Which do you Choose, Marriage or Career?: Econometric Analysis Using JPSC Panel Data

  • Risa HagiwaraEmail author


This research investigates the marriage decision and continued regular employment decision for women in Japan. There is still a negative correlation between marriage and continued regular employment which affects household formation and career success for women. The marriage decision changes females’ later working life. Married women, especially married regularly employed women, often resign from their job. In this paper, we assume that women decide to marry and still keep working through considering “imputed income” for marriage and employment. These are important prognostic factors for the choice of marriage or employment. We are also interested in the degree of “marriage intention”. There is a possibility that marriage intention describes a preference for being a full-time housewife, and affects not only marriage but also employment. We examine the mechanism of marriage and continued regular employment decisions for women by estimating the bivariate probit model with the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers data from 1993 to 2007. From our estimation results, we found that 1) women decide to marry when imputed income for marriage is high, and imputed income for employment is low, 2) women decide to continue working as regular employees when imputed income for marriage is low even if the effect of imputed income for marriage is not strong, and imputed income for employment is high, 3) marriage intention affects the marriage decision but does not affect continued regular employment decision, 4) the relationship between marriage and continued regular employment for women is negative even if we control for both imputed incomes and marriage intention.

Key words

Imputed income Marriage intention Joint equation model 

JEL Classification

J12 J24 C25 


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In this paper, we use data from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers (JPSC) from the Institute for Research on Household Economics. We are grateful to the Institute for Research on Household Economics, Professor Ryokichi Chida, Professor Yoshio Higuchi, Associate Professor Akiko Sakanishi, Professor Yasuhide Tanaka, anonymous referees of this journal, and participants of The 10th International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association. Needless to say, all remaining errors are the author’s.


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Copyright information

© Japan Economic Policy Association (JEPA) 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Graduate School of Business and CommerceKeio UniversityJapan
  2. 2.Japan Society for the Promotion of ScienceTokyoJapan

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