International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 63, Issue 12, pp 1641–1650 | Cite as

Short-term effects of ambient temperature on non-external and cardiovascular mortality among older adults of metropolitan areas of Mexico

  • Magali Hurtado-Díaz
  • Julio C. Cruz
  • José L. Texcalac-Sangrador
  • Eunice E. Félix-Arellano
  • Iván Gutiérrez-Ávila
  • Arely A. Briseño-Pérez
  • Nenetzen Saavedra-Lara
  • Aurelio Tobías
  • Horacio Riojas-RodríguezEmail author
Original Paper


Multi-city studies assessing the association between acute exposure to temperature and mortality in Latin American are limited. To analyze the short-term effect of changes in temperature (increase and decrease) on daily non-external and cardiovascular mortality from 1998 to 2014, in people 65 years old and over living in 10 metropolitan areas of Mexico. Analyses were performed through Poisson regression models with distributed lag non-linear models. Statistical comparison of minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and city-specific cutoffs of 24-h temperature mean values (5th/95th and 1st/99th percentiles) were used to obtain the mortality relative Risk (RR) for cold/hot and extreme cold/extreme hot, respectively, for the same day and lags of 0–3, 0–7, and 0–21 days. A meta-analysis was conducted to synthesize the estimates (RRpooled). Significant non-linear associations of temperature-mortality relation were found in U or inverted J shape. The best predictors of mortality associations with cold and heat were daily temperatures at lag 0–7 and lag 0–3, respectively. RRpooled of non-external causes was 6.3% (95%CI 2.7, 10.0) for cold and 10.2% (95%CI 4.4, 16.2) for hot temperatures. The RRpooled for cardiovascular mortality was 7.1% (95%CI 0.01, 14.7) for cold and 7.1% (95%CI 0.6, 14.0) for hot temperatures. Results suggest that, starting from the MMT, the changes in temperature are associated with an increased risk of non-external and specific causes of mortality in elderly people. Generally, heat effects on non-external and specific causes of mortality occur immediately, while cold effects occur within a few days and last longer.


Ambient temperature Cardiovascular mortality Distributed lags Exposure-response function Minimum mortality temperature 



The authors would like to thank the National Meteorological Service (SMN-México) for providing meteorological data.


The study was supported by the fund of the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) and the Mexican Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT), grant SEMARNAT-2014-1-249465.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Supplementary material

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Copyright information

© ISB 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Magali Hurtado-Díaz
    • 1
  • Julio C. Cruz
    • 1
  • José L. Texcalac-Sangrador
    • 1
  • Eunice E. Félix-Arellano
    • 1
  • Iván Gutiérrez-Ávila
    • 1
  • Arely A. Briseño-Pérez
    • 2
  • Nenetzen Saavedra-Lara
    • 1
  • Aurelio Tobías
    • 3
  • Horacio Riojas-Rodríguez
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.National Institute of Public HealthCuernavacaMexico
  2. 2.Fielding School of Public Health, Center for Health SciencesUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesUSA
  3. 3.Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA) - Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC)BarcelonaSpain

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