Variation patterns of extreme precipitation and relation to ocean-atmospheric climate in Sichuan province China from 1961 to 2017
- 18 Downloads
Based on daily precipitation records in the Sichuan province, spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation from 1961 to 2017 and the relation to ocean-atmospheric climate were investigated. The trends and their statistical significance were computed with the nonparametric Sen’s and Mann–Kendall tests. The characteristics of mutation and period were investigated with heuristic segmentation and continuous wavelet transform. The relations between extreme precipitation and ocean-atmospheric climate were diagnosed by cross-wavelet analysis. The results comprised three aspects. (1) The intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme precipitation increased in the Sichuan plateau, while the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation decreased, but the duration of extreme precipitation did not change in the Sichuan basin. The contrary trends of extreme precipitation indices may have been influenced by the complex local geography, dramatically increased human activity, and source transportation of water vapor. (2) Temporally, the trends in extreme precipitation indices constituted slight changes in the Sichuan province. The Sichuan province experienced notable climate change because abrupt change points were observed for most of the extreme precipitation indices. Extreme precipitation was a fluctuation process from 1961 to 2017. (3) Because there was a decrease in precipitation during the warm phase periods of El Niño events and an increase during the cool phase periods of La Niña events in the Sichuan province, we show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has longer and stronger relations with extreme precipitation than the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) or East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). The results of the present study will facilitate better decisions concerning preparedness for extreme precipitation events and management of water hazards in the Sichuan province.
The authors gratefully thank the China Meteorological Administration for providing daily precipitation data for the Sichuan province. The authors also thank the Li Jianping research group for providing the SASMI and EASMI data. We are also grateful to Dr. K. Wolter for providing the MEI data. Finally, the authors gratefully thank the anonymous reviewers of this manuscript for the detailed comments.
This study was supported by Increasing Resilience to Natural Hazards in Earthquake Prone Regions in China: the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41661134012 and 41671112) and the talent introduction project of Sichuan University of Science and Engineering (Grant No. 2018RCL09).
- Bai YY, Zhang Y, Gao YH, Ze-Neng HE, Yong-Hua LI (2011) Spatial differences of precipitation over Sichuan Basin. Sci Geogr Sin 31(4):478–484Google Scholar
- Bernaolagalván P, Ivanov PC, Nunes LA, Stanley HE (2001) Scale invariance in the nonstationarity of human heart rate. Phys Rev Lett 87(16):168105–1–168105–4Google Scholar
- Bezerra BG, Silva LL, Silva CMSE, Carvalho GGD (2018) Changes of precipitation extremes indices in São Francisco River basin, Brazil from 1947 to 2012. Theor Appl Climatol D4:1–12Google Scholar
- Hu H, Mao X, Ling L (2009) Temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation events of flood season over Sichuan Basin in last 50 years. Acta Geograph Sin 64(3):278–288Google Scholar
- Huang W, Yang Z, He X et al (2018) A possible mechanism for the occurrence of wintertime extreme precipitation events over South China. Clim Dyn:1–18Google Scholar
- Iwona P, Adam C, Dariusz G, Zbigniew WK (2018. Observed changes in extreme precipitation in poland: 1991–2015 versus 1961–1990) Theor Appl Climatol D5:1–15Google Scholar
- Kong F et al (2017) Advances and prospects of spatiotemporal pattern variation of extreme precipitation and its affecting factors under the background of global climate change. J Catastrophol 32(2):165–174Google Scholar
- Krishnan MVN, Prasanna MV, Vijith H (2018) Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the limbang river basin, Sarawak (nw borneo), Malaysia. Meteorog Atmos Phys. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0611-8
- Li Z et al (2012b) Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961–2008. Glob Planet Chang 80(80–81):255–272Google Scholar
- Salmi T, Määttä A, Anttila P, Ruoho-Airola T, Amnell T (2002) Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates—the excel template application MAKESENS. Finnish Meteorological Institut, Report code FMI-AQ-31, Helsinki, pp 35Google Scholar
- Sigdel M, Ma Y (2016) Variability and trends in daily precipitation extremes on the northern and southern slopes of the central Himalaya. Theor Appl Climatol 130(1–2):571–581Google Scholar
- Yuan WD, Zheng JK, Dong K (2014) Spatial and temporal variation in extreme precipitation events in southwestern China during 1962-2012. Resour Sci 36(4):0766–0772Google Scholar
- Zhang S, Ma Z (2011) Change tendency and cyclicity analysis of extreme precipitation over Sichuan Province during 1961-2009. J Nat Resour 26(11):1918–1929Google Scholar
- Zhang J, Shen X, Wang B (2015) Changes in precipitation extremes in southeastern Tibet, China. Quat Int 380–381:49–59Google Scholar
- Zhang Q, Gu XH, Li JF, Shi PJ, Singh VP (2018) The impact of tropical cyclones on extreme precipitation over coastal and inland areas of China and is association to ENSO. J Clim 31(5):1865–1880Google Scholar
- Zhao Y, Xu X, Huang W et al (2018) Trends in observed mean and extreme precipitation within the yellow river basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol 5:1–10Google Scholar