Quantification and evaluation of intra-urban heat-stress variability in Seoul, Korea
This study quantifies heat-stress hazard (air temperature), vulnerability (heat vulnerability index and age score), and risk (heat-related mortality) on the district scale in Seoul, Korea, for a comprehensive heat-stress impact assessment. Moreover, the heat-stress impact assessment is evaluated by checking the spatial consistency between heat-stress hazard, vulnerability, and risk, which was rarely done before. We applied numerical and geo-empirical models to simulate the spatial pattern of heat-stress hazard. For heat-stress vulnerability, we used demographic and socioeconomic factors. Heat-related mortality was estimated based on an event-based heat-stress risk analysis. Results are that heat-stress hazard, vulnerability, and risk are spatially variable in Seoul. The highest heat-stress hazard was detected in the districts Mapo, Yeongdeungpo, and Yangcheon, the highest vulnerability in Jongno and the highest risk in Jongno and Yangcheon. The different components (heat-stress hazard, vulnerability, and risk) and variables (heat vulnerability index and percentage of seniors) showed different spatial patterns. Knowledge about the causes of higher heat-stress risk, either the hazard or vulnerability, is helpful to design tailored adaptation measures that focus on the reduction of thermal loads or on the preparation of the vulnerable population. The evaluation showed that heat-stress vulnerability and hazard explain the spatial pattern of risk only partly. This highlights the need to evaluate heat-stress impact assessment systems to produce reliable urban heat-stress maps.
KeywordsHeat-related mortality Maps Heat-stress impact assessment Heat-stress vulnerability Urban heat island Evaluation
This research is supported by the “Research and Development for KMA Weather, Climate, and Earth System Services: Biometeorology” of the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences (NIMS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and part of the Research Unit 1736 “Urban Climate and Heat Stress in Mid-Latitude Cities in View of Climate Change (UCaHS)” (http://www.UCaHS.org) funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) under the codes SCHE 750/8-1 and SCHE 750/9-1.
- AMS (American Meteorological Society) (2010) Glossary of meteorology. Online http://glossary.ametsoc.org/, Accessed 2017-07-13
- Gallup Korea (2016) Eight out of 10 households have air conditioners in S. Korea Yonhap News 29. July 2016. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2016/07/29/0200000000AEN20160729005400315.html
- Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Lavigne E, Tobias A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Leone M, Michelozzi P, Kan H, Tong S, Honda Y, Armstrong BG (2016) Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am J Epidemiol 183:1027–1036. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv260 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Inoguchi T, Basanez M, Tanaka A, Dadabaev T (2005) Values and life styles in urban Asia. A cross-cultural analysis and sourcebook based on the AsiaBarometer Survey 2003. The University of TokyoGoogle Scholar
- IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeGoogle Scholar
- Kim KR, Yi C, Lee J-S, Meier F, Jänicke B, Fehrenbach U, Scherer D (2014) BioCAS: Biometeorological Climate impact Assessment System for building-scale impact assessment of heat-stress related mortality. Die Erde 145:62–79. https://doi.org/10.12854/erde-145-6
- Korean Statistical Information Service (2014) Online http://kosis.kr accessed at 2017-01-14
- Kuras ER, Richardson MB, Calkins MM, Ebi KL, Hess JJ, Kintziger KW, Jagger MA, Middel A, Scott AA, Spector JT, Uejio CK, Vanos JK, Zaitchik BF, Gohlke JM, Hondula DM (2017) Opportunities and challenges for personal heat exposure research. Environ Health Perspect 125(8):1–9. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP556 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Seoul Metropolitan Government (2017) Seoul statistics by category. Online http://english.seoul.go.kr/get-to-know-us/statistics-of-seoul/seoul-statistics-by-category/ Accessed 2017-06-26
- Taylor J, Wilkinson P, Davies M, Armstrong B, Chalabi Z, Mavrogianni A, Symonds P, Oikonomou E, Bohnenstengel SI (2015) Mapping the effects of urban heat island, housing, and age on excess heat-related mortality in London. Urban Climte 14(4):517–528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2015.08.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- WHO (2015) Heatwaves and health: guidance on warning-system development. WMO-No 1142Google Scholar