Abstract
Climate change is altering global temperature and precipitation regimes, and the ability of species to respond to these changes could have serious implications for population dynamics. Flexible species may adjust breeding dates in response to advances in spring phenology. Furthermore, in migratory bird species, conditions experienced during the non-breeding season may have cross-seasonal effects during the subsequent breeding season. We evaluated species-specific responses to antecedent non-breeding (winter) and current breeding (spring) conditions. We used a data set composed of 21,230 duck nests from 164 sites in the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region, 1993–2011, to determine how environmental conditions influenced timing of nesting and subsequent nest survival in eight duck species representing varying life-histories. We tested how species responded in timing of nesting and nest survival, respectively, to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions experienced during the preceding non-breeding season (winter; Dec–Feb), and spring (Mar–Jun) temperature and moisture conditions on the breeding grounds. Ducks tended to nest earlier in warmer springs; however, in El Niño winters, with warmer spring temperatures, nesting tended to be later. We did not find evidence for direct effects of environmental variables on nest survival; however, evidence of indirect effects of winter conditions on nest survival for some species via strong direct effects on timing of nesting provides new insights into mechanisms for cross-seasonal effects on reproductive success.
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Acknowledgements
Funding for this project was awarded to AJR from the University of Saskatchewan, Ducks Unlimited, Inc. Spencer T. and Ann W. Olin Fellowship, and Alberta North American Waterfowl Management Plan Science Partnership Fund. RGC provided funds from NSERC. Financial support for DUC waterfowl nesting studies (Assessment, SpATS, and Pintail studies) was provided by Ducks Unlimited Canada through the Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, the US Fish and Wildlife Service through the North American Wetland Conservation Council, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Conservation Education International, the Alberta North American Waterfowl Management Plan Science Fund, and an anonymous Canadian donor. We gratefully acknowledge > 300 field personnel who assisted in data collection. We would also like to thank G. Gunnarsson, H. Pöysä, and M. Schummer for helpful comments.
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AJR and RGC conceived and designed the study, JHD and DWH provided the data and analytical support, AJR analyzed the data. AJR wrote the manuscript; RGC, JHD, and DWH provided editorial and other advice.
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Raquel, A.J., Devries, J.H., Howerter, D.W. et al. Reproductive consequences of climate variability in migratory birds: evidence for species-specific responses to spring phenology and cross-seasonal effects. Oecologia 191, 217–229 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-019-04481-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-019-04481-2