Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 52, Issue 5–6, pp 2545–2563 | Cite as

The poleward shift of South Atlantic Convergence Zone in recent decades

  • Marcia T. ZilliEmail author
  • Leila M. V. Carvalho
  • Benjamin R. Lintner
Article
  • 190 Downloads

Abstract

During austral summer (December–January–February or DJF), intense precipitation over central-eastern Brazil is modulated by the South American Monsoon System and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Previous studies identified spatial variability in precipitation trends over this region, suggestive of a poleward shift of the SACZ in recent years. To identify underlying mechanisms associated with changes in the precipitation intensity and position of the SACZ, decadal averages of observed precipitation and the mean state of the atmosphere and ocean during three different periods from 1979 to 2014 are compared. Results show evidence of decreasing (increasing) average daily precipitation along the equatorward (poleward) margin of the climatological SACZ, likely related to a poleward shift of the convergence zone. Precipitation reduction along the equatorward margin of the SACZ is associated with weakening of the poleward winds along the eastern Brazilian coast and drying of low-to-mid troposphere (700 hPa) over the tropical Atlantic. These changes in circulation and moisture are likely related to the poleward expansion of the South Atlantic Subtropical High.

Keywords

South Atlantic Convergence Zone Precipitation Convective margin Decadal variability South America 

Notes

Acknowledgements

GPCP Precipitation data was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. NOAA High Resolution SST data was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. M. Zilli acknowledges the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for the financial support through the Science without Borders Program (202691/2011-0). L. Carvalho acknowledges the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) Proc. 2008/58101-9. L. Carvalho and B. Lintner acknowledge the support of NSF-AGS-1505198.

Supplementary material

382_2018_4277_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (1.3 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 1356 KB)

