Advertisement

ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

  • Supari
  • Fredolin Tangang
  • Ester Salimun
  • Edvin Aldrian
  • Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan
  • Liew Juneng
Article

Abstract

This paper provides a detailed description of how ENSO events affect seasonal and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Daily precipitation data from 97 stations across Indonesia covering the period from 1981 to 2012 were used to investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on extreme precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency and duration, as defined based on a subset of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although anomalous signals in these three indices were consistent with those of total rainfall, anomalies in the duration of extremes [i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)] were much more robust. El Niño impacts were particularly prominent during June–July–August (JJA) and September–October–November (SON), when anomalously dry conditions were experienced throughout the country. However, from SON, a wet anomaly appeared over northern Sumatra, later expanding eastward during December–January–February (DJF) and March–April–May (MAM), creating contrasting conditions of wet in the west and dry in the east. We attribute this apparent eastward expansion of a wet anomaly during El Niño progression to the equatorial convergence of two anti-cyclonic circulations, one residing north of the equator and the other south of the equator. These anti-cyclonic circulations strengthen and weaken according to seasonal changes and their coupling with regional seas, hence shaping moisture transport and convergence. During La Niña events, the eastward expansion of an opposite (i.e., dry) anomaly was also present but less prominent than that of El Niño. We attribute this to differences in regional ocean—atmosphere coupling, which result in the contrasting seasonal evolution of the two corresponding anomalous cyclonic circulations and in turn suggests the strong nonlinearity of El Niño and La Niña responses over the Maritime Continent. Based on the seasonal behaviour of anomalous CDD and CWD, we propose five sub-divisions of the Indonesian region for both El Niño and La Niña.

Keywords

Indonesia Seasonal rainfall Extremes ENSO 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The first author thanks the Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP) (S-140/LPDP.3/2014) for providing a scholarship for his PhD program. This research was also funded by the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia ICONIC-2013-001, and is related to the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research Grants (ARCP2013-17NMY-Tangang/ST-2013-017, ARCP2014-07CMY-2014-Tangang/ST-2015-013, ARCP2015-04CMY-Tangang/ST-2015-003).

