Abstract
The Mediterranean region is characterized by the accumulation of aerosols from numerous and various sources, which have very important effects on its climate. Therefore, the evolution of aerosols in future is expected to influence climate projections over this region which is already seen as a climate change “hotspot”. In this study realized in the framework of the ChArMEx and HyMeX programmes of the MISTRALS initiative, we consider a regional climate modelling approach, using the ALADIN-climate model which includes an interactive aerosol scheme, in order to better understand the future evolution of aerosols and their impact on future climate. Simulations have been carried out over past (1971–2000) and future (2071–2100) periods. The evolution of aerosols is driven both by changes in anthropogenic emissions, and the changes in climate variables, such as surface wind, that drive natural emissions such as dust uplift. Both a decrease in sulfate aerosols coming from Europe and an increase of dust emissions in northern Africa are expected by the end of the 21st Century. The decrease in sulfate concentrations could contribute to about 10 % of the expected warming over Europe.
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Nabat, P., Kiki, Somot, S., Mallet, M., Michou, M. (2016). Impact of Aerosols in Regional Climate Projections Over the Mediterranean Area. In: Steyn, D., Chaumerliac, N. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXIV. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24478-5_12
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24478-5_12
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