Abstract
In this paper, a novel data-driven approach is used to investigate the presence of spatial differences in the dynamic linkage between temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This linkage seems to be latitude dependent. The main findings of the study are as follows. In the latitude belts surrounding the equator (0°− 24° N and 0°− 24° S), the link seems very similar. On the opposite, the patterns of the temperature CO2 link in the Arctic is very distant from those concerning the equatorial regions and other latitude bands in the South Hemisphere. This big distance is consistent with the so-called Arctic amplification phenomenon. Further, it is important to underline that this observational data-based analysis provides an independent statistical confirmation of the results from global circulation modelling.
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Appendix
Appendix
We have estimated a VAR model in levels of the variables temperature (TEMPt ) and radiative forcing due to CO2 (RCt), for the eight latitude bands. The order of the VAR models has been found using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). In particular, we have selected a VAR(2) for the two equatorial regions and a VAR(1) for all the other couple. The parameters of the VARs have been estimated using OLS per equation. These estimates are reported in Table 2, coefficient significant at 5% level are in bold. The multivariate Ljung-Box portmanteau (LB) test is also reported, p values in brackets. The implied ARMA models for TEMPt are presented in Table 3.
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Triacca, U., Di Iorio, F. Latitudinal variability of the dynamic linkage between temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Theor Appl Climatol 136, 1001–1007 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2535-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2535-0