Evaluating the Capabilities of Soil Enthalpy, Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature in Predicting Seasonal Precipitation
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Soil enthalpy (H) contains the combined effects of both soil moisture (w) and soil temperature (T) in the land surface hydrothermal process. In this study, the sensitivities of H to w and T are investigated using the multi-linear regression method. Results indicate that T generally makes positive contributions to H, while w exhibits different (positive or negative) impacts due to soil ice effects. For example, w negatively contributes to H if soil contains more ice; however, after soil ice melts, w exerts positive contributions. In particular, due to lower w interannual variabilities in the deep soil layer (i.e., the fifth layer), H is more sensitive to T than to w. Moreover, to compare the potential capabilities of H, w and T in precipitation (P) prediction, the Huanghe–Huaihe Basin (HHB) and Southeast China (SEC), with similar sensitivities of H to w and T, are selected. Analyses show that, despite similar spatial distributions of H–P and T–P correlation coefficients, the former values are always higher than the latter ones. Furthermore, H provides the most effective signals for P prediction over HHB and SEC, i.e., a significant leading correlation between May H and early summer (June) P. In summary, H, which integrates the effects of T and w as an independent variable, has greater capabilities in monitoring land surface heating and improving seasonal P prediction relative to individual land surface factors (e.g., T and w).
Key wordsseasonal precipitation prediction land surface process soil enthalpy soil moisture soil temperature
土壤焓(H)综合考虑陆面过程中土壤湿度(w)和土壤温度(T)的变化. 首先, 本文使用多元线性回归方法分析H对w和T的敏感性. 结果表明, T对H的贡献为正, 而w对H贡献的正负受到土壤固态水的影响. 当土壤中存在大量固态水时, w越多, H越小; 当固态水融化后, w越多, H越大. 深层土壤中w的年际变化较弱, H对T的变化更加敏感. 此外, 为了比较H与w, T在降水(P)预测中的潜在能力, 选取H对w, T敏感性相当的黄淮流域, 东南沿海地区作为分析区域. 分析表明, 尽管H-P相关的空间分布与 T-P的相似, 但前者的相关性表现得更强; 最有效的 P预测信号存在于初夏 P与前期5月 H之间. 总之, 作为一个综合 w和 T变化的物理量, H较单一的陆面因子而言, 能够更加全面地表征陆面热力状况并具有提高降水预测的能力.
关键词季节性降水预测 陆面过程 土壤焓 土壤湿度 土壤温度
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This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230422 and 41625019), the Special Fund for Research in the Public Interest of China (Grant No. GYHY201206017), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China (Grant Nos. BK20130047 and BK20151525), the Research Innovation Program for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. KYLX 0823), and a project funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
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