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Trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria

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Abstract

In recent times, Ibadan has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature which appears to be linked to anthropogenic global warming. Previous studies have indicated that the warming may be accompanied by changes in extreme events. This study examined trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan during 1971–2012 at annual and seasonal scales using the high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth-century dataset (ERA-20C) at 15 grid points. Magnitudes of linear trends in mean and extreme temperatures and their statistical significance were calculated using ordinary least squares and Mann-Kendall rank statistic tests. The results show that Ibadan has witnessed an increase in annual and seasonal mean minimum temperatures. The annual mean maximum temperature exhibited a non-significant decline in most parts of Ibadan. While trends in cold extremes at annual scale show warming, trends in coldest night show greater warming than in coldest day. At the seasonal scale, we found that Ibadan experienced a mix of positive and negative trends in absolute extreme temperature indices. However, cold extremes show the largest trend magnitudes, with trends in coldest night showing the greatest warming. The results compare well with those obtained from a limited number of stations. This study should inform decision-makers and urban planners about the ongoing warming in Ibadan.

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Acknowledgements

The calculations and analyses were carried using the NCAR Command Language (version 6.3.0). The work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation through Earth System Modeling (EaSM) Grant AGS-1243030; the Federal University of Technology, Akure; and Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. The fourth author was partly supported by National Research Foundation, South Africa.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, 3134 Agronomy Hall, Ames, IA, 50011, USA

    Abayomi A. Abatan & William J. Gutowski Jr

  2. Department of Geography, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

    Tolulope Osayomi

  3. Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Samuel O. Akande

  4. Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Babatunde J. Abiodun

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  1. Abayomi A. Abatan
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  2. Tolulope Osayomi
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  3. Samuel O. Akande
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  4. Babatunde J. Abiodun
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  5. William J. Gutowski Jr
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Correspondence to Abayomi A. Abatan.

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Abatan, A.A., Osayomi, T., Akande, S.O. et al. Trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 1261–1272 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2049-1

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