Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 19, Issue 4, pp 1035–1046 | Cite as

Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia

  • Velјko PerovićEmail author
  • Ratko Kadović
  • Vladimir Djurdjević
  • Sonja Braunović
  • Dragan Čakmak
  • Miroslava Mitrović
  • Pavle Pavlović
Original Article


Climate change is expected to lead to more vigorous environmental changes, including soil erosion. As a reliable tool for predicting the impact of changes in climate and land use, the InVEST sediment delivery ratio model, integrated with the EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) regional climate model, was used with the aim of quantifying erosion intensity in the Vranjska Valley region by the end of the twenty-first century. The effect of climate change on spatial and temporal patterns in the Vranjska Valley will lead to a 41.84% reduction in average soil loss by the end of the century when compared to the baseline period. The main reason for this decrease in the soil erosion rate in the second half of the century is a 17.19% fall in the total amount of precipitation, the impact of which will inevitably lead to changes in natural and artificial ecosystems. Furthermore, the results of this study highlight the advantages of an integrated approach, combining the effects of climate change and types of land use, for a better and more realistic estimate of future changes in soil erosion.


Soil erosion Climate change Land use changes A1B scenario 


Funding information

This work was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (grants no. 173018 and III 043007).

Supplementary material

10113_2018_1456_MOESM1_ESM.docx (403 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 403 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Ecology, Institute for Biological Research ‘Siniša Stanković’University of BelgradeBelgradeSerbia
  2. 2.Faculty of ForestryUniversity of BelgradeBelgradeSerbia
  3. 3.Institute of meteorology, Faculty of PhysicsUniversity of BelgradeBelgradeSerbia
  4. 4.Institute of ForestryBelgradeSerbia

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