References

  1. Barreiro M, Chang P, Saravanan R (2002) Variability of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model. J Clim 715:745–763CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Barros V, Gonzalez M, Liebmann B, Camilloni I (2000) Influence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and South Atlantic sea surface temperature on interannual summer rainfall variability in Southeastern South America. Theor Appl Climatol 67:123–133CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Barros V, Doyle M, Camilloni I (2008) Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation. Theor Appl Climatol 93:19–33.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0329-x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bolton D (1980) Computation of equivalent potential temperature. Mon Weather Rev 108:1046–1053CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bombardi RJ, Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Reboita MS (2013) Precipitation over Eastern South America and the South Atlantic Sea surface temperature during neutral ENSO periods. Clim Dyn 42:1553–1568.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1832-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Carvalho LMV, Jones C (2013) CMIP5 simulations of low level tropospheric temperature and moisture over tropical Americas. J Clim 26:6257–6286.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00532.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Liebmann B (2002) Extreme precipitation events in Southeastern South America and large-scale convective patterns in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. J Clim 15:2377–2394CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Liebmann B (2004) The South Atlantic Convergence Zone: intensity, form, persistence and relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity and extreme rainfall. J Clim 17:88–108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Carvalho LMV, Silva AE, Jones C, Liebmann B, Silva Dias PL, Rocha HR (2011) Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America Monsoon System. Clim Dyn 36:1865–1880.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0806-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chen S, Wei K, Chen W, Song L (2014) Regional changes in the annual mean Hadley circulation in recent decades. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:7815–7832.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021540 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Coelho CAS, Cardoso DHF, Firpo MAF (2016a) Precipitation diagnostics of an exceptionally dry event in São Paulo, Brazil. Theor Appl Climatol.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1540-9 Google Scholar
  12. Coelho CAS, Oliveira CP, Ambrizzi T, Reboita MS, Carpenedo CB, Campos JLPS., Tomaziello ACN, Pampuch LA, Custódio MS, Dutra LMM, Rocha RP, Rehbein A (2016b) The 2014 Southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections. Clim Dyn 46:3737–3752.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2800-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. de Barros Soares D, Lee H, Loikith PC, Barkhordarian A, Mechoso CR (2017) Can significant trends be detected in surface air temperature and precipitation over South America in recent decades? Int J Climatol 37:1483–1493.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4792 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597.  https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Díaz LB, Vera CS (2017) Austral summer precipitation interannual variability and trends over Southeastern South America in CMIP5 models. Int J Climatol 37:681–695.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5031 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Drumond ARM, Ambrizzi T (2006) Inter-ENSO variability and its influence over the South American Monsoon System. Adv Geosci 6:167–171CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Emanuel KA (1994) Atmospheric convection. Oxford University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  18. Grimm AM (2003) The El Niño impact on the summer monsoon in Brazil: regional processes versus remote influences. J Clim 16:263–280CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Grimm AM, Saboia J (2015) Interdecadal variability of the South American precipitation in the monsoon season. J Clim 28:755–775.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00046.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Grimm AM, Zilli MT (2009) Interannual variability and seasonal evolution of summer monsoon rainfall in South America. J Clim 22:2257–2275.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2345.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Grimm AM, Pal JS, Giorgi F (2007) Connection between spring conditions and peak summer monsoon rainfall in South America: role of soil moisture, surface temperature and topography in eastern Brazil. J Clim 20:5929–5945.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1684.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Haylock MR, Peterson TC, Alves LM et al (2006) Trends in total and extremes South American rainfall in 1960–2000 and links with sea surface temperature. J Clim 19:1490–1512.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3695.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Bolvin DT, Gu G (2009) Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1. Geophys Res Lett 36:L17808.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040000 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Jones C, Carvalho LMV (2013) Climate change in the South American Monsoon System: present climate and CMIP5 projections. J Clim 26:6660–6678.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00412.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Junquas C, Vera C, Li L, LeTreut H (2012) Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario. Clim Dyn 38:1867–1883.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1141-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Junquas C, Vera CS, Li L, LeTreut H (2013) Impact of projected SST changes on summer rainfall in Southeastern South America. Clim Dyn 40:1569–1589.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1695-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Kodama YM (1992) Large-scale common features of subtropical precipitation zones (the Baiu Frontal Zone, the SPCZ and the SACZ) Part I: characteristics of subtropical frontal zones. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 70:813–835CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Kodama YM (1993) Large-scale common features of subtropical convergence zones (the Baiu Frontal Zone, the SPCZ and the SACZ). Part II: conditions of the circulations for generating the STCZs. J Meteorol Soc Japan 75:581–610CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Krishnamurthy V, Misra V (2010) Observed ENSO teleconnection with the South American Monsoon System. Atmos Sci Lett 11:7–12.  https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.245 Google Scholar
