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Development of elastic wave velocity threshold for rainfall-induced landslide prediction and early warning

  • Yulong ChenEmail author
  • Muhammad Irfan
  • Taro Uchimura
  • Yang WuEmail author
  • Fangwei YuEmail author
Original Paper


The main aim of this paper is to define an elastic wave velocity threshold for rainfall-induced landslide prediction and early warning. To achieve this goal, several key questions need to be addressed, such as what threshold of wave velocity should be employed for issuing early warning? And how such thresholds should be selected? In an attempt to answer these questions, a total of 32 centrifuge experiments were conducted on model slopes. We first determined the critical deformation prior to initiation of shear failure. Then, the corresponding wave velocities at the critical deformation were compiled to establish a threshold of wave velocity to be used for early warning of landslides. Finally, a large-scale slope model test was performed to confirm the proposed threshold of elastic wave velocity. Based on the wave monitoring results, a warning is proposed to be issued at normalized elastic wave velocity of 0.9, and the slope toe is preferable for wave monitoring.


Slope Rainfall Early warning Threshold Elastic wave velocity Centrifuge model test 



The first author would like to acknowledge the Japanese Government (MONBUKAGAKUSHO: MEXT) Scholarship for his Ph.D. scholarship during his study. The study is supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2017M620048 and 2018T110103).


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
  3. 3.Birudo Engineers, 107/C, PAF Officers ColonyLahorePakistan
  4. 4.School of Civil EngineeringGuangzhou UniversityGuangzhouChina
  5. 5.Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengduChina

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