Advertisement

Failure distribution analysis of shallow landslides under rainfall infiltration based on fragility curves

  • 110 Accesses

Abstract

The failure time of slope is essential for slope risk assessment. However, in previous studies, the safety factor and failure probability of slope have been regarded as the main research topic rather than the failure time. In this study, a stochastic failure distribution model related to the slope failure time is proposed. The stochastic failure distribution model based on fragility curves was used to analyze the failure process of shallow landslides under rainfall infiltration. The fragility curve is derived as a function of the intensity-duration of rainfall from the result of a probabilistic analysis, which considers the uncertainties of the hydraulic and mechanical properties of the soil. Then, the failure distribution analysis was performed for various rainfall conditions based on the generated fragility curves. Using the proposed failure distribution model, a chart showing the relationship between rainfall intensity and slope failure time was developed. The relationship is a kind of intensity-duration rainfall threshold for the initiation of shallow landslides. It is based on a probabilistic analysis considering the uncertainty of the soil properties. The proposed probabilistic failure distribution model could be beneficial for analyzing the failure process of hillslopes due to rainfall infiltration, and for predicting the time of landslide occurrence.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant unlimited access to the full article PDF.

US$ 39.95

Price includes VAT for USA

Subscribe to journal

Immediate online access to all issues from 2019. Subscription will auto renew annually.

US$ 99

This is the net price. Taxes to be calculated in checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

References

  1. Ali A, Huang J, Lyamin AV, Sloan SW, Griffiths DV, Cassidy MJ, Li JH (2014) Simplified quantitative risk assessment of rainfall-induced landslides modelled by infinite slopes. Eng Geol 179:102–116

  2. Bouwer H (1969) Infiltration of water into a nonuniform soil. J Irrig Drain Eng 95:451–462

  3. Bryan RB (2000) Soil erodibility and processes of water erosion on hillslope. Geomorphology 32(3):385–415

  4. Cai JS, Yeh TC, Yan EC, Hao YH, Huang SY, Wen JC (2017) Uncertainty of rainfall-induced landslides considering spatial variability of parameters. Comput Geotech 87:149–162

  5. Cho SE (2009) Infiltration analysis to evaluate the surficial stability of two-layered slopes considering rainfall characteristics. Eng Geol 105:32–43

  6. Cho SE (2014) Probabilistic stability analysis of rainfall-induced landslides considering spatial variability of permeability. Eng Geol 171:11–20

  7. Cho SE (2017) Prediction of shallow landslide by surficial stability analysis considering rainfall infiltration. Eng Geol 231:126–138

  8. Chung MC, Tan CH, Chen CH (2017) Local rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslide occurrence: Taipingshan landslide triggered by typhoon Saola. Landslides 14(1):19–33

  9. Cui Y, Jiang Y, Guo C (2019) Investigation of the initiation of shallow failure in widely graded loose soil slopes considering interstitial flow and surface runoff. Landslides 16(4):815–828

  10. Dou HQ, Han TC, Gong XN, Zhang J (2014) Probabilistic slope stability analysis considering the variability of hydraulic conductivity under rainfall infiltration-redistribution conditions. Eng Geol 183:1–13

  11. Ebeling CE (1997) An introduction to reliability and maintainability engineering. McGraw-Hill, Boston

  12. Fourie AB, Rowe D, Blight GE (1999) The effect of infiltration on the stability of the slopes of a dry ash dump. Géotechnique 49:1–13

  13. Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2007) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe. Meteorog Atmos Phys 98:239–267

  14. Jeon KH, Lee SR, Kim YT (2012) Probabilistic characteristics soil-water characteristic curve of unsaturated weathered granite-soil. J Korean Soc Hazard Mitig 12:133–139 (in Korean)

  15. Kennedy RP, Ravindra MK (1984) Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant risk studies. Nucl Eng Des 79:47–68

  16. Kim JH, Lee KW, Jeong SS, Kim GS (2014) GIS-based prediction method of landslide susceptibility using a rainfall infiltration-groundwater flow model. Eng Geol 182:63–78