  30. Li W, Li L, Ting M, Deng Y, Kushnir Y, Liu Y, Lu Y, Wang C, Zhang P (2013) Intensification of the Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical anticyclones in a warming climate. Geophys Res Lett 40:5959–5964.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058124 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Liebmann B, Jones C, Carvalho LMV (2001) Interannual variability of daily extreme precipitation events in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. J Clim 14:208–218CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Lintner BR, Neelin JD (2007) A prototype for convective margin shifts. Geophys Res Lett 34:L05812.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027305 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Lintner BR, Neelin JD (2010) Tropical South America-Atlantic sector convective margins and their relationship to low-level inflow. J Clim 23:2671–2685.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3301.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T (2007) Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34:L06805.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028443 Google Scholar
  35. Marengo JA, Liebmann B, Grimm AM, Misra V, Silva Dias PL, Cavalcanti I, Carvalho LM, Berbery E, Ambrizzi T, Vera C, Saulo A, Nogues-Paegle J, Zipser E, Seth A, Alves L (2012) Review: recent developments on the South American Monsoon System. Int J Climatol 32:1–21.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2254 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. McGregor GR, Nieuwolt S (1998) Tropical climatology: an introduction to the climates of the low latitudes, 2nd edn. Wiley, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  37. Muza MN, Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Liebmann B (2009) Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme dry and wet events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during austral summer. J Clim 22:1682–1699.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2257.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Nobre CA, Marengo JA, Seluchi ME, Cuartas LA, Alves LM (2016) Some characteristics and impacts of the drought and water crisis in Southeastern Brazil during 2014 and 2015. J Water Resour Prot 8:252–262.  https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2016.82022 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Nogues-Paegle J, Byerle LA, Mo KC (2000) Intraseasonal modulation of South American summer precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 128:837–850CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Otto FEL, Coelho CAS, King A, Coughlan de Perez E, Wada Y, van Oldenborgh GJ, Haarsma R, Haustein K, Uhe P, van Aalst M, Aravequia JA, Almeida W, Cullen H (2015) Factors other than climate change, main drivers of 2014/15 water shortage in Southeast Brazil. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96:S35–S40.  https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-EEE_2014_ch8.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:D14.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002670 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20:5473–5496.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Robertson AW, Mechoso CR (2000) Interannual and interdecadal variability of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Mon Weather Rev 128:2947–2957CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ (2001) Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J Clim 14:3192–3211CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Saha S, Moorthi S, Pan HL et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Schneider T, O’Gorman PA, Levine XJ (2010) Water vapor and the dynamics of climate changes. Rev Geophys 48:RG3001.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000302 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Seidel DJ, Randel WJ (2007) Recent widening of the tropical belt: evidence from tropopause observations. J Geophys Res 112:D20113.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008861 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Seth A, Rojas M, Rauscher SA (2010) CMIP3 project changes in the annual cycle of the South American Monsoon. Clim Change 98:331–357.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9736-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Skansi MM, Brunet M, Sigró J et al (2013) Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America. Glob Planet Change 100:295–307.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Soares WR, Marengo JA (2009) Assessments of moisture fluxes east of the Andes in South America in a global warming scenario. Int J Climatol 29:1395–1414.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1800 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Talento S, Barreiro M (2012) Estimation of natural variability and detection of anthropogenic signal in summertime precipitation over South America. Adv Meteorol.  https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/725343 Google Scholar
  52. Talento S, Barreiro M (2017) Control of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone by extratropical thermal forcing. Clim Dyn.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3647-4 Google Scholar
  53. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J Clim 20:4316–4340.  https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4258.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Venegas SA, Mysak LA, Straub DN (1997) Atmosphere–ocean coupled variability in the South Atlantic. J Clim 10:2904–2920.  https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2904:AOCVIT>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Vera C, Higgins W, Amador J, Ambrizzi T, Garreaud R, Gochis D, Gutzler D, Letternmater D, Marengo JA, Mechoso CR, Nogués-Paegle J, Silva Dias PL, Zang C (2006) Toward a unified view of the American Monsoon System. J Clim 19:4977–5000.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3896.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Wainer I, Venegas SA (2002) South Atlantic multidecadal variability in the climate system model. J Clim 15:1408–1420CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Wilks DS (2011) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, vol 100. Academic Press, San DiegoGoogle Scholar
  58. Zhou J, Lau KM (1998) Does a monsoon climate exist over South America? J Clim 11:1020–1040CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Zhou J, Lau KM (2001) Principal modes of interannual and decadal variability of summer rainfall over South America. Int J Climatol 21:1623–1644.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.700 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Zilli MT, Carvalho LMV, Liebmann B, Silva Dias MA (2016) A comprehensive analysis of trends in extreme precipitation over southeastern coast of Brazil. Int J Climatol.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4840 Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of GeographyUniversity of CaliforniaSanta BarbaraUSA
  2. 2.Earth Research InstituteUniversity of CaliforniaSanta BarbaraUSA
  3. 3.Department of Environmental SciencesRutgers, The State University of New JerseyNew BrunswickUSA

Personalised recommendations