Abstract
The drought results surprisingly and somewhat counter-intuitively indicated that drought (both frequency and severity) does not determine which treaties will have climate related complaints. Drought does not occur any more frequently in basins that have reported climate related conflict than it does in other basins: treaties with climate complaints are in absolute and relative drought less often, have a lower overall drought severity, and have less variability than treaties that have no conflict. Therefore, drought is not the primary cause or determiner of whether a treaty is going to have climate related conflict.
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Notes
- 1.
There are several other explanations not explored in depth in this analysis. A likely avenue for future consideration and research would investigate whether or not nations with a predisposition towards and a history of conflict would preemptively design their treaties with more robust mechanisms to manage, and prevent, conflict. This research would likely entail research into the creation process and negotiations of a broad range of treaties where conflict after signing was more likely than in other basins.
- 2.
It is important to note that there is no evidence that the mechanisms with negative coefficients have a direct causal relationship with conflict and complaints. The results of the regression analysis using the seven mechanisms are intended to help evaluate mechanism differences between conflict and non-conflict treaties to better consider the interactions that some mechanisms (e.g. communications and specificity ) may have with each other regarding complaint occurrence. The regression equations are not intended as precise indicators of where any treaty weakness originates or where conflict may occur.
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© 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Zentner, M. (2011). Conclusions. In: Design and impact of water treaties. Springer Theses. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23743-0_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23743-0_7
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