Advertisement

Asia Europe Journal

, Volume 17, Issue 1, pp 129–143 | Cite as

India, Pakistan, and the Kashmir dispute: unpacking the dynamics of a South Asian frozen conflict

  • Sumit Ganguly
  • Michal SmetanaEmail author
  • Sannia Abdullah
  • Ales Karmazin
Original Paper

Abstract

The Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan remains at the core of one of the most intractable conflicts in modern history. This article provides a plausibility probe into the dynamics of this South Asian rivalry that is conceptually based on the dynamic understanding of “frozen conflicts” introduced in this special issue of Asia Europe Journal. We lay out the key features of the conflict vis-à-vis the redefined notion of frozen conflicts, situating the rivalry in the broader category of unresolved protracted conflicts with a looming threat of violence renewal. In turn, we examine the three transformational dynamics as they operate in this particular case: peaceful thawing, violent thawing, and conflict withering. We conclude that despite the ongoing developments within the conflict dynamics, the possibility of conflict transformation through any of the suggested pathways remains unlikely in the near future.

Notes

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the reviewers for their constructive comments and recommendations.

Funding information

We acknowledge funding by the Charles University Research Centre programme UNCE/HUM/028 (Peace Research Center Prague/Faculty of Social Sciences) and by the internal research scheme VVZ 57-04 of Metropolitan University Prague.

