Total knee arthroplasty in Italy: reflections from the last fifteen years and projections for the next thirty
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Annual rates of knee arthroplasty are increasing in all developed countries, imposing a significant economic and organizational burden; it is crucial to forecast the future need for knee arthroplasty, to assist stakeholders in planning strategies and investments, especially in a country like Italy, with the largest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe. Few epidemiological studies have been performed worldwide to estimate the demand for future knee replacement, and a variety of methods have been proposed.
We investigated the epidemiology of knee arthroplasty performed in Italy in the last 15 years and projected incidence rates up to the year 2050, utilizing, comparing, and adapting the available methodologies.
From 2001 to 2016, 812,639 primary TKA were performed in Italy on patients over 40. The total number of surgeries increased by 262% with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%.
Adopting the best fitting projection method, an increase of 45% in incidence rate is expected for 2050.
KeywordsTotal knee arthroplasty Epidemiology Projections Hospital discharge data
The authors wish to thank Mascia Masciocchi and Stefania Ceccarelli.
Conception and design (ER, MT), acquisition of data (MT, IL, PL), statistical analysis (FD, EC), drafting of the article (ER, MT, FD, GZ, MV). All authors interpreted results, revised critically, and approved the final version of the manuscript.
Francesco Decarolis thankfully acknowledges financial support from the European Research Council (ERC Starting Grant 679217).
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.
The design of this study did not require any informed consent.
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