References

  1. Aldrian E, Dwi Susanto R (2003) Identification of three dominant rainfall regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface temperature. Int J Climatol 23:1435–1452.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.950 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Aldrian E, Gates LD, Widodo FH (2003) Variability of Indonesian Rainfall and the Influence of ENSO and Resolution in ECHAM4 Simulations and in the Reanalyses. MPI Report 346, 30 pp. https://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/publikationen/Reports/max_scirep_346.pdf
  3. Aldrian E, Gates LD, Widodo FH (2006) Seasonal variability of Indonesian rainfall in ECHAM4 simulations and in the reanalyses: the role of ENSO. Theor Appl Climatol 87:41–59.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-006-0218-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Alexander MA, Bladé I, Newman M et al (2002) The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. J Clim 15:2205–2231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Alexander LV, Uotila P, Nicholls N (2009) Influence of sea surface temperature variability on global temperature and precipitation extremes. J Geophys Res.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012301 Google Scholar
  6. As-syakur AR, Wayan I, Adnyana S et al (2014) Observation of spatial patterns on the rainfall response to ENSO and IOD over Indonesia using TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Int J Climatol 34:3825–3839.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3939
  7. Awan JA, Bae D-H, Kim K-J (2015) Identification and trend analysis of homogeneous rainfall zones over the East Asia monsoon region. Int J Climatol 35:1422–1433.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4066 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Curtis S, Salahuddin A, Adler RF et al (2007) Precipitation extremes estimated by GPCP and TRMM: ENSO relationships. J Hydrometeorol 8:678–689.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM601.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. D’Arrigo R, Wilson R (2008) El Ni˜no and Indian Ocean influences on Indonesian drought: implications for forecasting rainfall and crop productivity. Int J Climatol 28:611–616.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Field RD, van der Werf GR, Fanin T et al (2016) Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution in 2015 show persistent nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113:9204–9209.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1524888113 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Gill E (1980) Some simple solutions f o r heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Glauber AJ, Moyer S, Adriani M, Gunawan I (2016) The cost of fire : an economic analysis of Indonesia’s 2015 fire crisis. Indonesia Sustainable Landscapes Knowledge Note No. 1. World Bank, Jakarta. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/23840
  13. Glover D, Jessup T (eds) (2006) Indonesia’s fires and haze: the cost of catastrophe. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, SingaporeGoogle Scholar
  14. Grimm AM, Tedeschi RG (2009) ENSO and extreme rainfall events in South America. J Clim 22:1589–1609.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2429.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Hackert EC, Hastenrath S (1986) Mechanism of anomalies rainfall in Java. Mon Weather Rev 114:745–757CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hamada J-I, Yamanaka MD, Matsumoto J et al (2002) Spatial and temporal variations of the rainy season over Indonesia and their link to ENSO. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 80:285–310.  https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.285 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Harrison ME, Page SE (2009) The global impact of Indonesian forest fires. Biologist 56:156–163Google Scholar
  18. Haylock M, Mcbride JM (2001) Spatial coherence and predictability of Indonesian wet season rainfall. J Clim 14:3882–3887CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hendon HH (2003) Indonesian rainfall variability: impacts of ENSO and local air-sea interaction. J Clim 16:1775–1790.  https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1775:IRVIOE>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Hon PML (1999) Singapore. In: Glover D, Jessup T (eds) Indonesia’s Fire and Haze, the cost of catastrophe. The Institute of Southeast Asias Studies (ISEAS), Singapore, pp 22–50. https://www.idrc.ca/en/book/indonesias-fires-and-haze-cost-catastrophe-2006-update
  21. Huang B, Thorne PW, Banzon VF et al (2017) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J Clim.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1 Google Scholar
  22. Jacox MG, Hazen EL, Zaba KD et al (2016) Impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño on the California Current System: early assessment and comparison to past events. Geophys Res Lett 43:7072–7080.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069716 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Juneng L, Tangang FT (2005) Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in Southeast Asia region and its relationship with atmosphere—Ocean variations in Indo-Pacific sector. Clim Dyn 25:337–350.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0031-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471.  https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Kenyon J, Hegerl GC (2010) Influence of modes of climate variability on global precipitation extremes. J Clim 23:6248–6262.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3617.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kirono DGC, Tapper NJ, McBride JL (1999) Documenting Indonesian rainfall in the 1997/1998 El Nino event. Phys Geogr 20:422–435.  https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.1999.10642687 Google Scholar
