Abstract
Climate change projections were evaluated over both the whole Iran and six zones having different precipitation regimes considering the CORDEX South Asia dataset, for assessing space–time distribution of drought occurrences in the future period 2070–2099 under RCP4.5 scenario. Initially, the performances of eight available CORDEX South Asia Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were assessed for the baseline period 1970–2005 through the GPCC v.7 precipitation dataset and the CFSR temperature dataset, which were previously selected as the most reliable within a set of five global datasets compared to 41 available synoptic stations. Though the CCLM RCM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR General Circulation Model is in general the most suitable for temperature and, together with the REMO 2009 RCM also driven by MPI-ESM-LR, for precipitation, their performances do not overwhelm other models for every season and zone in which Iranian territory was divided according to a principal component analysis approach. Hence, a weighting approach was tested and adopted to take into account useful information from every RCM in each of the six zones. The models resulting more reliable compared to current climate show a strong precipitation decrease. Weighted average predicts an overall yearly precipitation decrease of about 20%. Temperature projections provide a mean annual increase of 2.4 °C. Future drought scenarios were depicted by means of the self-calibrating version of the Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) model. Weighted average predicts a sharp drying that can be configured as a real shift in mean climate conditions, drastically affecting water resources of the country.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abbaspour KC, Faramarzi M, Ghasemi SS, Yang H (2009) Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran. Water Resour Res 45:W10434
Almazroui M (2016) RegCM4 in climate simulation over CORDEX-MENA/arab domain: selection of suitable domain, convection and land-surface schemes. Int J Climatol 36(1):236–251
Almazroui M, Islam M, Al-Khalaf AK, Saeed F (2016) Best convective parameterization scheme within RegCM4 to downscale CMIP5 multi-model data for the CORDEX-MENA/arab domain. Theor Appl Climatol 124(3):807–823
Azari M, Moradi HR, Saghafian B, Faramarzi M (2016) Climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield in the North of Iran. Hydrol Sci J 61(1):123–133
Bierkens MFP, Bell VA, Burek P, Chaney N, Condon L, David CH, de Roo A, Döll P, Drost N, Famiglietti JS, Flörke M, Gochis DJ, Houser P, Hut R, Keune J, Kollet S, Maxwell R, Reager JT, Samaniego L, Sudicky E, Sutanudjaja EH, van de Giesen N, Winsemius H, Wood EF (2015) Hyper-resolution global hydro-logical modelling: what is next? Hydrol Process 29:310–320
Boé J, Terray L (2015) Can metric‑based approaches really improve multi‑model climate projections? The case of summer temperature change in France. Clim Dyn 45:1913–1928
Bucchignani E, Mercogliano P, Rianna G, Panitz H-J (2016a) Analysis of ERA-Interim-driven COSMO-CLM simulations over Middle East–North Africa domain at different spatial resolutions. Int J Climatol 36:3346–3369
Bucchignani E, Cattaneo L, Panitz HJ, Mercogliano P (2016b) Sensitivity analysis with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over the CORDEX-MENA domain. Meteorol Atmos Phys 128:73–95
Cattel RB (1966) The scree test for the number of factors. Multivar Behav Res 1:245–276
Christensen JH, Kjellström EK, Giorgi F, Lenderink G, Rummukainen M (2010) Weight assignment in regional climate models. Clim Res 44:179–194
Coppola E, Giorgi F, Rauscher SA, Piani C (2010) Model weighting based on mesoscale structures in precipitation and temperature in an ensemble of regional climate models. Clim Res 44:121–134
Coppola E, Giorgi F, Raffaele F, Fuentes-Franco R, Giuliani G, Llopart-Pereira M, Mamgain A, Mariotti L, Diro GT, Torma C (2014) Present and future climatologies in the phase I CREMA experiment. Clim Change 125:23–38
Das Bhowmik R, Sharma A, Sankarasubramanian A (2017) Reducing Model structural uncertainty in climate model projections—a rank-based model combination approach. J Clim 30(24):10139–10154
Dash SK, Mishra SK, Pattnayak KC, Manmgain A, Mariotti L, Coppola E, Giorgi F, Giuliani G (2015) Projected seasonal mean summer monsoon over India and adjoining regions for the twenty-first century. Theor Appl Climatol 122:581–593
Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Dinpashoh Y, Fakheri-Fard A, Moghaddam M, Jahanbakhsh S, Mirnia M (2004) Selection of variables for the purpose of regionalization of Iran’s precipitation climate using multivariate methods. J Hydrol 297:109–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.04.009
Dobler A, Ahrens B (2008) Precipitation by a regional climate model and bias correction in Europe and South Asia. Meteorol Z 17:499–509
Domroes M, Kaviani M, Schaefer D (1998) An analysis of regional and intraannual precipitation variability over Iran using multivariate statistical methods. Theor Appl Climatol 61:151–159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s007040050060
Emam AR, Kappas M, Hosseini SZ (2015) Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production and land degradation in a semi-arid river basin. Hydrol Res 46(6):854–870
Etemadi H, Samadi SZ, Sharifikia M, Smoak JM (2016) Assessment of climate change downscaling and non-stationarity on the spatial pattern of a mangrove ecosystem in an arid coastal region of southern Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 126:35–49
Fatichi S, Ivanov VY, Paschalis A, Peleg N, Molnar P, Rimkus S, Kim J, Burlando P, Caporali E (2016) Uncertainty partition challenges the predictability of vital details of climate change. Earth’s Future 4:240–251
Ghimire S, Choudary A, Dimri AP. (2015) Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan region during present climate: part I. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2747-2
Giorgi F (2010) Uncertainties in climate change projections, from the global to the regional scale. EPJ Web Conf 9:115–129, https://doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/201009009
Giorgi F (2014) Introduction to the special issue: the phase I CORDEX RegCM4 hyper-matrix (CREMA) experiment. Clim Change 125:1–5
Giorgi F, Gutowsky WJ (2016) Coordinated experiments for projections of regional climate change. Curr Clim Change Rep 2:202–210
Giorgi F, Mearns LO (2002) Calculation of average, uncertainty range and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the ‘reliability ensemble averaging (REA)’ method. J Clim 15:1141–1158
Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar G (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional scale: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull 58:175–183
Giorgi F, Coppola E, Solmon F et al (2012) RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Clim Res 52:7–29
Giorgi F, Coppola E, Raffaele F et al (2014) Change in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections. Clim Chang 125:39–51
Gochis DJ, Yu W, Yates DN (2013) The WRF-Hydro model technical description and user’s guide, version 1.0. NCAR technical document. https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/wrf_hydro/overview. Accessed 28 Feb 2018
Harris I, Jones P, Osborn T, Lister D (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations–the CRU TS3. 10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711
Hashemi H, Uvo CB, Berndtsson R (2015) Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19:4165–4181
Hingray B, Saïd M (2014) Partitioning internal variability and model uncertainty components in a multimember multimodel ensemble of climate projections. J Clim 27:6779–6798
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In: Parry ML et al (eds) Contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge
Juneng L, Tangang F, Chung JX, Ngai ST, The TW, Narisma G, Cruz F, Phan-Van T, Ngo-Duc T, Santisirisomboon J, Singhruck P, Gunawan D, Aldrian E (2016) Sensitivity of the Southeast Asia rainfall simulations to cumulus and ocean flux parameterization in RegCM4. Clim Res 69:59–77. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01386
Kotlarski S, Bosshard T, Lüthi D, Pall P, Schär C (2012) Elevation gradients of European climate change in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. Clim Change 112:189–215
Kotlarski S, Keuler K, Christensen OB, Colette A, Déqué M, Gobiet A, Görgen K, Jacob D, Lüthi D, van Meijgaard E, Nikulin G, Schär C, Teichmann C, Vautard R, Warrach-Sagi K, Wulfmeyer V (2014) Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble. Geosci Model Dev 7(1):217–293
Kouhestani S, Eslamian SS, Abedi-Koupai J, Besalatpour AA (2016) Projection of climate change impacts on precipitation using soft-computing techniques: a case study in Zayandeh-rud Basin, Iran. Glob Planet Change 144:158–170
Lawley DN (1956) Tests for significance for the latent roots of covariance and correlation matrices. Biometrica 43:128–136
Li H, Xu CY, Beldring S et al (2016) Water Resources under climate change in Himalayan Basins. Water Resour Manag 30(2):843–859
