Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Interdecadal changes in winter surface air temperature over East Asia and their possible causes

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) for detecting the interdecadal changes in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), this study identifies that the intensity of the EAWM experienced remarkable transition around mid-1980s and late 2000s: a strong period (P1, 1960–1986), a weak period (P2, 1987–2007), and a strong period (P3, 2008–2015). A distinctive cold (warm) surface temperature anomaly is found over the Eurasian continent including East Asia, and cold (warm) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are present over the North Pacific (NP) during P1 (P2). In contrast with P1, the EAWM is characterized by a large temperature difference between Eurasian continent and NP, and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-like SST anomaly pattern is found over the NP during P3. During three periods, the Siberian high (SH) plays an important role in deciding the intensity of the EAWM. In addition, the EAWM exists under the influence of an enhanced atmospheric circulation associated with a positive North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and a negative PDO during P2 and P3, respectively. Accordingly, to recognize the relative importance of each combined effect which it differs for times, the combined effect of SH and NPO (SH and PDO) variability on the weakening (strengthening) EAWM is explored during P1 and P2 (P2 and P3). Consequently, while the atmospheric variabilities of SH and NPO bring about the weakening of EAWM after the mid-1980s, the SST variability related to PDO with the SH variabilty is involved in the strengthening of EAWM in recent decade.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bosilovich M, Lucchesi R, Suarez M (2015) MERRA-2: file specification. GMAO Office Note 9 (Version 1.0). 73. https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/office_notes

  • Cai M, Kalnay E (2004) Reply, climate (communication arising): impact of land-use change on climate. Nature 427:214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen J, Sun SQ (1999) East Asian winter monsoon anomaly and variation of global circulation. Part I: a comparison study on strong and weak winter monsoon. Chin J Atmos Sci 23:101–111

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen Z, Wu R, Chen W (2015) Effects of northern and southern components of the East Asian winter monsoon on SST changes in the western North Pacific. J Geophys Res 120(9):3888–3905

    Google Scholar 

  • Dee D et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J Roy Met Soc 137:535–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fang J, Yang XQ (2015) Structure and dynamics of decadal anomalies in the wintertime midlatitude North Pacific ocean–atmosphere system. 47:1989–2007

  • Gong DY, Ho CH (2002) The Siberian high and climate change over middle to high latitude Asia. Theor Appl Climatol 72(1–2):1–9

  • Gong DY, Wang SW, Zhu JH (2001) East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 28:2073–2076

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ha KJ, Heo KY, Lee SS, Yun KS, Jhun JG (2012) Variability in the East Asian monsoon: a review. Meteorol Appl 19:200–215. doi:10.1002/met.1320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He S (2013) Reduction of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability after the mid-1980s and possible cause. Chin J Atmos Sci 58(12):1331–1338

    Google Scholar 

  • He SP, Wang HJ (2013) Oscillating relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00174.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Heo K-Y, Ha K-J, Lee S-S (2012) Warming of western North Pacific Ocean and energetics of transient eddy activity. Mon Weather Rev 140:2860–2873

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hori ME, Ueda H (2006) Impact of global warming on the East Asian winter monsoon as revealed by nine coupled atmosphereocean GCMs. Geophys Res Lett 33:L03713. doi:10.1029/2005GL024961

    Google Scholar 

  • Hu C, Yang S, Wu Q (2015) An optimal index for measuring the effect of East Asian winter monsoon on China winter temperature. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2493-5

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang NE, Wu Z (2008) A review on Hilbert-Huang transform: Method and its applications to geophysical studies. Rev Geophys 46:RG2006. doi:10.1029/2007RG000228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang N, Shen Z, Long S, Wu M, Shih H, Zheng Q, Yen N, Tung C, Liu H (1998) The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis. Proc R Soc Lond 454:903–995

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang RH, Chen JL, Huang G (2007) Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China. Adv Atmos Sci 24:993–1023. doi:10.1007/s00376-007-0993-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jeong JH, Ou TH, Linderholm HW, Kim BM, Kim SJ, Kug JS, Chen DL (2011) Recent recovery of the Siberian High intensity. J Geophys Res 116. doi:10.1029/2011jd015904

  • Jhun JG, Lee EJ (2004) A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of winter monsoon. J Clim 17:711–726

