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Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 133, Issue 3–4, pp 727–735 | Cite as

Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

  • Abdulkerim Bedewi Serur
  • Arup Kumar Sarma
Original Paper

Abstract

This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

Keywords

Earth system models RCP emission scenarios ArcSWAT hydrologic model Water demand-water availability estimates Weyib River basin Southeastern Ethiopia 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. The authors express their heartfelt gratitude to the Ministry of Water and Energy (MoWE), Ethiopia, for providing us the meteorological, hydrological, and spatial data to be considered for this study as well as the office provide us some technical report documents that helped to extract all the required information while we are estimating the water demands for various purposes. The authors also would like to express their gratitude to the anonymous reviewers, the section editor, the associate editor, and the editor for their excellent suggestions, which will strengthen the paper.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Civil Engineering DepartmentIndian Institute of Technology GuwahatiGuwahatiIndia

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