Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate change expectations in the upper Tigris River basin, Turkey

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper studies the Upper Tigris River (UTR) drainage basin in Turkey for climate change impacted runoff estimations. Statistical downscaling method (SDM) is used by taking into consideration spatial dependence function (SDF) for the scenario precipitation projections at a set of available meteorology stations. Temporal adjustment between the climate scenarios and precipitation record time series is achieved by the white Markov (WM) stochastic process. Although various climate research center scenario data are considered, herein, only the general circulation model (GCM) A2 scenario data are adapted from the Hadley Center, England. The precipitation and runoff results are presented in decadal groups starting from 2001 to 2050 as cumulative monthly precipitation (CMP) and cumulative monthly runoff (CMR) graphs. It is observed that after 2021, precipitation decreases at about 12.5% and after 2030, it is 26%. Runoff projections indicate that they may decrease at about 30% especial after 2040.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alashan, S. (2010). Dicle Nehri Akış Karakteristiklerinin Takin Edilmesi. (Tigris River Runoff Characteristics Determination). M. Sc. Thesis, Fırat University, 185 pp. (in Turkish)

  • Abdulkareem JH, Pradhan B, Sulaiman WNA, Jamil NR (2018) Quantification of runoff as influenced by morphometric characteristics in a rural complex catchment. Earth Syst Environ 2(1):145–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Al-Amri NS, Subyani AM (2017) Generation of rainfall intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves for ungauged sites in arid region. Earth Syst Environ 1:8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Almazroui M, Saeed S, Islam MN et al (2017a) Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula: a comparison between different categories of CMIP3 models. Earth Syst Environ 1:17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Almazroui M, Tayeb O, Mashat AS, Yousef A, al-Turki YA, Abid MA, Bafail AO, Ehsan MA, Zahed A, Rahman MA, Mohorji AM, Kang IS, Noaman A, Omar M, al-roqi AM, Ammar K, al-Ghamdi AS, Hussein MAA, Katib I, O’Brien E, Aljohani NR, Islam MN, Alsaedi A, Yang YM, Alkhalaf AK, Ismail M, Mashat A, Kucharski F, Assiri M, Ibrahim S, Tippett M, Rashid IU, Kamil S, Alahmadi A, Atif RM, Bajunaid MA, Hantoush AS (2017b) Saudi-KAU coupled global climate model: description and performance. Earth Syst Environ 1:7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burton A, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Kilsby GS (2010) Downscaling transient climate change using a Neyman–Scott rectangular pulses stochastic rainfall model. J Hydrol 381:18–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cavazos T, Hewitson BC (2005) Performance of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis variables in statistical downscaling of daily precipitation. Clim Res 28:95–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chenoweth J, Hadjinicolaou P, Bruggeman A, Lelieveld J, Levin Z, Lange MA, Xoplaki E, Hadjikakou M (2011) Impact of climate change on the water resources of the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region: modeled 21st century changes and implications. Water Resour Res 47 18 p

  • Dabanli İ, Şen Z (2018) Precipitation projections under GCMs perspective and Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) statistical downscaling model procedures. Theor Appl Climatol 132:153–166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2070-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C (2007) Review linking climate change modeling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modeling. Int J Climatol 27:1547–1578

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleick PH (1993) Water and conflict. Fresh water resources and international security. Int Secur 18(1):79–112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huff FA, Neill JC (1957) Areal representativeness of point rainfall. Trans Amer A Geophys Union 38(3):341–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676–679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones PD, Kilsby CG, Harpham C, Glenis V, Burton A (2009) UK climate projections science report: projections of future daily climate for the UK from the weather generator. University of Newcastle, UK ISBN 978-1-906360-06-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Kavvas ML et al (2010) A study of water balances over the Tigris–Euphrates watershed. Phys Chem Earth 36:197–203

  • Kilsby CG, Jones PD, Burton A, Ford AC, Fowler HJ, Harpham C, James P, Smith A, Wilby RL (2007) A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environ Model Softw 22:1705–1719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kundzewicz ZW, Mata LJ, Arnell NW, Doll P, Jimenez B, Miller K, Oki T, Sen Z, Shiklomanov I (2008) The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrol Sci J 53:3–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kimura F, Kitoh A, Sumi A, Asanuma J, Yatagai A (2008) Downscaling of the global warming projections to Turkey. University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba

    Google Scholar 

  • Mohorji AM, Şen Z, Almazroui M (2017) Trend analyses revision and global monthly temperature innovative multi-duration analysis. Earth Syst Environ 1:9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCaffrey S (1993) Water, politics and international law. In: Gleick P (ed) Water in crisis. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicoll K (2010) Landscape development within a young collision zone: implications for post-Tethyan evolution of the upper Tigris River system in southeastern Turkey. Int Geol Rev 52(4–6):404–422

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Onol B, Semazzi F, Unal YS, Dalfes HN (2007) Regional Climatic Impacts of Global Warming over the Eastern Mediterranean. Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate Change and Middle East; Past, Present and Future, 20–23 November 2006, İstanbul

  • IPCC (2007) Working group II contribution to the intergovernmental panel on climate change fourth assessment report climate change (2007) Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, p 9–10

  • Shapland G (1997) Rivers of discord: international water disputes in the Middle East. Hurst & Company, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Sumner G (1988) Precipitation process and analysis. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Thiessen AH (1911) Precipitation averages for large areas. Mon Weather Rev 39:1082–1084

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (1998) Average areal precipitation by percentage weighted polygon method. J Hydrol Eng ASCE 3(1):69–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2009) Precipitations downscaling in climate modeling using a spatial dependence function. Int J Glob Warming 1(1–3):29–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2012a) An innovative trend analysis methodology. J Hydrol Eng ASCE 17:1042–1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2012b) A statistical downscaling model with applications in northwestern Turkey. Int J Glob Warming 4(1):31–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z, Habib Z (2000) Spatial precipitation assessment with elevation by using cumulative semivariogram technique. Water Resour Manag 14:311–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z, Uyumaz A, Cebeci M, Öztopal A, Küçükmehmetoğlu M, Özger M, Erdik T, Sırdaş S, Şahin AD, Geymen A, Oğuz S, Karsavran Y (2010) The impacts of Climate Change on Istanbul and Turkey Water Resources. Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, p 1500

  • Şen Z, Al-Harithy H, As-Sefry S (2017) Aridity and risk calculations in Saudi Arabian Wadis: Wadi Fatimah case. Earth Syst Environ 1:26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL, Harris I (2006) A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resour Res 42:W02419. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004065

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL, Wigley TML (1997) Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Prog Phys Geogr 21:530–548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willems P, Vrac M (2011) Statistical precipitation downscaling for small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change. J Hydrol 402:193–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilks DS (1992) Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies. Clim Chang 22:67–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zorita E, von Storch H (1999) The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods. J Clim 12(8):2474–2489

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Engineering and Natural Sciences Faculty, Istanbul Medipol University, Beykoz, 34815, Istanbul, Turkey

    Zekâi Şen

  2. Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    Zekâi Şen

Authors
  1. Zekâi Şen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zekâi Şen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Şen, Z. Climate change expectations in the upper Tigris River basin, Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 1569–1585 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2694-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2694-z

Search

Navigation