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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 48, Issue 7–8, pp 2489–2505 | Cite as

Recent trends and tele-connections among South and East Asian summer monsoons in a warming environment

  • B. Preethi
  • M. Mujumdar
  • R. H. Kripalani
  • Amita Prabhu
  • R. Krishnan
Article

Abstract

Recent trends, variations and tele-connections between the two large regional sub-systems over the Asian domain, the South Asian and the East Asian monsoons are explored using data for the 1901–2014 period. Based on trend analysis a dipole-type configuration with north-drought and south-flood over South as well as East Asia is observed. Two regions over South Asia, one exhibiting a significant decreasing trend in summer monsoon rainfall over northeast India and the other significant increasing trend over the northern parts of the west coast of India are identified. Similarly two regions over East Asia, one over South Korea-southern parts of Japan and the other over South China are also identified both indicating a significant increasing trend in the summer monsoon rainfall. These trends are examined post 1970s. Possible factors associated with the recent trends are explored. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure and winds at lower troposphere indicates that the entire monsoon flow system appears to have shifted westwards, with the monsoon trough over South Asia indicating a westward shift by about 2–3° longitudes and the North Pacific Subtropical High over East Asia seems to have shifted by about 5–7° longitudes. These shifts are consistent with the recent rainfall trends. Furthermore, while the West Indian Ocean SSTs appear to be related with the summer monsoon rainfall over northern parts of India and over North China, the West Pacific SSTs appear to be related with the rainfall over southern parts of India and over South Korea- southern Japan sector.

Keywords

Monsoon rainfall South Asia East Asia West Pacific Ocean West Indian Ocean 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for constant encouragement and for providing the necessary facilities to carry out this study. IITM is fully funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India. The CRU rainfall datasets have been downloaded from <http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/data/>. The authors acknowledge the Hadley Centre, United Kingdom Met Office for HadISST and HadSLP2 datasets, obtained from <http://hadobs.metoffice.com/>. NCEP Reanalysis data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, are obtained from their web site at <http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/>. Figures in the manuscript are created using the COLA/GrADS software. Last but not the least; the authors thank the Reviewers for constructive and fruitful suggestions on the earlier versions.

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© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • B. Preethi
    • 1
    • 2
  • M. Mujumdar
    • 1
  • R. H. Kripalani
    • 1
    • 3
  • Amita Prabhu
    • 1
  • R. Krishnan
    • 1
  1. 1.Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)PuneIndia
  2. 2.Department of Atmospheric and Space ScienceSavitribai Phule Pune UniversityPuneIndia
  3. 3.International CLIVAR Monsoon Project Office, IITMPuneIndia

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