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Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

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Abstract

Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970–2005 and 2065–2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the responsible editor and the reviewers for their valuable suggestions that improved the manuscript.

Funding

This research was supported by the projects UBACyT (2014-17) 20020130100263BA from the University of Buenos Aires and CONICET 11220150100137CO (2016-2018) from the National Council of Scientific and Technical Research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Intendente Güiraldes 2160, Pabellón 2, 2° floor, Ciudad Universitaria, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Vanesa C. Pántano & Olga C. Penalba

  2. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Av. Rivadavia 1917, C1033AAJ, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Vanesa C. Pántano & Olga C. Penalba

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  1. Vanesa C. Pántano
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  2. Olga C. Penalba
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Correspondence to Vanesa C. Pántano.

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Pántano, V.C., Penalba, O.C. Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 134, 1257–1268 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2339-7

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