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Cybernetics and Systems Analysis

, Volume 55, Issue 1, pp 141–152 | Cite as

Continuous Model for the Devastating Oscillation Dynamics of Local Forest Pest Populations in Canada*

  • A. Yu. PerevaryukhaEmail author
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  • 3 Downloads

Abstract

A sharp and prolonged change in developing population processes requires mathematical methods to be improved. Unusual phase changes in the development of mass reproduction of insect species stipulated the idea to develop a new model in which not the final form of an asymptotically stable state after bifurcations but transient modes are of importance. In concrete situations, it is proposed to consider the phenomena, which are identified with population outbreaks (non-stationary heterogeneous processes) in environmental studies, within the context of a long oscillatory mode only as peaks of the phases of sharp nonharmonic oscillations. The proposed new dynamic model in the form of a differential equation describes a decreasing pseudoperiodic damping trajectory of sudden sharp oscillations that implement a non-bifurcation scenario of spontaneous completion for a particular variant of mass forest pest reproduction. Situations in two provinces of eastern Canada are considered as examples.

Keywords

continuous model of population explosive dynamics of an insect outbreak transient oscillation mode cycle damping forest pest outbreak in Canada 

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© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and AutomationRussian Academy of SciencesSt. PetersburgRussia

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