The effect of terror and economic sector in early career years on future career path

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The study uses the deterioration of security situation in Israel (the “Intifada”) to investigate the uniqueness of results obtained previously in regard to Israel’s security-guard industry, as against other economic sectors, in regard to the employment stability and its implications for future career path. The findings emphasize the negative effect of a person’s mere presence in the labor market during the Intifada on his career path, irrespective of the industry in which he worked. They emphasize the variance attributed to the economic sector in which people hold their first job on their future employment career, as well as the variance attributed to working as a security guard during the Intifada, with the upturn in terror associated with it. The findings stress the role that policymakers should play for minimizing possible adverse effects on the earning trajectory and labor-market attachment of employed persons at a time of declining security and the emphasis and attention that should be given to persons employed in the security-guard industry at any time—due to the inferiority of permanent employment patterns in this industry in contrast to other industries—to minimize possible impairment to their earning trajectory and assure their long-term attachment to the labor market.

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Fig. 1

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics Labor Force Survey and processing by author

Fig. 2

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics Labor Force Survey and processing by author

Fig. 3

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics Labor Force Survey and processing by author

Fig. 4

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics Income Survey and processing by author

Fig. 5

Source: Income tax data and processing by author

Fig. 6

Source: Income tax data and processing by author


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I thank Daniel Tsiddon and Dmitri Romanov for their valuable suggestions.

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Correspondence to Aviad Tur-Sinai.

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See Table 11.

Table 11 Persons newly employed (males aged 20–30) in economic branch, pre-Intifada and during-Intifada cohorts.

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Tur-Sinai, A. The effect of terror and economic sector in early career years on future career path. Empir Econ (2019) doi:10.1007/s00181-019-01737-x

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  • Employment mobility
  • Income mobility
  • Labor-market attachment
  • Career development
  • Difference-in-differences

JEL Classification

  • J22
  • J31
  • J62