Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Changes in the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming: moisture budget decompositions and the sources of uncertainty

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We investigated the changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall under global warming based on the historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 runs of 18 models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Because the mechanism of rainfall changes under global warming studied in previous studies is widely based on the moisture budget decompositions (MBDs), we first evaluated the applicability of three MBDs for the changes in the EASM rainfall, which are two complete MBDs in Chou et al. (J Clim 22(8):1982–2005; Chou et al., J Clim 22(8):1982–2005, 2009) and Seager et al. (J Clim 23(17):4651–4668; Seager et al., J Clim 23(17):4651–4668, 2010), and the simplified MBD in Huang et al. (Nat Geosci 6(5):357–361; Huang et al., Nat Geosci 6(5):357–361, 2013). The results show that the simplified MBD in Huang et al. (Nat Geosci 6(5):357–361, 2013) is applicable for the EASM rainfall changes, providing an efficient way to study the EASM rainfall changes, which is used in this study. The EASM rainfall changes can be well explained by two components: the thermodynamic component due to the increase in specific humidity and the dynamic component due to the changes in EASM circulation changes. The thermodynamic component is quite robust among the models, whereas the dynamic component with the circulation changes contributes the major uncertainties of the EASM rainfall changes. Moreover, the apparent intermodel difference in the background circulation is another important source of the EASM rainfall changes. The results imply that the background and changes of the EASM circulation are the key factors for further narrowing the uncertainties of the projected EASM rainfall changes.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bony S, Bellon G, Klocke D, Sherwood S, Fermepin S, Denvil S (2013) Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation. Nat Geosci 6(6):447–451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown JR, Colman RA, Moise AF, Smith IN (2013) The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(22):12,458–12,475

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown JR, Moise AF, Colman R, Zhang H (2016) Will a warmer world mean a wetter or drier Australian monsoon? J Clim 29(12):4577–4596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Sun J (2013) Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under rcp scenario. Meteorol Atmos Phys 121(1–2):55–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen XL, Zhou TJ (2015) Distinct effects of global mean warming and regional sea surface warming pattern on projected uncertainty in the South Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 42(21):9433–9439

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chou C, Lan C-W (2012) Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming. J Clim 25(1):222–235

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chou C, Neelin JD (2004) Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation. J Clim 17:2688–2701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chou C, Neelin JD, Chen C-A, Tu J-Y (2009) Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J Clim 22(8):1982–2005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Endo H, Kitoh A (2014) Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate. Geophys Res Lett 41(5):1704–1711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Endo H, Kitoh A. In: de Carvalho LMV (2016) Projecting changes of the Asian summer monsoon through the twenty-first century. In: Jones C (ed) The monsoons and climate change: Observations and modeling. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 47–66

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Fasullo J (2012) A mechanism for land–ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate. Clim Dyn 39(5):1137–1147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90(8):1095–1107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He J, Soden BJ, Kirtman B (2014) The robustness of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation response to future anthropogenic surface warming. Geophys Res Lett 41(7):2614–2622

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686–5699

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsu P-c, Li T, Luo J-J, Murakami H, Kitoh A, Zhao M (2012) Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: A robust signal? Geophys Res Lett 39(6):L06701

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsu P-c, Li T, Murakami H, Kitoh A (2013) Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1247–1260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang P (2014) Regional response of annual-mean tropical rainfall to global warming. Atmos Sci Lett 15(2):103–109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang P (2016) Time-varying response of ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 models. Part I: Multimodel ensemble results. J Clim 29(16):5763–5778

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang P (2017) Time-varying response of ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 models. Part II: Intermodel uncertainty. J Clim 30(2):595–608

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang P, Chen D (2017) Enlarged asymmetry of tropical Pacific rainfall anomalies induced by El Niño and La Niña under global warming. J Clim 30(4):1327–1343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang P, Xie S-P (2015) Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate. Nat Geosci 8(12):922–926

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang P, Xie S-P, Hu K, Huang G, Huang R (2013) Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming. Nat Geosci 6(5):357–361

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kamae Y, Watanabe M, Kimoto M, Shiogama H (2014) Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming. Clim Dyn 43(9–10):2569–2583

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kent C, Chadwick R, Rowell DP (2015) Understanding uncertainties in future projections of seasonal tropical precipitation. J Clim 28(11):4390–4413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kimoto M (2005) Simulated change of the east Asian circulation under global warming scenario. Geophys Res Lett 32 (16)

  • Kitoh A, Endo H, Krishna Kumar K, Cavalcanti IFA, Goswami P, Zhou T (2013) Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(8):3053–3065

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani RH, Oh JH, Chaudhari HS (2007) Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to doubled atmospheric CO2: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor Appl Climatol 87(1–4):1–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kusunoki S, Arakawa O (2012) Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by CMIP3 models. Clim Dyn 38(9–10):2055–2072

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li XQ, Ting MF, Li CH, Henderson N (2015) Mechanisms of Asian summer monsoon changes in response to anthropogenic forcing in CMIP5 models. J Clim 28(10):4107–4125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Long S-M, Xie S-P (2015) Intermodel variations in projected precipitation change over the North Atlantic: Sea surface temperature effect. Geophys Res Lett 42(10):4158–4165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Long S-M, Xie S-P, Liu W (2016) Uncertainty in tropical rainfall projections: Atmospheric circulation effect and the ocean coupling. J Clim 29(7):2671–2687

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma J, Xie S-P (2013) Regional patterns of sea surface temperature change: A source of uncertainty in future projections of precipitation and atmospheric circulation. J Clim 26(8):2482–2501

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Washington WM (1993) South Asian summer monsoon variability in a model with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Science 260:1101–1104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi GA (2010) Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim 23(17):4651–4668

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seager R, Naik N, Vogel L (2012) Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability? J Clim 25(9):3355–3372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shepherd TG (2014) Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Nat Geosci 7(10):703–708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sooraj KP, Terray P, Mujumdar M (2015) Global warming and the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation: Assessments from the CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 45(1–2):233–252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sooraj KP, Terray P, Xavier P (2016) Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: Assessments using CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 46(11–12):4003–4025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tedeschi RG, Collins M (2016) The influence of ENSO on South American precipitation: Simulation and projection in CMIP5 models. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4919

    Google Scholar 

  • Ueda H, Iwai A, Kuwako K, Hori ME (2006) Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs. Geophys Res Lett 33(6):L06703

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2014CB953904), the Natural Science Foundation of China (41425019 and 41661144016), the public science and technology research funds projects of ocean (201505013) and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP5, and the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Shijie Zhou, Gang Huang & Ping Huang

  2. Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China

    Gang Huang & Ping Huang

  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Shijie Zhou & Gang Huang

  4. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China

    Ping Huang

Authors
  1. Shijie Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Gang Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ping Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ping Huang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhou, S., Huang, G. & Huang, P. Changes in the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming: moisture budget decompositions and the sources of uncertainty. Clim Dyn 51, 1363–1373 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3959-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3959-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation