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Variability of extreme precipitation over Texas and its relation with climatic cycles

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Abstract

Many hydrometeorological studies have evaluated the impact of climate variability on hydrologic extremes. Recent studies have shown that the varying state of climatic cycles has intensified the regional hydrologic cycle within a wide range of geographical regions in the state of Texas. These climatic cycles define numerous sea surface temperature and pressure anomalies which lead to heavy precipitation in a region. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impact of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related climatic cycles, including (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), on maximum daily precipitation within a year in various climate regions of Texas, using a weighted correlation approach incorporating Leave-One-Out Test (LOOT). The uncertainty in the estimated correlation coefficient is factored in by determining the sample correlation coefficient at the 95% confidence interval. The influence of these global scale climatic cycles on the regional hydrologic cycle is found to be governed by the integrated hydrometeorological properties of weather stations, including (i) station elevation, (ii) average temperature, and (iii) average total precipitation, in the months of extremes. Results of this study will help regional water boards prepare for extreme hydrometeorological events in a changing climate.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Department of Water Management and Hydrological Science and Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering at the Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, for providing us with the necessary facilities to carry out this research work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Management and Hydrological Science, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA

    Nikhil Bhatia

  2. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering & Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA

    Vijay P. Singh

  3. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA

    Kyungtae Lee

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  1. Nikhil Bhatia
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Highlights

• Climatic cycles drive sea surface temperature and pressure anomalies which affect the regional hydrologic cycle.

• Hydrometeorologic extremes in climate regions of Texas are triggered and intensified by the variations in Atlantic and Pacific Ocean–based climatic cycles.

• Extreme precipitation with longer return periods (more than 10 years) across Texas is found to be more significantly correlated than precipitation with shorter return periods.

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Bhatia, N., Singh, V.P. & Lee, K. Variability of extreme precipitation over Texas and its relation with climatic cycles. Theor Appl Climatol 138, 449–467 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02840-w

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