Investigations are currently underway to evaluate the impact of potentially adverse conditions (e.g. volcanism, faulting, seismicity) on the waste-isolation capability of the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA. This paper is the first in a series that will examine the probability of disruption of the Yucca Mountain site by volcanic eruption. In it, we discuss three estimating techniques for determining the recurrence rate of volcanic eruption (λ), an important parameter in the Poisson probability model. The first method is based on the number of events occurring over a certain observation period, the second is based on repose times, and the final is based on magma volume. All three require knowledge of the total number of eruptions in the Yucca Mountain area during the observation period (E). Following this discussion we then propose an estimate of E which takes into account the possibility of polygenetic and polycyclic volcanism at all the volcanic centers near the Yucca Mountain site.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.
Buy single article
Instant access to the full article PDF.
Price includes VAT for USA
Subscribe to journal
Immediate online access to all issues from 2019. Subscription will auto renew annually.
This is the net price. Taxes to be calculated in checkout.
Condit CD, Crumpler LS, Aubele JC, Elston WE (1989) Patterns of volcanism along the southern margin of the Colorado plateau: the Springerville Field. J Geophys Res 94:1975–1986
Crowe BM (1980) Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion. Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory Rep PNL-2882
Crowe BM, Carr WJ (1980) Preliminary assessment of the risk of volcanism at a proposed nuclear waste repository in the Southern Great Basin. US Geol Survey Open-File Rep 80-375, 15 p
Crowe BM, Johnson ME, Beckman RJ (1982) Calculation of the probability of volcanic disruption of a high-level radioactive waste repository within Southern Nevada, USA. Radioactive Waste Management 3:167–190
Crowe BM, Self S, Vaniman D, Amos R, Perry F (1983) Aspects of potential magmatic disruption of a high-level radioactive waste repository in Southern Nevada. J Geol 91:259–276
Crowe BM, Harrington C, Turrin B, Champion D, Wells S, Perry F, McFadden L, Renault C (1989) Volcanic hazard studies for the Yucca Mountain Project. Waste Management 89, Vol 1. High Level Waste and General Interest, pp 485–491
Crowe BM, Perry FV (1989) Volcanic probability calculations for the Yucca Mountain site: estimation of volcanic rates. Focus '89, Nuclear waste isolation in the unsaturated zone, September, 1989, hosted by the Nevada section of the American Nuclear Society, pp 326–334
Ellis R, Gulick D (1986) Calculus (3rd) Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York
Gardner JK, Knopoff L (1974) Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363–1367
Ho CH (1990) Bayesian analysis of volcanic eruptions. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 43:91–98
Ho CH (1991) Time trend analysis of basaltic volcanism for the Yucca Mountain site. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 46:61–72
Hogg RV, Tanis EA (1988) Probability and statistical inference, 3rd edn. Macmillan, New York
Klein FW (1982) Patterns of historical eruptions at Hawaii volcanoes. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 12:1–35
Klein FW (1984) Eruption forecasting at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. J Geophys Res 89:3059–3073
McGuire RK, Barnhard P (1981) Effects of temporal variations in seismicity on seismic hazard. Bull Seismol Soc Am 71:321–334
Mulargia F, Gasperini PI, Tinti S (1987) Identifying different regimes in eruptive activity: an application to Etna volcano. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 34:89–106
Parzen E (1962) Stochastic processes. Holden-Day, San Francisco
Smith EI, Feuerbach DL, Naumann TR, Faulds JE (1990a) The area of most recent volcanism near Yucca Mountain, Nevada: Implications for volcanic risk assessment. Proceedings of the International Topical Meeting, High-Level Radioactive Waste Management: American Nuclear Society/American Society of Civil Engineers, Vol 1, pp 81–90
Smith EI, Feuerbach DL, Naumann TR, Faulds JE (1990b) Annual Report of the Center for Volcanic and Tectonic Studies for the period 10-1-89 to 9-30-90. The Nuclear Waste Project Office, Report No 41
Wadge G (1982) Steady state volcanism: evidence from eruption histories of polygenetic volcanoes. J Geophys Res 87:4035–4049
Wells SG, McFadden LD, Renault CE, Crowe BM (1990) Geomorphic assessment of late Quaternary volcanism in the Yucca Mountain area, southern Nevada: implications for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository. Geolog 18:549–553
Wickman FE (1966) Repose-period patterns of volcanoes. Ark Mineral Geol 4:291–367
Wickman FE (1976) Markov models of repose-period patterns of volcanoes. In: Merriam DF (ed) Random processes in geology. Springer, New York Berlin Heidelberg, pp 135–161
Paper financed by the Nuclear Waste Project Office, State of Nevada, USA
About this article
Cite this article
Ho, C., Smith, E.I., Feuerbach, D.L. et al. Eruptive probability calculation for the Yucca Mountain site, USA: statistical estimation of recurrence rates. Bull Volcanol 54, 50–56 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00278205
- Recurrence Rate
- Probability Model
- Statistical Estimation
- Mountain Area