McGregor JL, Dix MR (2001) The CSIRO conformal-cubic atmospheric GCM. In: Hodnett PF (ed) IUTAM symposium on advances in mathematical modelling of atmosphere and ocean dynamics. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 197–202
Meehl G, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset. A new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88(2007):1383–1394
Modarres R, Sarhadi A (2011) Statistically-based regionalization of rainfall climates of Iran. Glob Planet Change 75:67–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.10.009
Moss RH et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756
Naderi M, Raeisi E (2016) Climate change in a region with altitude differences and with precipitation from various sources, South-Central Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 124:529–540
Ngo-Duc T, Tangang FT, Santisirisomboon J, Cruz F, Trinh-Tuan L, Nguyen-Xuan T, Phan-Van T, Juneng L, Narisma G, Singhruck P, Gunawan D, Aldrian E (2017) Performance evaluation of RegCM4 in simulating extreme rainfall and temperature indices over the CORDEX-Southeast Asia Region. Int J Climatol 37:1634–1647. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4803
North GR, Bell TL, Calahan RF (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706
Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought, vol 30. US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau Washington, DC
Pechlivanidis IG, Olsson J, Bosshard T, Sharma D, Sharma KC (2016) Multi-basin modelling of future hydrological fluxes in the indian subcontinent. Water 8(5):177. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8050177
Poli et al (2016) ERA-20C: An atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0556.1
Prein A, Gobiet A, Truhetz H, Keuler K, Goergen K, Teichmann C et al (2016) Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits? Clim Dyn 46:383–412
Rahimi J, Ebrahimpour M, Khalili A (2013) Spatial changes of extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 112:409–418
Rahmani MA, Zarghami M (2013) A new approach to combine climate change projections by ordered weighting averaging operator; applications to northwestern provinces of Iran. Glob Planet Change 102:41–50
Räisänen J, Ylhäisi J (2012) Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change? Clim Dyn 39:1981–1998
Räisänen J, Ruokolainen L, Ylhäisi J (2010) Weighting of model results for improving best estimates of climate change. Clim Dyn 35:407–422
Raju PSV, Bhatla R, Almazroui M, Assiri A (2015) Performance of convection schemes on the simulation of summer monsoon features over the South Asia CORDEX domain using RegCM-4.3. Int J Climatol 35:4695–4706
Ravazzani G, Barbero S, Salandin A, Senatore A, Mancini M (2015) An integrated hydrological model for assessing climate change impacts on water resources of the Upper Po river basin. Water Resour Manag 29(4):1193–1215
Raziei T (2017) A precipitation regionalization and regime for Iran based on multivariate analysis. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2065-1
Raziei T, Bordi I, Pereira LS (2011) An application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR datasets for drought variability analysis in Iran. Water Resour Manag 25:1075–1086. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9657-1
Raziei T, Mofidi A, Santos JA, Bordi I (2012) Spatial patterns and regimes of daily precipitation in Iran in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation. Int J Climatol 32:1226–1237
Rechid D, Raddatz TJ, Jacob D (2009) Parameterization of snow-free land surface albedo as a function of vegetation phenology based on MODIS data and applied in climate modelling. Theor Appl Climatol 95:245
Rencher AC (1998) Multivariate statistical inference and applications. Wiley-Interscience, New York
Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015
Samuelsson P et al (2011) The Rossby centre regional climate model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus 63A:4–23
Sarmadi F, Shokoohi A (2015) Regionalizing precipitation in Iran using GPCC gridded data via multivariate analysis and L-moment methods. Theor Appl Climatol 122:121–128. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1292-y
Sayari N, Bannayan M, Alizadeh A, Farid A (2013) Using drought indices to assess climate change impacts on drought conditions in the northeast of Iran (case study: Kashafrood basin). Meteorol Appl 20:115–127
Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B, Ziese M (2015) GPCC full data reanalysis version 7.0 at 0.5°: monthly land-surface precipitation from rain-gauges built on GTS-based and historic data. https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V.7_050
