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Sparse Kalman filtering approaches to realized covariance estimation from high frequency financial data

  • Michael HoEmail author
  • Jack Xin
Full Length Paper Series B

Abstract

Estimation of the covariance matrix of asset returns from high frequency data is complicated by asynchronous returns, market microstructure noise and jumps. One technique for addressing both asynchronous returns and market microstructure is the Kalman-Expectation-Maximization (KEM) algorithm. However the KEM approach assumes log-normal prices and does not address jumps in the return process which can corrupt estimation of the covariance matrix. In this paper we extend the KEM algorithm to price models that include jumps. We propose a sparse Kalman filtering approach to this problem. In particular we develop a Kalman Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to determine the unknown covariance as well as detecting the jumps. In order to promote a sparse estimate of the jumps,we consider both Laplace and the spike and slab jump priors. Numerical results using simulated data show that each of these approaches provide for improved covariance estimation relative to the KEM method in a variety of settings where jumps occur.

Keywords

Spike and slab ECM Kalman filtering \(\ell _{1}\) regularization 

Mathematics Subject Classification

90C26 62P05 

Notes

Supplementary material

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature and Mathematical Optimization Society 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of MathematicsUniversity of California at IrvineIrvineUSA

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