Associations between ambient temperature and daily hospital admissions for rheumatic heart disease in Shanghai, China
Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a serious public health burden in developing countries. We conducted a time-series study to explore the association between ambient temperature and daily hospital admissions for RHD in Shanghai, China. We collected data on daily hospital admissions for RHD from 2013 to 2015 from the database of Shanghai Health Insurance System. We applied the generalized additive models together with the distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate the association between temperature and RHD hospital admissions after controlling for relative humidity, time trend, day of the week, and holidays. Stratification analyses by age and gender were performed to evaluate their potential effect modification. A total of 4178 cases of RHD hospitalizations were identified over the study period. There were almost linear, positive, and significant associations between daily mean temperature and RHD hospital admissions with higher risks at hotter days. Compared to reference temperature (0 °C), the cumulative risks of moderate heat (the 90th percentile of temperature, 28.0 °C) and extreme heat (the 99th percentile of temperature, 33.5 °C) over lags 0–5 days were 2.55 (95% confidence interval 1.14, 5.73) and 3.22 (95% confidence interval 1.36, 7.61), respectively. These associations were significantly stronger in older people than in younger people. This study indicated larger risks of RHD hospital admissions associated with higher temperature, especially in older people. Our findings provided first-hand epidemiological evidence regarding the effects of ambient temperature on RHD incidence.
KeywordsRheumatic heart disease Temperature Hospital admission Time-series study
The study was supported by the fourth round of 3-Year Public Health Action Plan of Shanghai (15GWZK0202 and GWTD2015S04).
Compliance with ethical standards
The Institutional Review Board at the School of Public Health, Fudan University (Shanghai, China), approved the study protocol (No. 2014-07-0523) with a waiver of informed consent.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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