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Lohn- und Preisgleichungen für Österreich

Summary

In this paper wage and price equations for austria are presented. Estimations were performed with yearly and quarterly data for the period 1959 to 1973.

Emphasis is centered on the wage equation. A simple, nonlinear Phillips curve explains wage increases quite satisfactorily even though the rate of inflation has accelerated since 1968. Comparisons with earlier estimates of Phillips curves are performed. They exhibit a rather stable relation between unemployment and wage increases.

Alternative wage specifications using prices and productivity yield good results only in explanning long term wage behavior: real wages and productivity increase by the same rate in the long run average. Prices and productivity terms used as explanatory variables in yearly or quarterly equations perform less satisfactorily than the Phillips curve, indicating less explanatory power for short run fluctuations of wages.

The price equations follow the commonly accepted specification with cost, demand and exogenous variables. The results indicate that the average level of inflation might be cost determined and that the deviation could be due to demand pressure and exogenous price variations (import prices and prices of agricultural goods are treated as exogenous).

Zusammenfassung

Die empirischen Ergebnisse lassen eine Dreiteilung der Inflationsursachen in Österreich in:

  1. 1.

    Kosteninflation,

  2. 2.

    Nachfrageinflation,

  3. 3.

    “Exogene” Inflation,

vermuten. Der Beitrag der monetären Größen zu den Preissteigerungen dürfte sowohl in der Nachfrageinflation als auch in der Kosteninflation zu suchen sein.

Die Grenzen zwischen Nachfrage- und Kosteninflation sind jedoch sehr fließend, da es z. B. eine Streitfrage sein kann, ob man eine Preissteigerung auf Grund einer durch eine sehr starke Nachfrage am Arbeitsmarkt ausgelöste Lohnsteigerung eher als Kosten- oder als Nachfrageinflation betrachten soll. Diese Grenzen zu ziehen bzw. den Einfluß der Geldpolitik zu identifizieren, wäre die Aufgabe eines Gesamtmodelles.

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Additional information

Die Arbeit an diesem Problemkreis wurde im Rahmen einer Diplomarbeit des Autors bei Herrn Prof. Dr.H. Frisch 1972/73 begonnen. Für die sorgfältige Durchsicht der vorliegenden Fassung ist der Autor Herrn Prof. Dr.E. Streissler zu Dank verpflichtet.

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Wörgötter, A. Lohn- und Preisgleichungen für Österreich. Empirica 2, 57–77 (1975). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00924907

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