Climate Dynamics

, Volume 53, Issue 12, pp 7479–7495 | Cite as

ENSO influence on the dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

  • Daehyun Kang
  • Myong-In LeeEmail author


This study examined the forecast skill for the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) using the following state-of-the-art dynamical seasonal prediction systems: CanCM3, CanCM4, CFSv2, CM2.1, and GEOS-5. To assess the prediction skills and the associations with ENSO teleconnections of these systems, long-term seasonal hindcast data sets for 28 years (1983–2010) were investigated. Observational data indicated that the ENSO–EAWM connection strengthened in a recent period (1997–2010; r = −0.84) compared with that in an earlier period (1983–1996; r = −0.44). For the recent period, a practical level of prediction skill for the EAWM index was retained by CFSv2 and GEOS-5 for the lead time of 2 months or longer, with these models showing a realistic ENSO–EAWM relationship throughout the Western Pacific Warm Pool with east–west dipole anomalies of precipitation induced by ENSO. The prediction skill of the other models was poor, even for lead times of zero to 1 month, with weak ENSO–EAWM relationships and errant north–south dipole anomalies of precipitation associated with ENSO. A large model spread was also found consistently in the CMIP5 AMIP and the Historical simulations by 14 models of the spatial pattern of equatorial Pacific precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the effect on the ENSO–EAWM relationship. Based on this study, the accurate prediction of EAWM should be linked with a realistic representation of the convection response in the equatorial Pacific by ENSO and the teleconnection to EAWM.


Seasonal prediction East Asian Winter Monsoon ENSO Teleconnection Decadal variability 



This study was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA 2016-6010. Daehyun Kang is also supported by Fostering Core Leaders of the Future Basic Science Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2014H1A8A1022342). The authors appreciate helpful comments and discussions from Fei-Fei Jin, Ji-Won Kim, and Yoshimitsu Chikamoto.

Supplementary material

382_2017_3574_MOESM1_ESM.docx (2.4 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 2428 KB)


