Development and validation of a nomogram predicting postoperative pneumonia after major abdominal surgery
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Postoperative pneumonia (POP) is a common complication that can adversely affect the outcomes after surgery. This study aimed to devise and validate a model for stratifying the probability of POP in patients undergoing abdominal surgery.
We included 1050 patients who underwent major abdominal surgery between 2012 and 2013. A nomogram was devised by evaluating the predictive factors for POP.
Of the 1050 patients, 56 (5.3%) developed POP. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that the independent predictive factors for POP were age, male sex, history of cerebrovascular disease, Brinkman Index (BI) ≥ 900, and upper midline incision. A nomogram was devised by employing these five significant predictive factors. The prediction model showed a relatively good discrimination performance, with a concordance index of 0.77.
A nomogram based on age, male sex, history of cerebrovascular disease, BI ≥ 900, and upper midline incision may be useful for identifying patients with a high probability of developing POP after major abdominal surgery.
KeywordsPostoperative pneumonia Major abdominal surgery Upper midline incision Predictive factor
Intensive care unit
The American society of anesthesiologists physical status classification system
Prognostic nutritional index
Body mass index
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest in association with the present study.
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