions of china. Sci Rep 7(1):6081
Maclean JL, Dawe DC, Hardy B, Hettel GP (2002) Rice almanac, third edition, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Philippines 1-253
Makowski D, Wallach D, Tramblay M (2002) Using a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation; comparison of the GLUE and MCMC methods. Agronomie 22:191–203
Masutomi Y, Takahashi K, Harasawa H, Matsuoka Y (2009) Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Asia in comprehensive consideration of process/parameter uncertainty in general circulation models. Agric Ecosyst Environ 131:281–291
Peng S, Tang Q, Zou Y (2009) Current status and challenges of rice production in China. Plant Prod Sci 12(1):3–8
Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y et al (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467(7311):43
Qu H, Jiang L, Wang D (2016) Influence of climate change on sterile-type cooling injury in rice in Heilongjiang Province, China. Acta Ecol Sin 36(3):769–777
Ramirez J, Jarvis A (2008) High resolution statistically downscaled future climate surfaces. International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT); CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Cali, Colombia
Ray D, Ramankutty N, Mueller N (2012) Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nat Commun 3:1293
Richter GM, Semenov MA (2005) Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks. Agr Syst 84(1):77–97
Ritchie JT, Alocilja EC, Singh U, Uehera G (1987) IBSNAT and CERES-Rice model, in: International Rice Research Institute (Eds.), Weather and Rice-Proceedings of the International Workshop on the Impact of Weather Parameters on Growthand Yield of Rice. International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines, pp 271–281
Rosenzweig C, Elliott JM, Deryng D et al (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:3268–3273
Saxton KE, Rawls WJ (2006) Soil water characteristic estimates by texture and organic matter for hydrologic solutions. Soil Sci Soc Am J 70:1569–1578
Shen S, Yang S, Zhao Y, Xu Y, Zhao X, Wang Z, Liu J, Zhang W (2011) Simulating the rice yield change in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under SRES B2 scenario. Acta Ecol Sin 31:40–48
Shi CX, Xie ZH, Qian H et al (2011) China land soil moisture EnKF data assimilation based on satellite remote sensing data. Sci China Earth Sci 54:1430–1440. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-010-4160-3
Tao F, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z, Sakamoto T, Yokozawa M (2008) Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: developing a probabilistic assessment. Agric For Meteorol 148:94–110
Tao F, Zhang Z, Shi W et al (2013) Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981–2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Glob Chang Biol 19:3200–3209
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 93:485–498
Thornton PK, Jones PG, Alagarswamy G, Andresen J (2009) Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa. Global Environ Change 19:54–65
Van Vuuren DP et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31
Van Wart J, Kersebaum KC, Peng S, Milner M, Cassman KG (2013) Estimating crop yield potential at regional to national scales. Field Crop Res 143:34–43
Wang Y, Yan H (2014) Effect of climate change on rice production in Heilongjiang Province. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 30(9):92–98
Wang W, Yu Z, Zhang W et al (2014) Responses of rice yield, irrigation water requirement and water use efficiency to climate change in China: historical simulation and future projections. Agr Water Manage 146:249–261
Xiong W, Conway D, Xu Y et al (2008) The impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture-phase II. National level study: the impacts of climate change on cereal production in China. Final Report AEA Group, UK
Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E, Xu Y, Ju H, Jiang J, Holman I, Li Y (2009) Future cereal production in China: modelling the interaction of climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 19:34–44
Xiong W, Holman IP, You L et al (2014) Impacts of observed growing-season warming trends since 1980 on crop yields in China. Reg Environ Chang 14:7–16
Yang SB, Shen SH, Zhao XY (2010) Impacts of climate changes on rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Acta Agron Sin 36(9):1519–1528
Yang X, Chen F, Lin X et al (2015) Potential benefits of climate change for crop productivity in China. Agric For Meteorol 208:76–84
Yao F, Xu Y, Lin E (2007) Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China. Clim Chang:395–409
Zhang T, Zhu J, Wassmann R (2010) Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: an empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales (1981–2005). Agric For Meteorol 150(7):1128–1137
Zhang T, Huang Y, Yang X (2013) Climate warming over the past three decades has shortened rice growth duration in China and cultivar shifts have further accelerated the process for late rice. Glob Chang Biol 19(2):563–570
Zhang T, Yang X, Wang H (2014) Climatic and technological ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend pattern analysis. Glob Chang Biol 20(4):1289–1298
Zhu DF, Min SK (2001) Rice production in China under current and future climates. In: Matthew RB, Kropff MJ, Bachelet D, Van LHH (eds) Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in China. CAB International, Wallingford, pp 217–235
Acknowledgements
We thank Peter G. Jones for supplying the MarkSim model.
Funding
This research was supported by the Research and Development Fund of Zhejiang Agriculture and Forest University (2014FR041), the Special Program for Agriculture Science and Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture in China (201303109), and funding by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31701322 and 31401278).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
ESM 1
(DOCX 1874 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lv, Z., Zhu, Y., Liu, X. et al. Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China. Climatic Change 147, 523–537 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2151-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2151-0