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ji F, Wu Z, Huang J, Eric P (2014) Evolution of land surface air temperature trend. Nat Clim Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate2223

    Google Scholar 

  • Jo YH, Breaker LC, Tseng YH, Yeh SW (2014) A temporal multiscale analysis of the waters off the east coast of South Korea over the past four decades. Terr Atmos Oceanic Sci 25(3):415–434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Cai M (2003) Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nature 423:528–531. doi:10.1038/nature01675

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorl Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo J, Fiorino JM, Potter JP (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim Y, Kim KY, Jhun JG (2013) Seasonal mechanism of the East Asian winter monsoon and its interannual variability. Clim Dyn 41:1213–1228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim YH, Kim MK, Lau WK, Kim KM, Cho CH (2015) Possible mechanism of abrupt jump in winter surface air temperature in the late 1980s over the Northern Hemisphere. J Geophys Res 120(24):12474–12485

    Google Scholar 

  • Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y, Ebita A, Moriya M, Onoda H, Onogi K, Kamahori H, Kobayashi C, Endo H, Miyaoka K, Takahashi K (2015) The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorol Soc Jap 93: doi:10.2151/jmsj.2015-001

  • Krishnamurthy L, Krishnamurthy V (2013) Influence of PDO on South Asian monsoon and monsoon-ENSO relation. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1856-z

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Sugi M (2003) Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 21:233–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Latif M, Barnett TP (1994) Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science 266:634–637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee SS, Kim SH, Jhun JG, Ha KJ, Seo YW (2013) Robust warming over East Asia during boreal winter monsoon and its possible causes. Environ Res Lett 8(3):34001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu C, Xie S, Qin Y, Zhou J (2016) Recent intensified winter coldness in the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and its relationship with daily extreme low temperature variability. Advances in Meteorology 2016

  • Meehl GA, Teng H, Arblaster JM (2014) Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming. Nat Clim Change 4:898–902. doi:10.1038/nclimate2357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minobe S (1997) A 50–70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys Res Lett 24:683–686

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newman M, Alexander MA, Ault TR, Cobb KM, Deser C, Di Lorenzo E, Mantua NJ, Miller AJ, Minobe S, Nakamura H, Schneider N, Vimont DJ, Phillips AS, Scott JD, Smith CA (2016) The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited. J Clim 29:4399–4427. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oh H, Jhun JG, Ha KJ, Seo KH (2017) Combined effect of the East Atlantic/West Russia and Western Pacific teleconnections on the East Asian winter monsoon. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 53(2):273–285

  • Overland J, Rodionov S, Minobe S, Bond N (2008) North Pacific regime shifts: definitions, issues and recent transitions. Prog Oceanogr 77(2):92–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pak G, Park YH, Vivier F, Kwon YO, Chang KI (2014) Regime-dependent nonstationary relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and North Pacific Oscillation. J Clim 27(21):8185–8204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Panagiotopoulos F, Shahgedanova M, Hannachi A, Stephenson DB (2005) Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: a recently declining center of action. J Clim 18(9):1411–1422

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park YH, Yoon JH, Youn YH, Vivier F (2012) Recent warming in the Western North Pacific in relation to rapid changes in the atmospheric circulation of the Siberian high and aleutian low systems. J Clim 25(10):3476–3493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian C (2016) Disentangling the urbanization effect, multi-decadal variability, and secular trend in temperature in eastern China during 1909–2010. Atmos Sci Lett 17(2):177–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian C, Zhang X (2015) Human influences on changes in the temperature seasonality in mid- to high-latitude land areas. J Clim 28(15):5908 – 5921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian C, Zhou T (2014) Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900–2010. J Clim 27(3):1210–1222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian C, Wu Z, Fu C, Wang D (2011) On changing El Niño: A view from time-varying annual cycle, interannual variability and mean state. J Clim 24(24):6486–6500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodionov SN (2006) Use of prewhitening in climate regime shift detection. Geophys Res Lett 33:L12707. doi:10.1029/2006GL025904

