Advertisement

Yield potential definition of the chilling requirement reveals likely underestimation of the risk of climate change on winter chill accumulation

  • José Antonio Campoy
  • Rebecca Darbyshire
  • Elisabeth Dirlewanger
  • José Quero-García
  • Bénédicte Wenden
Original Paper

Abstract

Evaluation of chilling requirements of cultivars of temperate fruit trees provides key information to assess regional suitability, according to winter chill, for both industry expansion and ongoing profitability as climate change progresses. Traditional methods for calculating chilling requirements use climate-controlled chambers and define chilling requirements (CR) using a fixed bud burst percentage, usually close to 50% (CR-50%). However, this CR-50% definition may estimate chilling requirements that lead to flowering percentages that are lower than required for orchards to be commercially viable. We used sweet cherry to analyse the traditional method for calculating chilling requirements (CR-50%) and compared the results with a more restrictive method, where the chilling requirement was defined by a 90% bud break level (CRm-90%). For sweet cherry, this higher requirement of flowering success (90% as opposed to 50%) better represents grower production needs as a greater number of flowers leads to greater potential yield. To investigate the future risk of insufficient chill based on alternate calculations of the chilling requirement, climate projections of winter chill suitability across Europe were calculated using CR-50% and CRm-90%. Regional suitability across the landscape was highly dependent on the method used to define chilling requirements, and differences were found for both cold and mild winter areas. Our results suggest that bud break percentage levels used in the assessment of chilling requirements for sweet cherry influence production risks of current and future production areas. The use of traditional methods to determine chilling requirements can result in an underestimation of productivity chilling requirements for tree crops like sweet cherry which rely on a high conversion of flowers to mature fruit to obtain profitable yields. This underestimation may have negative consequences for the fruit industry as climate change advances with climate risk underestimated.

Keywords

Prunus avium Sweet cherry Flowering Temperature Phenology Projections 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu). The authors warmly thank Teresa Barreneche, Hélène Christmann, Jacques Joly, Lydie Fouilhaux, Noémie Vimont and Rémi Beauvieux for collecting the branches and collaborating on the phenotyping. The authors thank the INRA’s ‘Prunus Genetic Resources Center’ for preserving and managing the sweet cherry collections and the Fruit Experimental Unit of INRA-Bordeaux (UEA), for growing the trees and managing the orchards. Finally, many thanks to Alexis Berg for his help on the analysis of climatic projection data.

Funding information

JAC was supported by the CEP Innovation and Aquitaine Region (AQUIPRU project 2014-1R201022971).

Supplementary material

484_2018_1649_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (536 kb)
ESM 1 (PDF 536 kb)

References

  1. Alburquerque N, García-Montiel F, Carrillo A, Burgos L (2008) Chilling and heat requirements of sweet cherry cultivars and the relationship between altitude and the probability of satisfying the chill requirements. Environ Exp Bot 64:162–170.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2008.01.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Andreini L, de Cortázar-Atauri IG, Chuine I, Viti R, Bartolini S, Ruiz D, Campoy JA, Legave JM, Audergon JM, Bertuzzi P (2014) Understanding dormancy release in apricot flower buds (Prunus armeniaca L.) using several process-based phenological models. Agric For Meteorol 184:210–219.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.10.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Azizi Gannouni T, Campoy JA, Quero-García J, Barreneche T, Arif A, Albouchi A, Ammari Y (2017) Dormancy related traits and adaptation of sweet cherry in northern Africa: a case of study in two Tunisian areas. Sci Hortic (Amsterdam) 219:272–279.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2017.03.013 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bennet J (1949) Temperature and bud rest period. Calif Agric 3:9–12Google Scholar
  5. Bigler C, Bugmann H (2018) Climate-induced shifts in leaf unfolding and frost risk of European trees and shrubs. Sci Rep 8:1–10.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27893-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Campoy JA, Ruiz D, Egea J (2011) Dormancy in temperate fruit trees in a global warming context: a review. Sci Hortic (Amsterdam) 130:357–372.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2011.07.011 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Campoy JA, Ruiz D, Allderman L, Cook N, Egea J (2012) The fulfilment of chilling requirements and the adaptation of apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) in warm winter climates: an approach in Murcia (Spain) and the Western Cape (South Africa). Eur J Agron 37:43–55.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2011.10.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Castède S, Campoy JA, Quero-García J et al (2014) Genetic determinism of phenological traits highly affected by climate change in Prunus avium: flowering date dissected into chilling and heat requirements. New Phytol 202:703–715.  https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12658 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chmielewski FM, Götz KP (2016) Performance of models for the beginning of sweet cherry blossom under current and changed climate conditions. Agric For Meteorol 218–219:85–91.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.022 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chuine I, Bonhomme M, Legave JM, García de Cortázar-Atauri I, Charrier G, Lacointe A, Améglio T (2016) Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break. Glob Chang Biol 22:3444–3460.  https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13383 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Cook NC, Calitz FJ, Allderman LA, Steyn WJ, Louw ED (2017) Diverse patterns in dormancy progression of apple buds under variable winter conditions. Sci Hortic 226:307–315.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2017.08.028 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Couvillon GA, Erez A (1985) Influence of prolonged exposure to chilling temperatures on bud break and heat requirement for bloom of several fruit species. J Am Soc Hortic Sci 110:47–50Google Scholar
  13. Dantec CF, Vitasse Y, Bonhomme M, Louvet JM, Kremer A, Delzon S (2014) Chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in European beech and sessile oak populations at the southern limit of their distribution range. Int J Biometeorol 58:1853–1864.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0787-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Dennis F (2003) Problems in standardizing methods for evaluating the chilling requirements for the breaking of dormancy in buds of woody plants. Hort Sci 38:347–350Google Scholar
  15. Egea J, Ortega E, Martinez-Gomez P, Dicenta F (2003) Chilling and heat requirements of almond cultivars for flowering. Environ Exp Bot 50:79–85CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Egea J, Rubio M, Campoy JA et al (2010) “Mirlo Blanco”, “Mirlo anaranjado”, and “Mirlo Rojo”: three new very early-season apricots for the fresh market. HortScience 45:1893–1894Google Scholar
  17. Erez A (2000) Bud dormancy; phenomenon, problems and solutions in the tropics and subtropics. Temperate fruit crops in warm climates, In, pp 17–48Google Scholar
  18. Erez A, Couvillon GA (1987) Characterization of the moderate temperature effect on peach bud rest. J Am Soc Hortic Sci 112:677–680Google Scholar
  19. Fadón E, Herrero M, Rodrigo J (2015) Flower development in sweet cherry framed in the BBCH scale. Sci Hortic (Amsterdam) 192:141–147.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2015.05.027 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Felker FC, Robitaille HA (1985) Chilling accumulation and rest of sour cherry flower buds. J Am Soc Hortic Sci 110:227–232Google Scholar
  21. Fishman S, Erez A, Couvillon GA (1987) The temperature dependence of dormancy breaking in plants: mathematical analysis of a two-step model involving a cooperative transition. J Theor Biol 124:473–483.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80221-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Götz KP, Chmielewski FM, Gödeke K, Wolf K, Jander E, Sievers S, Homann T, Huschek G, Rawel HM (2017) Assessment of amino acids during winter rest and ontogenetic development in sweet cherry buds (Prunus avium L.). Sci Hortic (Amsterdam) 222:102–110.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2017.05.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Guo L, Dai J, Ranjitkar S, Xu J, Luedeling E (2013) Response of chestnut phenology in China to climate variation and change. Agric For Meteorol 180:164–172.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.06.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Guy R (2014) The early bud gets to warm. New Phytol 202:7–9.  https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12728 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Hänninen H (1990) Modelling bud dormancy release in trees from cool and temperate regions. Acta For Fenn 213:1–47Google Scholar
  26. Harrington CA, Gould PJ, St. Clair JB (2010) Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir. For Ecol Manag 259:798–808.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.06.018 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Hauagge R, Cummins JN (1991) Seasonal variation in intensity of bud dormancy in apple cultivars and related Malus species. J Am Soc Hortic Sci 116:107–115Google Scholar
  28. Haylock MR, Hofstra N, Klein Tank AMG et al (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006. J Geophys Res Atmos 113:D20119.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B, Alias A, Christensen OB, Bouwer LM, Braun A, Colette A, Déqué M, Georgievski G, Georgopoulou E, Gobiet A, Menut L, Nikulin G, Haensler A, Hempelmann N, Jones C, Keuler K, Kovats S, Kröner N, Kotlarski S, Kriegsmann A, Martin E, van Meijgaard E, Moseley C, Pfeifer S, Preuschmann S, Radermacher C, Radtke K, Rechid D, Rounsevell M, Samuelsson P, Somot S, Soussana JF, Teichmann C, Valentini R, Vautard R, Weber B, Yiou P (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Chang 14:563–578.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Lang G, Early J, Martin G, Darnell R (1987) Endo-, para-, and eco-dormancy: physiological terminology and classification for dormancy research. Hort Sci 22:371–377Google Scholar
  31. Laube J, Sparks TH, Estrella N, Höfler J, Ankerst DP, Menzel A (2014) Chilling outweighs photoperiod in preventing precocious spring development. Glob Chang Biol 20:170–182.  https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12360 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Luedeling E (2012) Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: a review. Sci Hortic 144:218–229.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2012.07.011 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Luedeling E (2018) chillR: statistical methods for phenology analysis in temperate fruit trees. R package version 0.70.6Google Scholar
  34. Luedeling E, Gassner A (2012) Partial least squares regression for analyzing walnut phenology in California. Agric For Meteorol 158–159:43–52.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.020 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Luedeling E, Zhang M, Girvetz EH (2009a) Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in California during 1950–2099. PLoS One 4.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Luedeling E, Zhang M, Luedeling V, Girvetz EH (2009b) Sensitivity of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees to climatic changes expected in California’s Central Valley. Agric Ecosyst Environ 133:23–31.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2009.04.016 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Luedeling E, Girvetz EH, Semenov MA, Brown PH (2011) Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. PLoS One 6.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0020155 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Luedeling E, Guo L, Dai J, Leslie C, Blanke MM (2013a) Differential responses of trees to temperature variation during the chilling and forcing phases. Agric For Meteorol 181:33–42.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.06.018 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Luedeling E, Kunz A, Blanke MM (2013b) Identification of chilling and heat requirements of cherry trees-a statistical approach. Int J Biometeorol 57:679–689.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0594-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Measham PF, Darbyshire R, Turpin SR, Murphy-White S (2017) Complexity in chill calculations: a case study in cherries. Sci Hortic 216:134–140.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2017.01.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Okie WR, Blackburn B (2011) Increasing chilling reduces heat requirement for floral budbreak in peach. HortScience 46:245–252Google Scholar
  42. Petri JL, Leite GB (2004) Consequences of insufficient winter chilling on apple tree bud-break. Acta Hortic 662:53–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Powell LE (1986) The chilling requirement in apple and its role in regulating time of flowering in spring in cold-winter climates. Acta Hortic 179:1–11Google Scholar
  44. Richardson E, Seeley SD, Walker D (1974) A model for estimating the completion of rest for Redhaven and Elberta peach trees. Hort Sci 9:331–332Google Scholar
  45. Ruiz D, Campoy JA, Egea J (2007) Chilling and heat requirements of apricot cultivars for flowering. Environ Exp Bot 61:254–263.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2007.06.008 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Samish RM (1953) Dormancy in woody plants. Annu Rev Plant Physiol 5:183–204.  https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.pp.05.060154.001151 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Sánchez-Pérez R, Dicenta F, Martínez-Gómez P (2012) Inheritance of chilling and heat requirements for flowering in almond and QTL analysis. Tree Genet Genomes 8:379–389.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11295-011-0448-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Saure M (1985) Dormancy release in deciduous fruit trees. Hortic Rev (Am Soc Hortic Sci) 7:239–299Google Scholar
  49. Spiegel-Roy P, Halston FH (1979) Chilling and post-dormant heat requirement as selection criteria for late-flowering pears. J Hortic Sci 54:115–120CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Tabuenca M (1967) Necesidades de frio invernal de variedades deciruelo. An Aula Dei 8:383–391Google Scholar
  51. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498.  https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Vitasse Y, Basler D (2014) Is the use of cuttings a good proxy to explore phenological responses of temperate forests in warming and photoperiod experiments? Tree Physiol 34:174–183.  https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpt116 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Vitasse Y, Schneider L, Rixen C, Christen D, Rebetez M (2018) Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades. Agric For Meteorol 248:60–69.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.09.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Viti R, Bartolini S, Andreini L (2008) Apricot flower bud development: main biological, physiological and environmental aspects related to the appearance of anomalies. Int J Plant Dev Biol 2:25–34Google Scholar
  55. Viti R, Andreini L, Ruiz D, Egea J, Bartolini S, Iacona C, Campoy JA (2010) Effect of climatic conditions on the overcoming of dormancy in apricot flower buds in two Mediterranean areas: Murcia (Spain) and Tuscany (Italy). Sci Hortic 124:217–224.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2010.01.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Vitra A, Lenz A, Vitasse Y (2017) Frost hardening and dehardening potential in temperate trees from winter to budburst. New Phytol 216:113–123.  https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14698 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Weinberger J (1950) Chilling requirements of peach varieties. Proc Am Soc Hortic Sci 56:122–128Google Scholar

Copyright information

© ISB 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.INRA, University BordeauxUMR Biologie du Fruit et PathologieVillenave d’OrnonFrance
  2. 2.Department of Plant Developmental BiologyMax Planck Institute for Plant Breeding ResearchCologneGermany
  3. 3.New South Wales Department of Primary IndustriesWagga WaggaAustralia
  4. 4.Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural SciencesUniversity of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia

Personalised recommendations