References

  1. Al Jazeera (2017) India rejects China’s mediation offer on Kashmir. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/india-rejects-china-mediation-offer-kashmir-170713205330786.html
  2. Anant A (2009) Identity and conflict: perspectives from the Kashmir Valley. Strateg Anal 33(5):760–773CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Baghel R, Nüsser M (2015) Securing the heights: the vertical dimension of the Siachen conflict between India and Pakistan in the Eastern Karakoram. Polit Geogr 48:24–36CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Baral JK (2002) The Agra Summit. Int Stud 39(2):289–302CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Barry E, Masood S (2015) Narendra Modi of India Meets Pakistani Premier in Surprise Visit - The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/world/asia/narendra-modi-nawaz-sharif-india-pakistan.html. Accessed 18 June 2018
  6. Bass GJ (2014) The blood telegram: Nixon, Kissinger, and a forgotten genocide. Vintage, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  7. BBC (2006) Musharraf pushes Kashmir proposal. BBC News. Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6208660.stm. Accessed 12 June 2018
  8. Bearak B (1999) The coldest war; frozen in fury on the roof of the World. New York TimesGoogle Scholar
  9. Behera NC (2016) The Kashmir conflict: multiple fault lines. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs 3(1):41–63CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bengali S (2016) India carries out ‘surgical strikes’ against Pakistan after Kashmir attack. Los Angeles Times. Available at: http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-india-pakistan-20160929-snap-story.html
  11. Bhushan B (2009) Mammohan Singh’s Balochistan blunder. Available at: https://www.indiatoday.in/latest-headlines/story/mammohan-singhs-balochistan-blunder-52425-2009-07-20. Accessed 18 June 2018
  12. Bose S (1999) Kashmir: sources of conflict, dimensions of peace. Survival 41(3):149–171CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Bratton P (2010) Signals and orchestration: India’s use of compellence in the 2001–02 crisis. Strateg Anal 34(4):594–610CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Brecher M (2016) The world of protracted conflicts. Lexington Books, LondonGoogle Scholar
  15. Chavez Fregoso C, Zivkovic N (2012) Western Sahara: a frozen conflict. Journal of Regional Security 7(2):139–150 Available at: http://www.ceeol.com/aspx/issuedetails.aspx?issueid=75c8da60-0b03-4d02-ae8c-171a6fe9ef8a&articleId=a4d924ca-db3f-4363-9789-5a6531571901 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Chawla P, Chengappa R, Gupta S (2001) Hit and run. India TodayGoogle Scholar
  17. Coleman PT (2003) Characteristics of protracted, intractable conflict: toward the development of a metaframework-I. Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 9(1):1–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Copland I (1997) The princes of India in the endgame of empire, 1917–1947. Cambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
  19. Crocker CA, Hampson FO, Aall P (2005) Grasping the nettle: analyzing cases of intractable conflict. United States Institute of Peace, Washington, D.CGoogle Scholar
  20. Dasgupta C (2014) War and diplomacy in Kashmir, 1947–48,Google Scholar
  21. Dobhal D (2017) Kashmir: the frozen conflictGoogle Scholar
  22. DW (2016) The Caucasus to the Koreas: a world of frozen conflicts. Deutsche WelleGoogle Scholar
  23. Eckstein H (1975) Case studies and theory in political science. In: Greenstein F, Polsby N (eds) Handbook of political science. political science: scope and theory. Addison-Wesley, Reading, pp 94–137Google Scholar
  24. Ganguly S (1995) Indo-Pakistani nuclear issues and the stability/instability paradox. Stud Confl Terror 18(4):325–334 Available at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10576109508435989. Accessed 2 March 2018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Ganguly Š (2001) Conflict unending: India-Pakistan tensions since 1947. Columbia University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  26. Ganguly S, Hagerty DT (2012) Fearful symmetry: India-Pakistan crises in the shadow of nuclear weapons. Oxford University Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  27. Ganguly S, Kapur SP (2010) India, Pakistan, and the bomb: debating nuclear stability in South Asia. Columbia University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  28. Ganguly S, Kraig MR (2005) The 2001–2002 Indo-Pakistani crisis: exposing the limits of coercive diplomacy. Secur Stud 14(2):290–324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Ganguly S, Wagner RH (2004) India and Pakistan: bargaining in the shadow of nuclear war. J Strateg Stud 27(3):479–507CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. George AL, Bennett A (2005) Case studies and theory development in the social sciences. MIT Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  31. Gupta P (2016) To the brink: 2001-02 India-Pakistan standoff. Indian Defence Review. Available at: http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/to-the-brink-2001-02-india-pakistan-standoff/. Accessed 26 June 2018
  32. Hussain SR (2007) Pakistan’s changing outlook on Kashmir. South Asian Survey 14(2):195–205 Available at: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/097152310701400202. Accessed 12 June 2018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Jackson R (1975) South Asian crisis: India-Pakistan-Bangladesh. Palgrave Macmillan, LondonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Jahn E (2015) World political challenges: political issues under debate - vol. 3. Srpinger, HeidelbergCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Kapur SP (2003) Nuclear proliferation, the Kargil conflict, and South Asian security. Secur Stud 13(1):79–105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Kapur SP (2005) India and Pakistan’ s unstable peace. Int Secur 30(2):127–152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Kargil Review Committee (2000) From surprise to reckoning: the Kargil Review Committee report. Sage PublicationsGoogle Scholar
