Multivariate analysis of the factors affecting the prognosis of walled-off pancreatic necrosis after endoscopic ultrasound-guided drainage

  • Jintao Guo
  • Bowen Duan
  • Siyu SunEmail author
  • Sheng Wang
  • Xiang Liu
  • Nan Ge
  • Wen Liu
  • Shupeng Wang
  • Jinlong Hu


Background and aims

Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided drainage has become the treatment of choice for walled-off pancreatic necrosis (WOPN). However, no consensus exists on the most significant patient- and procedure-related factors that affect prognosis. The aim of the study is to investigate the correlation between patient- and procedure-related factors and post-procedure complications after EUS-guided drainage.


A retrospective analysis of the clinical characteristics of patients with WOPN who underwent EUS-guided drainage at our endoscopy center between November 2011 and August 2017 was performed. Chi-square analysis and binary logistic regression statistical methods were used to analyze the correlation between influencing factors and prognosis.


A total of 85 patients (male/female, 50/35) with WOPN were included in the study. The average age was 44.95 years. The cyst diameter was 10.58 ± 4.78 cm. Multivariate analysis showed that WOPN with higher solid content (> 30%) increased the probability of endoscopic necrosectomy (OR 6.798; 95% CI 1.423, 32.470; p = 0.016). The use of a metal stent increased the probability of endoscopic necrosectomy (OR 3.503; 95% CI 1.251, 9.810; p = 0.017) and the length of hospitalization (OR 3.315; 95% CI 1.192, 9.215; p = 0.022). Female patients had a higher probability of requiring endoscopic necrosectomy (OR 2.683; 95% CI 1.027, 7.007; p = 0.044) and prolonged hospitalization (OR 2.675; 95% CI 1.065, 6.721; p = 0.036).


The solid content of WOPN, type of stent, and sex of patients were associated with increased probability of endoscopic necrosectomy.


Walled-off pancreatic necrosis Prognosis Endoscopic necrosectomy Multifactor analysis 



This study was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province (Grant No. MS0038) and Shengjing Free Researcher Project Foundation (Grant No. MF73). We thank all of the physicians who participated in this study.

Compliance with ethical standards


Jintao Guo, Bowen Duan, Siyu Sun, Sheng Wang, Xiang Liu, Nan Ge, Wen Liu, Shupeng Wang, and Jinlong Hu declare that they have no conflicts of interest or financial ties to disclose.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jintao Guo
    • 1
  • Bowen Duan
    • 1
  • Siyu Sun
    • 1
    Email author
  • Sheng Wang
    • 1
  • Xiang Liu
    • 1
  • Nan Ge
    • 1
  • Wen Liu
    • 1
  • Shupeng Wang
    • 1
  • Jinlong Hu
    • 1
  1. 1.Endoscopy CenterShengjing Hospital of China Medical UniversityShenyangChina

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