Central European air temperature: driving force analysis and causal influence of NAO

  • Geli Wang
  • Nannan Zhang
  • Kaiyu Fan
  • Milan Palus
Original Paper


The identification of causality is the core issue in climate change studies. In this paper, driving force analysis and causal influence of NAO for Central European air temperature is presented using slow feature analysis and convergent cross-mapping. Results showed that the driving force of the dominate 7–8 year scale was reconstructed with central European surface air temperature (SAT), this interannual variability may be driven by large-scale climate variability modes such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) based on the previous studies. Then, the possible dynamical causal relation between NAO and SAT in central European was presented; it was indicative that the air temperature variability in Central European uncovers causal influence by NAO.



The authors are grateful to the editor and the anonymous referee for their useful comments that helped to improve the quality of the manuscript.

Funding information

This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91737102 and 41575058) and Chinese Academy of Science and Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (Grant No. CAS-17-03).


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation (LAGEO), Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  3. 3.Department of Complex Systems, Institute of Computer ScienceCzech Academy of SciencesPrague 8Czech Republic

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