Senatore A, Mendicino G, Smiatek G, Kunstmann H (2011) Regional climate change projections and hydrological impact analysis for a Mediterranean basin in southern Italy. J Hydrol 399(1–2):70–92
Senatore A, Mendicino G, Gochis DJ, Yu W, Yates DN, Kunstmann H (2015) Fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations for the Central Mediterranean: impact of enhanced hydrological parameterization for short- and long-timescales. J Adv Model Earth Syst 7(4):1693–1715
Singh RS, Reager JT, Miller NL, Famiglietti JS (2015) Toward hyper-resolution land-surface modeling: the effects of fine-scale topography and soil texture on CLM4.0 simulations over the Southwestern U.S. Water Resour Res 51:2648–2667. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015686
Smiatek G, Kunstmann H, Senatore A (2016) EURO-CORDEX regional climate model analysis for the Greater Alpine region: performance and expected future change. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:7710–7728
Solaymani HR, Gosain AK (2015) Assessment of climate change impacts in a semi-arid watershed in Iran using regional climate models. J Water Clim Change 6(1):161–180
Nakícenovíc N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, Emilio la Rovere E, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger ME, Shukla PR, Smith S, Swart RJ, van Rooyen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 1535 IPCC
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498
Terink W, Immerzeel WW, Droogers P (2013) Climate change projections of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration for the Middle East and Northern Africa until 2050. Int J Climatol 33:3055–3072
Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38:55–94
Van der Schrier G, Jones PD, Briffa KR (2011) The sensitivity of the PDSI to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith parameterizations for potential evapotranspiration. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:D03106. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015001
Webb RW, Rosenzweig CE, Levine ER (2000) Global soil texture and derived water-holding capacities from Oak ridge national laboratory distributed active archive center, Oak Ridge. http://www.daac.ornl.gov. Accessed 28 Feb 2018
Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes MJ (2004) A self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index. J Clim 17:2335–2351
Zareian MJ, Eslamain S, Safavi HR (2015) A modified regionalization weighting approach for climate change impact assessment at watershed scale. Theor Appl Climatol 122:497–516
Zittis G, Hadjinicolaou P, Lelieveld J (2014) Comparison of WRF model physics parameterizations over the MENA-CORDEX domain. Am J Clim Change 03(05):490–511
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the Executive Editor Susanna Corti and the anonymous reviewers for their critical and constructive reviews, which helped to improve the quality of the paper. They acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. They also thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Table 2 of this paper) for producing and making available their model outputs and acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure, an international effort led by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, the European Network for Earth System Modelling and other partners in the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP). The GPCC v.7 dataset is provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, the CRU-TS v.3.23 dataset by the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, the CFSR dataset by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) project carried out by the Environmental Modelling Center (EMC), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provides the access to the ERA-Interim and ERA-20C datasets. The Iranian Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) is appreciated for providing the observed data. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DACC) is appreciated for providing the soil water-holding capacity dataset. Somayeh Hejabi gratefully acknowledges Iranian Ministry of Science, Research and Technology (MSRT) for the financial support during her stay in Italy in the period January-August 2016.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Senatore, A., Hejabi, S., Mendicino, G. et al. Climate conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070–2099). Clim Dyn 52, 865–891 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4171-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4171-x