Abstract
This paper aims to study what influence different meteorological parameters have on the radial tree growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in peat and mineral soils, as well as to make predictions of radial tree growth responses to changing climate based on various future climate projections. Four Lithuanian peatland complexes representing different geographical settings and hydrological conditions were studied. From each study site, two tree-ring width (TRW) series were derived, one from trees growing on peat soil and one from trees on mineral soil at the periphery of the peatland. The annual growth rings from trees grown on mineral soils, in different geographical regions in Lithuania, show synchronicity, whereas the correlation between the TRW series from different peatland sites was weak to absent. The main factor that explains radial tree growth at the mineral-soil sites was air temperature during early spring (February–March), which influences the onset and duration of the growing season. However, variations in radial tree growth on the peatland sites were also attributed to lagged hydrological responses relating to precipitation and evaporation over several years. Our future projections show that growth conditions for pine trees on mineral soils will improve in the twenty-first century in Lithuania following an increase of air temperature in early spring. The predictions for the trees growing on peat soils, however, rely on the groundwater-level changes governed by a combination of precipitation and evaporation changes. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, the groundwater level in most Lithuanian peatlands is expected to increase, which most likely will result in harsher growth conditions for the peatland trees. This assumption is, however, open for debate as the peatland trees appear to favour the current warming conditions. It may therefore be too early to precisely predict future growth responses for the peatland trees, but this study is a next step to better understand future climate dynamics and vegetation responses in the Baltic region.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Balevičius K. (ed) (1984) Čepkelių rezervatas [Čepkeliai reserve], Mokslas Publishing House Vilnius, pp 1–128 (in Lithuanian)
Belyea LR, Malmer N (2004) Carbon sequestration in peatland: patterns and mechanisms of response to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 10:1043–1051
Boggie R (1972) Effect of water-table height on root development of Pinus contorta on deep peat in Scotland. Oikos 23:304–312
Bragazza L, Buttler A, Siegenthaler A, Mitchell EA (2009) Plant litter decomposition and nutrient release in peatlands. In: Baird AJ, Belyea LR, Comas X, Reeve AS, Slater LD (eds) Carbon cycling in northern peatlands. American Geophysical Union, pp 99–110
Bräker OU (2002) Measuring and data processing in tree-ring research—a methodological introduction. Dendrochronologia 20:203–216
Chambers FM, Booth RK, De Vleeschouwer F, Lamentowicz M, Le Roux G, Mauquoy D, Nichols JE, Van Geel B (2012) Development and refinement of proxy-climate indicators from peats. Quat Int 268:21–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2011.04.039
Cook ER, Holmes RL (1984) Program ARSTAN user manual: laboratory of tree ring research. University of Arizona, Tucson
Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (1990) Methods of dendrochronology, applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, London
Cook ER, Krusic PJ (2005) ARSTAN_41: a tree-ring standardization program based on detrending and autoregressive time series modeling, with interactive graphics. Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York. http://www.planta.cn/forum/files_planta/arsreadme_135.doc. Accessed 10 July 2016
Coomes DA, Allen RB (2007) Effects of size, competition and altitude on tree growth. J Ecol 95:1084–1097
D’Arrigo R, Wilson R, Liepert B, Cherubini P (2007) On the “divergence problem” in northern forests: a review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes. Glob Planet Chang 60:289–305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.004
Eckstein D, Schweingruber F (2009) Dendrochronologia—a mirror for 25 years of tree-ring research and a sensor for promising topics. Dendrochronologia 27:7–13
Edvardsson J, Leuschner HH, Linderson H, Linderholm HW, Hammarlund D (2012) South Swedish bog pines as indicators of Mid-Holocene climate variability. Dendrochronologia 30:93–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2011.02.003
Edvardsson J, Rimkus E, Corona C, Šimanauskienė R, Kažys J, Stoffel M (2015a) Exploring the impact of regional climate and local hydrology on Pinus sylvestris L. growth variability—a comparison between pine populations growing on peat soils and mineral soils in Lithuania. Plant Soil 392(1–2):345–356. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-015-2466-9
Edvardsson J, Šimanauskienė R, Taminskas J, Baužienė I, Stoffel M (2015b) Increased tree establishment in Lithuanian peat bogs—insights from field and remotely sensed approaches. Sci Total Environ 505:113–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.09.078
Edvardsson J, Stoffel M, Corona C, Bragazza L, Leuschner HH, Charman DJ, Helama S (2016) Subfossil peatland trees as proxies for palaeohydrology and climate reconstruction during the Holocene. Earth-Sci Rev 163:118–140
Esper J, Büntgen U, Timonen M, Frank DC (2012) Variability and extremes of northern Scandinavian summer temperatures over the past two millennia. Glob Planet Chang 88-89:1–9
Fonti P, von Arx G, García-González I, Eilmann B, Sass-Klaassen U, Gärtner H, Eckstein D (2010) Studying global change through investigation of the plastic responses of xylem anatomy in tree rings. New Phytol 185:42–53. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.03030.x
Franceschini T, Bontemps JD, Perez V, Leban JM (2013) Divergence in latewood density response of Norway spruce to temperature is not resolved by enlarged sets of climatic predictors and their non-linearities. Agric For Meteorol 180:132–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.05.011
Friedman JH (1984) A variable span smoother, Department of Statistics technical report LCS 5. Stanford University, Stanford
Fritts HC (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic, London
