Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt

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Abstract

An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).

Keywords

Seismicity of Egypt seismotectonic model probabilistic seismic hazard logic-tree framework 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Editor in Chief Prof. Fabio Romanili and the anonymous reviewers for their critical reviews which have greatly helped to improve the revised version. We would like to thank Dr. Vladimir Sokolov, at the National Center of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, Saudi Geological Survey, to for reading and revising current version of the manuscript. This work has been carried out at seismology division of the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Seismology DepartmentNational Research Institute of Astronomy and GeophysicsCairoEgypt

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