  1. Balmaseda M, Anderson D (2009) Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill. Geophys Res Lett 36(1):L01701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bond NA, Overland JE, Spillane M, Stabeno P (2003) Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 30(23):2183CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Chang C, Lau K (1980) Northeasterly cold surges and near-equatorial disturbances over the winter MONEX area during December 1974. Part II: planetary-scale aspects. Mon Weather Rev 108:298–312CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Cheung HN, Zhou W, Mok HY, Wu MC (2012) Relationship between Ural–Siberian blocking and the East Asian winter monsoon in relation to the Arctic oscillation and the El Niño–Southern oscillation. J Clim 25(12):4242–4257CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Cohen JL, Furtado JC, Barlow MA, Alexeev VA, Cherry JE (2012) Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environ Res Lett 7(1):014007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cravatte S, Delcroix T, Zhang D, McPhaden M, Leloup J (2009) Observed freshening and warming of the western Pacific Warm Pool. Clim Dyn 33(4):565–589CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Delworth TL, Broccoli AJ, Rosati A, Stouffer RJ, Balaji V, Beesley JA, Cooke WF, Dixon KW, Dunne J, Dunne K (2006) GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J Clim 19(5):643–674CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. England MH, McGregor S, Spence P, Meehl GA, Timmermann A, Cai W, Gupta AS, McPhaden MJ, Purich A, Santoso A (2014) Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat Clim Change 4(3):222–227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Frauen C, Dommenget D, Tyrrell N, Rezny M, Wales S (2014) Analysis of the nonlinearity of El Niño–Southern oscillation teleconnections. J Clim 27(16):6225–6244CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Graf H-F, Zanchettin D (2012) Central Pacific El Niño, the “subtropical bridge,” and Eurasian climate. J Geophys Res 117(D1), D01102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. He S, Wang H (2013) Oscillating relationship between the East Asian Winter monsoon and ENSO. J Clim 26(24):9819–9838CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Hunter T, Tootle G, Piechota T (2006) Oceanic-atmospheric variability and western U.S. snowfall. Geophys Res Lett 33(13)Google Scholar
  13. Jeong J-H, Ho C-H (2005) Changes in occurrence of cold surges over east Asia in association with Arctic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 32(14):L14704CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Jhun J-G, Lee E-J (2004) A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J Clim 17:711–726CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Jiang X, Yang S, Li Y, Kumar A, Wang W, Gao Z (2013) Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(3):1312–1328CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Johnson NC, Xie S-P (2010) Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. Nat Geosci 3(12):842–845CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Kang D, Lee M-I, Im J, Kim D, Kim H-M, Kang H-S, Schubert SD, Arribas A, MacLachlan C (2014) Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in boreal winter by dynamical seasonal forecasting systems. Geophys Res Lett 41(10):3577–3585CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kim D, Kug J-S, Kang I-S, Jin F-F, Wittenberg AT (2008) Tropical Pacific impacts of convective momentum transport in the SNU coupled GCM. Clim Dyn 31(2–3):213–226CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Kim J-W, Yeh S-W, Chang E-C (2014) Combined effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim Dyn 42(3–4):957–971CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kim J-W, An S-I, Jun S-Y, Park H-J, Yeh S-W (2016) ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3371-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kirtman BP, Min D, Infanti JM, Kinter JL, Paolino DA, Zhang Q, van den Dool H, Saha S, Mendez MP, Becker E, Peng P, Tripp P, Huang J, DeWitt DG, Tippett MK, Barnston AG, Li S, Rosati A, Schubert SD, Rienecker M, Suarez M, Li ZE, Marshak J, Lim Y-K, Tribbia J, Pegion K, Merryfield WJ, Denis B, Wood EF (2014) The North American multimodel ensemble: phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction; phase-2 toward developing intraseasonal prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95(4):585–601CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Krishnamurti TN, Kishtawal CM, LaRow TE, Bachiochi DR, Zhang D, Williford CE, Gadgil S, Surendran S (1999) Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science 285:1548–1550CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kug J-S, Ahn M-S, Sung M-K, Yeh S-W, Min H-S, Kim Y-H (2010) Statistical relationship between two types of El Niño events and climate variation over the Korean Peninsula. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 46(4):467–474CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Lee T, McPhaden MJ (2010) Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 37(14)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Lee S-S, Lee J-Y, Ha K-J, Wang B, Schemm JKE (2011) Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 36(5–6):1173–1188CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Lee J-Y, Lee S-S, Wang B, Ha K-J, Jhun J-G (2013) Seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian winter temperature variability. Clim Dyn 41(3–4):573–587CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Lee M-I, Kang H-S, Kim D, Kim D, Kim H, Kang D (2014) Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 50(3):307–326CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Li Y, Yang S (2010) A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim 23(15):4255–4262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Mantua NJ, Hare SR (2002) The pacific decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr 58:35–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. McGregor S, Timmermann A, Stuecker MF, England MH, Merrifield M, Jin F-F, Chikamoto Y (2014) Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming. Nat Clim Change 4(10):888–892CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Merryfield WJ, Lee W-S, Boer GJ, Kharin VV, Scinocca JF, Flato GM, Ajayamohan RS, Fyfe JC, Tang Y, Polavarapu S (2013) The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I: models and initialization. Mon Weather Rev 141(8):2910–2945CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Overland J, Rodionov S, Minobe S, Bond N (2008) North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions. Prog Oceanogr 77(2–3):92–102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Park J-H, An S-I (2014) The impact of tropical western Pacific convection on the North Pacific atmospheric circulation during the boreal winter. Clim Dyn 43(7–8):2227–2238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Behringer D, Hou Y-T, Chuang H-y, Iredell M, Ek M, Meng J, Yang R, Mendez MP, van den Dool H, Zhang Q, Wang W, Chen M, Becker E (2014) The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 27(6):2185–2208CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Schiemann R, Demory ME, Mizielinski MS, Roberts MJ, Shaffrey LC, Strachan J, Vidale PL (2014) The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution. Clim Dyn 42(9–10):2455–2468CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Sohn S-J, Tam C-Y, Park C-K (2011) Leading modes of east asian winter climate variability and their predictability: an assessment of the APCC multi-model ensemble. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 89(5):455–474CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Vannière B, Guilyardi E, Madec G, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Woolnough S (2013) Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO. Clim Dyn 40(3–4):963–981CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Vernieres G, Rienecker MM, Kovach R, Keppenne CL (2012) The GEOS-iODAS: description and evaluation. NASA technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation, NASA/TM-2012-104606 30Google Scholar
  39. Wang L, Chen W (2014) An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim 27(6):2361–2374CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific–East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Wang B, Lee J-Y, Kang IS, Shukla J, Kug JS, Kumar A, Schemm J, Luo JJ, Yamagata T, Park CK (2008a) How accurately do coupled climate models predict the leading modes of Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability? Clim Dyn 30(6):605–619CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Wang L, Chen W, Huang R (2008b) Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the east Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 35(20)Google Scholar
  43. Wang B, Lee J-Y, Kang I-S, Shukla J, Park CK, Kumar A, Schemm J, Cocke S, Kug JS, Luo JJ, Zhou T, Wang B, Fu X, Yun WT, Alves O, Jin EK, Kinter J, Kirtman B, Krishnamurti T, Lau NC, Lau W, Liu P, Pegion P, Rosati T, Schubert S, Stern W, Suarez M, Yamagata T (2009) Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004). Clim Dyn 33(1):93–117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Wang B, Wu Z, Chang C-P, Liu J, Li J, Zhou T (2010) Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: the northern and southern temperature modes. J Clim 23(6):1495–1512CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Wu Z, Li J, Jiang Z, He J (2011) Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter. Clim Dyn 37(7–8):1661–1669CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Yoon J, Yeh S-W, Kim Y-H, Kug J-S, Min HS (2012) Understanding the responses of sea surface temperature to the two different types of El Niño in the western North Pacific. Prog Oceanogr 105:81–89CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Zhang Y, Sperber KR, Boyle JS (1997) Climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon: results from the 1979–95 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Mon Weather Rev 125:2605–2619CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Zhou W, Chan JCL, Chen W, Ling J, Pinto JG, Shao Y (2009) Synoptic-scale controls of persistent low temperature and icy weather over Southern China in January 2008. Mon Weather Rev 137(11):3978–3991CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Urban and Environmental EngineeringUlsan National Institute of Science and TechnologyUlsanRepublic of Korea

Personalised recommendations