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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 53, Issue 3–4, pp 1287–1305 | Cite as

Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

  • R. ManzanasEmail author
  • J. M. Gutiérrez
  • J. Bhend
  • S. Hemri
  • F. J. Doblas-Reyes
  • V. Torralba
  • E. Penabad
  • A. Brookshaw
Article

Abstract

This work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of different alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)—e.g. quantile mapping—to more sophisticated ensemble recalibration (RC) methods—e.g. non-homogeneous Gaussian regression, which build on the temporal correspondence between the climate model and the corresponding observations to generate reliable predictions. To be as critical as possible, we validate the raw model and the calibrated forecasts in terms of a number of metrics which take into account different aspects of forecast quality (association, accuracy, discrimination and reliability). We focus on one-month lead forecasts of precipitation and temperature from four state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems, three of them included in the Copernicus Climate Change Service dataset (ECMWF-SEAS5, UK Met Office-GloSea5 and Météo France-System5) for boreal winter and summer over two illustrative regions with different skill characteristics (Europe and Southeast Asia). Our results indicate that both BA and RC methods effectively correct the large raw model biases, which is of paramount importance for users, particularly when directly using the climate model outputs to run impact models, or when computing climate indices depending on absolute values/thresholds. However, except for particular regions and/or seasons (typically with high skill), there is only marginal added value—with respect to the raw model outputs—beyond this bias removal. For those cases, RC methods can outperform BA ones, mostly due to an improvement in reliability. Finally, we also show that whereas an increase in the number of members only modestly affects the results obtained from calibration, longer hindcast periods lead to improved forecast quality, particularly for RC methods.

Keywords

Seasonal forecasting C3S Bias adjustment Ensemble recalibration Forecast quality Reliability Ensemble size Hindcast length 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work has been funded by the C3S activity on Evaluation and Quality Control for seasonal forecasts. JMG was partially supported by the project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R, MINECO/FEDER). FJDR was partially funded by the H2020 EUCP project (GA 776613).

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • R. Manzanas
    • 1
    Email author
  • J. M. Gutiérrez
    • 1
  • J. Bhend
    • 2
  • S. Hemri
    • 2
  • F. J. Doblas-Reyes
    • 3
    • 4
  • V. Torralba
    • 3
  • E. Penabad
    • 5
  • A. Brookshaw
    • 5
  1. 1.Meteorology Group, Institute of Physics of Cantabria (IFCA)CSIC-University of CantabriaSantanderSpain
  2. 2.Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwissZurichSwitzerland
  3. 3.Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC)BarcelonaSpain
  4. 4.ICREA, Pg. Lluís CompanysBarcelonaSpain
  5. 5.European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)ReadingUK

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