Advertisement

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

, Volume 131, Issue 1, pp 55–61 | Cite as

Contrasting predictability of summer monsoon rainfall ISOs over the northeastern and western Himalayan region: an application of Hurst exponent

  • Sandipan MukherjeeEmail author
Original Paper
  • 32 Downloads

Abstract

Due to heterogeneous nonlinear forcing of complex geomorphological features, predictability of monsoon rainfall 10–90-day intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) over the complex terrain of northeastern and western Himalayan region (NEH and WH) remained poorly quantified. Using 72 and 61 number of station observations of monsoon rainfall ISOs of NEH and WH, respectively, this study attempts to investigate variation in the regional scale predictability of monsoon rainfall ISOs with respect to changing geomorphological features and monsoon rainfall characteristics. In view of the bimodal nonlinear dynamical structure of monsoon rainfall ISO, the fractal dynamical Hurst exponent-based predictability indices are estimated as an indicator of predictability for station observations of NEH and WH, and relationships with elevations, slopes, aspects, and average numbers of occurrences of long (short) spell of active (break) phases are investigated. Results show 10–90-day ISOs are anti-persistent throughout the IHR, although, predictability of 10–90-day ISOs is higher over the NEH region than WH. Predictabilities of ISOs are found to decrease with increasing elevation and slope for both NEH and WH regions. Predictabilities of ISOs over both regions are also found to increase linearly as the number of occurrences of monsoon rainfall ISO phases (active/break) increases.

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work is partly funded by an In-House project of GBPNIHESD, Kosi-Katarmal, India. The Director of GBPNIHESD is gratefully acknowledged for providing computational facility. India Meteorological Department, Pune, India, is gratefully acknowledged for providing the station rainfall data. Dr. Sandeep Soni, earlier at GBPNIHESD, Kosi-Katarmal, India, is gratefully acknowledged for producing the topographical data of the study area.

References

  1. Bookhagen B, Burbank D (2006) Topography, relief, and TRMM-derived rainfall variations along the Himalaya. Geophys Res Lett 33(L08):405. doi: 10.1029/2006GL026037 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Carbone A, Castelli G, Stanley H (2004) Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys Rev E 69(026):105. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.69.026105 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Das S, Singh S, Rajagopal E, Gall R (2003) Mesoscale modeling for mountain weather forecasting over the Himalayas. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84:1237–1244CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Dhar O, Rakhecha P (1981) The effect of elevation on monsoon rainfall distribution in the central Himalayas. In: Lighthill J, Pearce RP (eds) Monsoon dynamics. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  5. Dwivedi S, Mittal A, Goswami B (2006) An empirical rule for extended range prediction of duration of Indian summer monsoon breaks. Geophys Res Lett 33(L18):801. doi: 10.1029/2006GL027035 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Fennessy M, Shukla J (1994) GCM simulations of active and break monsoon periods. In: Proceeding of international conference on monsoon variability and prediction, Trieste, ItalyGoogle Scholar
  7. Goswami B (1997) Chaos and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon. Pramana 48:719–736CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Goswami B, Ajay Mohan R (2001) Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability on the Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 14(6):1180–1198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Goswami B, Shukla J (1984) Quasi-periodic oscillations in a symmetric general circulation model. J Atmos Sci 41:20–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Krishnamurthy V, Shukla J (2000) Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India. J Clim 13:4366–4377CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Lorenz E (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J Atmos Sci 20:130–141CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Lu J, Chen G (2002) A new chaotic attractor coined. Int J Bifurc Chaos 12:659–661. doi: 10.1142/S0218127402004620 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Lu J, Chen G, Zhang S (2002a) The compound structure of a new chaotic attractor. Chaos Solitons Fractals 14:669–672. doi: 10.1016/S0960-0779(02)00007-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Lu J, Chen G, Zhang S (2002b) Controlling in between the Lorenz and Chen system. Int J Bifurc Chaos 12:1417–1422. doi: 10.1142/S0218127402005200 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Mandelbrot B, Wallis J (1968) Noah, Joseph, and operational hydrology. Wat Resour Res 4:909–9018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Mehta V, Krishnamurti T (1988) Interannual variability of 30–50 day wave motion. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 66:535–548CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Mittal A, Dwivedi S, Pandey A (2005) Bifurcation analysis of a paradigmatic model of monsoon prediction. Nonlinear Process Geophys 12:707–715. doi: 10.5194/npg-12-707-2005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Mittal A, Dwivedi S, Yadav R (2007) Probability distribution for the number of cycles between successive regime transitions for the Lorenz model. Phys D 233:14–20. doi: 10.1016/j.physd.2007.06.014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Mittal A, Mukherjee S, Shukla R (2011) Bifurcation analysis of some forced Lu systems. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 16:787–797. doi: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2010.04.016 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Mukherjee S, Shukla R, Mittal A, Pandey A (2011) Mathematical analysis of a chaotic model in relevance to monsoon ISO. Meteorol Atmos Phys 114:83–93. doi: 10.1007/s00703-011-0159-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Mukherjee S, Ballav S, Soni S, Kumar K, De UK (2015a) Investigation of dominant modes of monsoon iso in the northwest and eastern Himalayan region. Theor Appl Climatol. doi: 10.1007/s00704-015-1512-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mukherjee S, Joshi R, Prasad R, Vishvakarma S, Kumar K (2015b) Summer monsoon rainfall trends in the Indian Himalayan region. Theor Appl Climatol 121(3–4):789–802. doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1273-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Murakami T, Nakazawa T, He J (1984) On the 40–50 days oscillation during 1979 Northern Hemisphere summer. Part 1: phase propagation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 62:440–468CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Palmer T (1994) Chaos and predictability in forecasting the monsoon. Proc Indian Natl Sci Acad 60A:57–66Google Scholar
  25. Rangarajan G, Sant A (2004) Fractal dimension analysis of Indian climatic dynamics. Chaos Solitons Fractals 19:285–291CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Rangarajan G, Sant D (1997) A climate predictability index and its applications. Geophys Res Lett 24:1239–1242CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Sikka A, Gadgil S (1980) On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian longitudes during south west monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 108:1840–1853CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Singh S, Kripalini R (1990) Low frequency intraseasonal oscillations in Indian rainfall and outgoing longwave radiation. Mausam 41:217–222Google Scholar
  29. Singh S, Khadka B, Karky B, Sharma E (2011) Climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: the state of current knowledge. ICIMODGoogle Scholar
  30. Velasquez Valle M, Garcia G, Cohen I, Oleschko L, Corral Ruiz J, Korvin G (2013) Spatial variability of the Hurst exponent for the daily scale rainfall series in the state of Zacatecas, Mexico. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 52:2771–2780. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0136.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Weron R (2002) Estimating long range dependence: finite sample properties and confidence intervals. Stat Mech Appl 312(1):285–299. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)00961-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Yadav R, Dwivedi S, Mittal A (2005) Prediction rules for regime changes and length in a new regime for the Lorenz model. J Atmos Sci 62:2316–2321. doi: 10.1175/JAS3469.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Yasunari T (1979) Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the northern hemisphere summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 57:227–242CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment and Sustainable DevelopmentAlmoraIndia

Personalised recommendations