García-Suárez AM, Butler CJ, Baillie MGL (2009) Climate signal in tree-ring chronologies in a temperate climate: a multi-species approach. Dendrochronologia 27:183–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2009.05.003
Gray ST, McCabe GJ (2010) A combined water balance and tree ring approach to understanding the potential hydrologic effects of climate change in the central Rocky Mountain region. Water Resour Res 46:W05513. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007650
Grigaravičienė L, Janukonis A, Kunskas R, Liužinas R, Rajeckas R (1995) In: Urbonienė J (ed) Lithuanian peatland cadastre. Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania, Vilnius, pp 1–1282
Heijmans MM, van der Knaap YA, Holmgren M, Limpens J (2013) Persistent versus transient tree encroachment of temperate peat bogs: effects of climate warming and drought events. Glob Chang Biol 19:2240–2250. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12202
Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam
Herrero A, Rigiling A, Zamora R (2013) Varying climate sensitivity at the dry distribution edge of Pinus sylvestris and P. Nigra. For Ecol Manag 308:50–61
Holmes RL (1983) Computer assisted quality control in tree ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring Bull 43:69–78
Huang JG, Bergeron Y, Berninger F, Zhai L, Tardif JC, Denneler B (2013) Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. PLoS One 8(2):e56758. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056758
Kažys J, Rimkus E, Taminskas J, Butkutė S (2015) Hydrothermal effect on groundwater level fluctuations: case studies of Čepkeliai and Rėkyva peatbogs, Lithuania. Geologija. Geografija 1:116–129
Kažys J, Rimkus E, Edvardsson J (2016) The 21st century projections of ground water level and hydrothermal conditions in Lithuanian peatbog ecosystems. Geologija Geografija 2:107–121
Kelly AE, Goulden ML (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105(33):11823–11826. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0802891105
Kirtman B, Power SB, Adedoyin JA Boer GJ, Bojariu R, Camilloni I, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Fiore AM, Kimoto M, Meehl GA, Prather M, Sarr A, Schär C, Sutton R, van Oldenborgh GJ, Vecchi G, Wang HJ (2013) Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp 953–1028
Loehle C (2009) A mathematical analysis of the divergence problem in dendroclimatology. Clim Chang 98(3):233–285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9488-8
Martinelli N (2004) Climate from dendrochronology: latest developments and results. Glob Planet Chang 40(1–2):129–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00103-6
Maxwell RS, Wixom J, Hessl AE (2011) A comparison of two techniques for measuring and crosMSating tree rings. Dendrochronologia 29:237–243
Mickevič A, Rimkus E (2013) Dynamics of mean air temperature in Lithuania. Aust Geogr 49(2):114–122. https://doi.org/10.6001/geografija.v49i2.2800
Pensa M, Salminen H, Jalkanen R (2005) A 250-year-long height-increment chronology for Pinus sylvestris at the northern coniferous timberline: a novel tool for reconstructing past summer temperatures? Dendrochronologia 22:75–81
Pilcher JR, Hall VA, McCormac FG (1995) Dates of Holocene Icelandic volcanic eruptions from tephra layers in Irish peats. The Holocene 5:103–110
Ratcliffe JL, Creevy A, Andersen R, Zarov E, Gaffney PP, Taggart MA, Mazei Y, Tsyganov AN, Rowson J, Lapshina ED, Payne RJ (2017) Ecological and environmental transition across the forested-to-open bog ecotone in a west Siberian peatland. Sci Total Environ 607:816–828
Rinn F (2003) TSAP-Win user reference manual. Rinntech, Heidelberg
Scharnweber T, Couwenberg J, Heinrich I, Wilmking M (2015) New insights for the interpretation of ancient bog oak chronologies? Reactions of oak (Quercus robur L.) to a sudden peatland rewetting. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 417:534–543
Schneider L, Smerdon J, Büntgen U, Wilson R, Myglan V, Kirdyanov A, Esper J (2015) Revising midlatitude summer temperatures back to A.D. 600 based on a wood density network. Geophys Res Lett 42(11):4556e4562–4556e4562. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063956
Seo JW, Eckstein D, Jalkanen R, Schmitt U (2011) Climatic control of intra- and inter-annual wood-formation dynamics of Scots pine in northern Finland. Environ Exp Bot 72:422–431
Smiljanić M, Seo JW, Läänelaid A, van der Maaten-Theunissen M, Stajić B, Wilmking M (2014) Peatland pines as a proxy for water table fluctuations: disentangling tree growth, hydrology and possible human influence. Sci Total Environ 500-501:52–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.08.056
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of Cmip5 and the experiment design. B Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498
Waddington JM, Morris PJ, Kettridge N, Granath G, Thompson DK, Moore PA (2014) Hydrological feedbacks in northern peatlands. Ecohydrology 8:113–127. https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1493
Wigley TML, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1984) On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23:201–213
Wilson R, Anchukaitis KJ, Briffa K, Büntgen U, Cook ER, D’Arrigo RD, Davi N, Esper J, Frank D, Gunnarson B, Hegerl G, Klesse S, Krusic PJ, Linderholm H, Myglan V, Peng Z, Rydval M, Schneider L, Schurer A, Wiles G, Zorita E (2016) Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: part I: the long term context. Quat Sci Rev 134:1–18
Yu Z (2006) Power laws governing hydrology and carbon dynamics in northern peatlands. Glob Planet Chang 53:169–175
Funding
This study has been funded by the Lithuanian-Swiss cooperation program to reduce economic and social disparities within the enlarged European Union under the name CLIMPEAT (Climate change in peatlands: Holocene record, recent trends and related impacts on biodiversity and sequestered carbon) project agreement No CH-3-ŠMM-01/05.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rimkus, E., Edvardsson, J., Kažys, J. et al. Scots pine radial growth response to climate and future projections at peat and mineral soils in the boreo-nemoral zone. Theor Appl Climatol 136, 639–650 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2505-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2505-6