  38. Khan S (2002) Nuclear proliferation dynamics in protracted conflict regions: a comparative study of South Asia and the Middle East First Edit., Aldershot, Hants, England; Burlington, VT: Ashgate Pub Ltd.Google Scholar
  39. Kienzle B (2014) The exception to the rule? The EU and India’s challenge to the non-proliferation norm. Eur Secur 24(1):36–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Kriesberg L (1993) Intractable conflicts. Peace Rev 5(4):417–421CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Ladwig WC (2008) A cold start for hot wars? The Indian army’s new limited war doctrine. Int Secur 32(3):158–190CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Levy JS (2008) Case studies: types, designs, and logics of inference. Conflict Manag Peace 25(1):1–18CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Mahapatra DA (2016) Kashmir as a protracted social conflict: examining the role of non-state actors in the policymaking process. Graduate Doctoral DissertationsGoogle Scholar
  44. Ministry of External Affairs of India (1972) Simla Agreement. Available at: https://mea.gov.in/in-focus-article.htm?19005/Simla+Agreement+July+2+1972. Accessed 18 June 2018
  45. Misra A (2007) An audit of the India-Pakistan peace process. Aust J Int Aff 61(4):506–528CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Mistry D (2009) Complexity of deterrence among new nuclear states: the India-Pakistan case. In: Paul TV, Morgan PM, Wirtz JJ (eds) Complex deterrence: strategy in the global age. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, p 345Google Scholar
  47. Najar N (2016) Gunmen killed in Pathankot, India, Air Base Attack. The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/world/asia/india-air-base-attack-pathankot.html. Accessed 18 June 2018
  48. North A (2014) Siachen dispute: India and Pakistan’s glacial fight. BBCGoogle Scholar
  49. Paul TV (2005) The India-Pakistan conflict: an enduring rivalry. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Paul TV (2014) The warrior state: Pakistan in the contemporary world. Oxford University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  51. Polgreen L (2010) Indian forces face broader revolt in Kashmir. New York TimesGoogle Scholar
  52. Raghavan S (2009) A coercive triangle: India, Pakistan, the United States, and the crisis of 2001–2002. Def Stud 9(2):242–260CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Raja Mohan C (2004) Crossing the Rubicon: the shaping of India’s new foreign policy. Palgrave Macmillan, LondonGoogle Scholar
  54. Rashid T, Singh R (2016) Uri attack: 17 soldiers killed, army says Pakistan-based Jaish involved. Hindustan Times. Available at: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/uri-attack-17-soldiers-killed-army-says-pakistan-based-jem-involved/story-0ouEllofGbL4jAvRjQ5qXN.html. Accessed 26 June 2018
  55. Ray A (2012) India, Pakistan: working towards thawing the Siachen conflict?Google Scholar
  56. Sarma AU (2001) The Agra Summit and thereafter. The HinduGoogle Scholar
  57. Schild P (2015) Local politics of reconstruction along and across Azad Kashmir’s border with Pakistan. Contemporary South Asia 23(3):292–313CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Singer JD, Small M (1982) Resort to arms: international and civil wars, 1816–1980. Sage Publications, Beverly HillsGoogle Scholar
  59. Singh P (2015) The China Pakistan economic corridor and IndiaGoogle Scholar
  60. Sisson R, Rose LE (1990) War and secession: Pakistan, India, and the creation of Bangladesh. University of California PressGoogle Scholar
  61. Sridhar S (2007) Kashmir and water: conflict and cooperation. Swords and Ploughshares 16(1):26–29Google Scholar
  62. Stavrevska E et al (2016) Agency, autonomy and compliance in (post-)conflict situations: perspective from Jammu and Kashmir, Cyprus and Bosnia-Herzegovina. In: Burgess JP, Richmond O, Samaddar R (eds) Cultures of governance and peace: a comparison of EU and Indian theoretical and policy approaches. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 88–112Google Scholar
  63. Tellis AJ, Fair CC, Medby JJ (2001) Limited conflicts under the nuclear umbrella: Indian and Pakistani lessons from the Kargil crisis. RANDGoogle Scholar
  64. UNSC (1951) UN Security Council Resolution 91. Concerning the India-Pakistan question submitted by the Representatives of United Kingdom and United States and adopted by the Security Council on March 30, 1951 (Document No. S/2017/Rev. 1). Available at: http://www.kashmirlibrary.org/kashmir_timeline/kashmir_files/uncip_1951.htm. Accessed 25 June 2018
  65. Vallacher RR et al (2011) Rethinking intractable conflict: the perspective of dynamical systems. In: Coleman PT (ed) Conflict, interdependence, and justice. Peace psychology book series. Springer, New York, pp 65–94CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Venugopal R, Yasir S (2017) The politics of natural disasters in protracted conflict: the 2014 flood in Kashmir. Oxf Dev Stud 45(4):424–442CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Wheeler NJ (2010) “I had gone to Lahore with a message of goodwill but in return we got kargil”: the promise and perils of “leaps of trust” in India-Pakistan relations. India Rev 9(3):319–344CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sumit Ganguly
    • 1
  • Michal Smetana
    • 2
    Email author
  • Sannia Abdullah
    • 3
  • Ales Karmazin
    • 4
  1. 1.Indiana UniversityBloomingtonUSA
  2. 2.Charles UniversityPragueCzech Republic
  3. 3.Center for International Security and CooperationStanford UniversityStanfordUSA
  4. 4.Department of Asian StudiesMetropolitan University PraguePragueCzech Republic

Personalised recommendations