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers JC (1981) The North Pacific Oscillation. Int J Climatol 1:39–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider N, Cornuelle BD (2005) The forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. J Clim 18:4355–4373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seager R, Kushnir Y, Naik N, Cane MA, Miller JA (2001) Wind-driven shifts in the latitude of the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension and generation of SST anomalies on decadal time scales. J Clim 14:4249–4265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun C, Yang S, Li W, Zhang R, Wu R (2016a) Interannual variations of the dominant modes of East Asian winter monsoon and possible links to Arctic sea ice. Clim Dyn 47:481–496. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2851-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun J, Wu S, Ao J (2016b) Role of the North Pacific sea surface temperature in the East Asian winter monsoon decadal variability. Clim Dyn 46:3793–3805. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2805-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor WA (2000) Change-point analysis: a powerful new tool for detecting changes. http://www.variation.com/cpa/tech/changepoint.html

  • Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25:1297–1300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tian Y, Kidokoro H, Watanabe T, Iguchi N (2008) The late 1980s regime shift in the ecosystem of Tsushima warm current in the Japan/East Sea: evidence from historical data and possible mechanisms. Prog Oceanogr 77(2):127–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT (2013) An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth’s Fut 1:19–32. doi:10.1002/2013EF000165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang L, Chen W (2010) Downward Arctic Oscillation signal associated with moderate weak stratospheric polar vortex and the cold December 2009. Geophys Res Lett 37:L09707. doi:10.1029/2010GL042659

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu Z, Chang C, Liu J, Li J, Zhou T (2010) Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian Winter Monsoon: the Northern and Southern temperature modes. J Clim 23:1495–1512

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watanabe M, Nitta T (1999) Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J Clim 12(2):494–510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu Z, Huang NE (2004) A study of the characteristics of white noise using the empirical mode decomposition method. Proc R Soc Lond 460A:1597–1611

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu Z, Huang NE (2009) Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method. Adv Adap Data Anal 1:1–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu B, Wang J (2002) Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian High and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 29(19):1897. doi:10.1029/2002GL015373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu ZY, Chen HX, Liu N (2010) Relationship between east China Sea Kuroshio and climatic elements in East China. Mar SciBull 12:1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu W, Wen ZP, Wu R, Wang TM (2011) Air–Sea interaction over the subtropical North Pacific during the ENSO transition phase. J Clim 24:5772–5785

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yasunaka S, Hanawa K (2002) Regime shifts found in the Northern Hemisphere SST field. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 80:119–135

  • Ye K, Wu R, Liu Y (2015) Interdecadal change of Eurasian snow, surface temperature, and atmospheric circulation in the late 1980s. J Geophys Res 120(7):2738–2753

    Google Scholar 

  • Yeh SW, Kim CH (2010) Recent warming in the Yellow/East China Sea during winter and the associated atmospheric circulation. Cont Shelf Res 30:1428–1434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeh SW, Kang YJ, Noh Y, Miller AJ (2011) The North Pacific climate transitions of the winters of 1976/77 and 1988/89. J Clim 24:1170–1183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu L, Jin X, Weller RA (2008) Multidecade global flux datasets from the objectively analyzed air–sea fluxes (OAFlux) project: latent and sensible heat fluxes, ocean evaporation, and related surface meteorological variables. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, OAFlux Project Technical Report. OA-2008-01. Woods Hole. p 64

  • Zhang HQ, Qin J, Li Y (2011) Climatic background of cold and wet winter in southern China: part 1 observational analysis. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1022-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Sielmann F, Fraedrich K, Zhu X, Zhi X (2015) Variability of winter extreme precipitation in Southeast China: contributions of SST anomalies. Clim Dyn 45:2557–2570. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2492-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou W, Li C, Wang X (2007) Possible connection between Pacific Oceanic interdecadal pathway and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 34:L01701

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Korean Ocean Research and Development Institute as “Construction of ocean research stations and their application studies”, the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as “Graduate School specialized in Climate Change” and GRL grant of the National Research Foundation (NRF) funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2011-0021927).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, 46241, South Korea

    Junghee Yun & Kyung-Ja Ha

  2. Department of Oceanography, Pusan National University, Busan, 46241, South Korea

    Young-Heon Jo

Authors
  1. Junghee Yun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kyung-Ja Ha
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Young-Heon Jo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kyung-Ja Ha.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yun, J., Ha, KJ. & Jo, YH. Interdecadal changes in winter surface air temperature over East Asia and their possible causes. Clim Dyn 51, 1375–1390 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3960-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3960-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation