An interdecadal change in the interannual variability of boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific around the early 1990s
This study presents an interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) around the early 1990s, which is characterized by decreasing in the periodicity and standard deviation of the total TC number (TCN) and shifting in genesis location of the TC over the WNP. This interdecadal change is largely associated with the changes in the impacts of the individual and combined modes of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean (TIPO). Results indicate that prior to the early 1990s, the interannual variability of the WNP TCGF is closely influenced by the La Niña-like SSTAs in the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO), which leads to a zonally dipole structure in the WNP TCGF by triggering an anomalous anticyclone over the southeastern WNP and an anomalous cyclone over the northwestern WNP. Since the early 1990s, the interannual variability of the WNP TCGF is attributed to the impacts of the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the El Niño Modoki-like SSTAs in the TPO, which may work individually and jointly by inducing an anomalous cyclone over the WNP through a Rossby wave-type and a Kelvin wave-type response, respectively. In addition, the IOBM SSTAs in the TIO play a leading role in the impacts on the interannual variability of the WNP TCGF during the recent period. These results also indicate an interdecadal change in the relationship between the TCGF over the WNP and the Indo-Pacific SSTAs, which may provide a good implication for seasonal prediction of the TC activity over the WNP.
This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2016YFA0600603), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41605058), the Fund of Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry, SOA (GCMAC1604), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
- Chen G, and Tam C.-Y., (2010) Different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett, 37, n/a-n/aGoogle Scholar
- Li C, Wang C, Zhao T (2017) Influence of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the subsequent year: asymmetric response. Clim Dyn 46:865–877Google Scholar
- Liu Y, Huang P and Chen GH (2018) Influence of the combined modes of the tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs on the tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific. Submitted to International Journal of Climatology, minor revision.Google Scholar
- Pradhan PK, Preethi B, Ashok K, Krishnan R, Sahai AK (2011) Modoki, Indian Ocean dipole, and western North Pacific typhoons: possible implications for extreme events. J Geophys Res 116Google Scholar
- Rayner NA et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res: Atmospheres 108(D14)Google Scholar
- Zhao H, Wang C (2018) On the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the boreal summer. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-00018-04136-00380