  27. Kusumaningtyas SDA, Aldrian E (2016) Impact of the June 2013 Riau province Sumatera smoke haze event on regional air pollution. Environ Res Lett 11:75007.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Lau NC, Nath MJ (2003) Atmosphere-ocean variations in the Indo-Pacific sector during ENSO episodes. J Clim 16:3–20.  https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0003:AOVITI>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Lestari S, Hamada J-I, Syamsudin F et al (2016) ENSO Influences on rainfall extremes around Sulawesi and Maluku islands in the eastern indonesian maritime continent. Sola 12:37–41.  https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2016-008 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Li W, Zhang P, Ye J et al (2011) Impact of two different types of El Niño events on the Amazon climate and ecosystem productivity. J Plant Ecol 4:91–99.  https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtq039 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Matsuno T (1966) Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 44:25–43.  https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Meehl GA, Tebaldi C, Teng H, Peterson TC (2007) Current and future U.S. weather extremes and El Niño. Geophys Res Lett 34:L20704.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031027 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Okoola RE (1999) A diagnostic study of the eastern Africa monsoon circulation during the Northern Hemisphere spring season. Int J Climatol 19:143–168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Pozo-Vazquez D, Esteban-Parra MJ, Rodrigo FS, Castro-Diez Y (2001) The Association between ENSO and Winter Atmospheric Circulation and Temperature in the North Atlantic Region. J Clim 14:3408–3420CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Qian J, Robertson AW, Moron V (2010) Interactions between ENSO, monsoon and diurnal cycle in rainfall variability over Java, Indonesia. J Atmos Sci 67:3509–3524.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3348.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Qian JH, Robertson AW, Moron V (2013) Diurnal cycle in different weather regimes and rainfall variability over borneo associated with ENSO. J Clim 26:1772–1790.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00178.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Ronchail J, Cochonneau G, Molinier M et al (2002) Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans. Int J Climatol 22:1663–1686.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.815 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Ruitenbeek J (1999) Indonesia. In: Glover D, Jessup T (eds) Indonesia’s Fire and Haze, the cost of catastrophe. The Institute of Southeast Asias Studies (ISEAS), Singapore, pp 86–129. https://www.idrc.ca/en/book/indonesias-fires-and-haze-cost-catastrophe-2006-update
  39. Salimun E, Tangang F, Juneng L et al (2014) Differential impacts of conventional El Niño versus El Niño Modoki on Malaysian rainfall anomaly during winter monsoon. Int J Climatol 34:2763–2774.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3873 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Shaman J (2014) The seasonal effects of ENSO on European precipitation: observational analysis. J Clim 27:6423–6438.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00008.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Sönmez I, Kömüşcü A (2011) Reclassification of rainfall regions of Turkey by K-means methodology and their temporal variability in relation to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Theor Appl Climatol 106:499–510.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0449-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Supari, Tangang F, Juneng L, Aldrian E (2017) Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over Indonesia. Int J Climatol 37:1979–1997.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4829 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Tangang F, Latif MT, Juneng L (2010) The roles of climate variability and climate change on smoke haze occurrences in Southeast Asia region. In: Kitchen N (ed) Climate change: is Southeast Asia up to the challenge? LSE IDEAS, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, pp 36–49Google Scholar
  44. Tangang F, Farzanmanesh R, Mirzaei A et al (2017) Characteristics of precipitation extremes in Malaysia associated with El Niño and La Niña events. Int J Climatol.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5032 Google Scholar
  45. Trenberth KE (1997) The Definition of El Niño. Bull Am Meteor Soc 78:2771–2777CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Villafuerte MQ, Matsumoto J (2015) Significant Influences of Global Mean Temperature and ENSO on Extreme Rainfall in Southeast Asia. J Clim 28:1905–1919.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00531.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Villafuerte MQ, Matsumoto J, Akasaka I et al (2014a) Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines. Atmos Res 137:1–13.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.09.021 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Villafuerte MQ, Matsumoto J, Kubota H (2014b) Changes in extreme rainfall in the Philippines (1911–2010) linked to global mean temperature and ENSO. Int J Climatol 35:2033–2044.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4105 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Wang B, Wu R, Li T (2003) Atmosphere-warm ocean interaction and its impacts on Asian–Australian monsoon variation. J Clim 16:1195–1211.  https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<1195:AOIAII>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Yuan X (2004) ENSO-related impacts on Antarctic sea ice: a synthesis of phenomenon and mechanisms. Antarct Sci 16:415–425.  https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102004002238 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Zhang X, Wang J, Zwiers FW, Groisman PY (2010) The influence of large-scale climate variability on winter maximum daily precipitation over North America. J Clim 23:2902–2915.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3249.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC et al (2011) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2:851–870.  https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Faculty of Science and TechnologyUniversiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaBangiMalaysia
  2. 2.Center for Climate Change InformationIndonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)JakartaIndonesia
  3. 3.Ramkhamhaeng University Center of Regional Climate Change and Renewable Energy (RU-CORE)Ramkhamhaeng UniversityBangkokThailand
  4. 4.Department of UPTHBIndonesia Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT)JakartaIndonesia
  5. 5.Center for R&DIndonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)JakartaIndonesia

Personalised recommendations