  17. Lu N, Godt J (2008) Infinite slope stability under steady unsaturated seepage conditions. Water Resour Res 44:W11404

  18. Martinović K, Reale C, Gavin K (2018) Fragility curves for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on transport networks. Can Geotech J 55:852–861

  19. Mualem Y (1976) A new model for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated porous media. Water Resour Res 12:513–522

  20. Muñoz-Carpena R, Lauvernet C, Carluer N (2018) Shallow water table effects on water, sediment, and pesticide transport in vegetative filter strips - part 1: nonuniform infiltration and soil water redistribution. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 22:53–70

  21. Phoon KK, Santoso A, Quek ST (2010) Probabilistic analysis of soil-water characteristic curves. J Geotech Geoenviron 136:445–455

  22. Porter K (2019) A Beginner’s guide to fragility, vulnerability, and risk. University of Colorado Boulder. https://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-beginners-guide.pdf

  23. Pradel D, Raad G (1993) Effect of permeability on surficial stability of homogeneous slopes. J Geotech Eng 119:315–332

  24. Rahardjo H, Ong TH, Rezaur RB, Leong EC (2007) Factors controlling instability of homogeneous soil slopes under rainfall. J Geotech Geoenviron 133:1532–1543

  25. Santo A, Di Crescenzo G, Forte G, Papa R, Pirone M, Urciuoli G (2018) Flow-type landslides in pyroclastic soils on flysch bedrock in southern Italy: the Bosco de’ Preti case study. Landslides 15(1):63–82

  26. Santoso AM, Phoon KK, Quek ST (2011) Effects of soil spatial variability on rainfall-induced landslides. Comput Struct 89:893–900

  27. Shao W, Yang Z, Ni J, Su Y, Nie W, Ma X (2018) Comparison of single- and dual-permeability models in simulating the unsaturated hydro-mechanical behavior in a rainfall-triggered landslide. Landslides 15:2449–2464

  28. Take WA, Bolton MD, Wong PCP, Yeung FJ (2004) Evaluation of landslide triggering mechanisms in model fill slopes. Landslides 1:173–184

  29. Tsompanakis Y, Lagaros ND, Psarropoulos PN, Georgopoulos EC (2010) Probabilistic seismic slope stability assessment of geostructures. Struct Infrastruct Eng 6:179–191

  30. van Genuchten MT (1980) A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils. Soil Sci Soc Am J 44:892–898

  31. Vanapalli SK, Fredlund DG, Pufahl DE, Clifton AW (1996) Model for the prediction of shear strength with respect to soil suction. Can Geotech J 33:379–392

  32. Vorogushyn S, Merz B, Apel H (2009) Development of dike fragility curves for piping and micro-instability breach mechanisms. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1383–1401

  33. Wang J, Zhang D, Wang N, Gu T (2019) Mechanisms of wetting-induced loess slope failures. Landslides 16:93–953

  34. Wu XZ (2015) Development of fragility functions for slope instability analysis. Landslides 12:165–175

  35. Zhang J, Huang HW, Zhang LM, Zhu HH, Shi B (2014) Probabilistic prediction of rainfall-induced slope failure using a mechanics-based model. Eng Geol 168:129–140

  36. Zhang M, Yin Y, Huang B (2015) Mechanisms of rainfall-induced landslides in gently inclined red beds in the eastern Sichuan Basin, SW China. Landslides 12(5):973–983

  37. Zhang L, Li J, Li X, Zhang J, Zhu H (2016) Rainfall-induced soil slope failure: stability analysis and probabilistic assessment. CRC Press

Download references

Author information

Correspondence to Sung Eun Cho.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cho, S.E. Failure distribution analysis of shallow landslides under rainfall infiltration based on fragility curves. Landslides 17, 79–91 (2020) doi:10.1007/s10346-019-01257-w

Download citation

Keywords

  • Landslide
  • Fragility curve
  • Failure distribution
  • Failure probability
  • Rainfall infiltration
  • Rainfall threshold